Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

As I have said in the past that I am not a big proponent of the Dow Theory(IMO I feel it is WAAAAY too late of a signal)

There have been many posters discussing the DOW THEORY of late.......and with todays avalanche type close (after attempting to once again rally) a SELL SIGNAL was confirmed as NEW lows in the DJ Industrials and Transports were BOTH confirmed simultaneously

Any thoughts guys?

Stephen

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

If its a sell theory today, thats hilarious. Wouldn't that put your net gain for the year at 0%?

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

Year ain't over yet. A short position may pay off nicely by Dec 31.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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If its a sell theory today, thats hilarious. Wouldn't that put your net gain for the year at 0%?

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As of now YES....and thats why IMO I feel the Dow Theory is WAAAAAY too late of a signal.But I also wouldnt be surprised to see some parabolic short covering RALLY into the New Year either at some time in the next few weeks......for more reasons than one [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Stephen

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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If its a sell theory today, thats hilarious. Wouldn't that put your net gain for the year at 0%?

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The sell signal is more for insurance so that you don't get caught in a sharp downturn.

In the 1929 Crash, most of the "experts" thought the first 15% drop was just a correction. When all was said and done, the dow dropped 89%.

The people who didn't get wiped out were the ones who set an arbitrary sell point, and got out before the real carnage.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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[ QUOTE ]
If its a sell theory today, thats hilarious. Wouldn't that put your net gain for the year at 0%?

[/ QUOTE ]

The sell signal is more for insurance so that you don't get caught in a sharp downturn.

In the 1929 Crash, most of the "experts" thought the first 15% drop was just a correction. When all was said and done, the dow dropped 89%.

The people who didn't get wiped out were the ones who set an arbitrary sell point, and got out before the real carnage.

[/ QUOTE ]

There was ONE major distinction from 1929- present time though.....as back then you could buy stocks with 10% down.

With many market participants being 90% MARGINED..... the severity/intensity of the crash was inevitable

SF

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
If its a sell theory today, thats hilarious. Wouldn't that put your net gain for the year at 0%?

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don't forget to factor in the devaluation of the dollar. anyone in the sp500 has lost 10% in purchasing power YTD.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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As I have said in the past that I am not a big proponent of the Dow Theory(IMO I feel it is WAAAAY too late of a signal)

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your favorite signal/signals of a coming bear market?

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've learned something in these past few attempts at guaging the fed. do not underestimate the fed's willingness to cut rates.

inflation expectations have been well anchored and the fed i think will continue to test them.

id expect a cut and further expect the fed to (arguably justifiably) state the reason as tightening credit conditions and the likely ensuing hit to consumer spending.

exports = 12% GDP.
spending = 70%GDP.

so a 10% drop in spending hurts more than a 50% increase in exports helps.

many studies estimate the following relationships:

a $100 fall in financial welath reduces consumer spending $3-$5 and acts very quickly (no lag, same quarter affect)

a $100 fall in housing prices reduces consumer spending $4-$9 and takes a long time to work through the system (long lag)

basically this means that housing will be a significant drag on the economy in all likelihood while at the same time, falling asset values could hurt spending even more which could produce a 10% overall drop in spending, which would in effect take at least a full point off of GDP.

given all that i'd thinkt he fed could justify further cuts.

Barron

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

Could be. I doubt it helps much of anything. The pop will likely be short-lived, as people do their tax-loss selling into it. Shorts that have been covering are looking for a pop to reload into.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Fed has to cut rates or hundreds of banks will be on the verge of bankruptcy. That is why futures trading is giving it a 92% probability.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As I have said in the past that I am not a big proponent of the Dow Theory(IMO I feel it is WAAAAY too late of a signal)

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your favorite signal/signals of a coming bear market?

[/ QUOTE ]

From a TRADERS perspective ....I use much faster time frames with regard to TA , along with some FA to assist me .Since leaving WS on a permanant basis....I obv. still trade my family/personal accounts quite often.....in fact DAILY of late....ESP. when the volatility spikes as it has the last month.Yesterdays close,was almost a "throw in the towel" mentality before the holiday WE,after the market failed to rally the last HR,and any good trader saw that coming a mile away.

However it was in NO way a capitulation type collapse that I would REALLY like to see in order to put in some/ANY sort of short term market bottom.Making LOWER LOWS in during these sell-offs is STILL very negative IMO

These recent FAILED attempts at rallying have been met with WAVES of selling/shorting the majority of the last 10 sessions or so....esp. in the final HR.

Below is another FREE program that will give you a FASTER buy/sell signal time frame ..using a 13dma and 50 dma crossover.....it actuallywill give you a RED SELL signal....and GREEN BUY signal at the bottom of the chart.The chart I have showing is SPY(which is the ETF instrument containing the basket of stocks in the S+P 500).If you look at the lttle RED SELL signal showing in the middle of the page....it was actually cinfirmed early LAST WEEK.As a shorter term trader...the DOW THEORY signal....is WAAAY too late for me.

If anything....I can see the market(as I mentioned above) having a HUGE RALLY before years end,as the BEAR CAMP is also getting abit too crowed for me,from a contrarian POV

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/d...3fSymbol%3dqqqq

Obviously....it is NOT 100% reliable and in NO WAY am I implying it to be "the end all be all" of trading......but IMO its a great little tool to learn technical analysis and a fun thing to tinker with for the new guys.It actually is quite accurate when in comes to some positions on a SWING TRADE time frame basis .You can enter any stock, ETF,etc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

On a personal note about some recent questions I have been asked:
I have been heavily SHORT the finanacial and home building sectors since the JUNE/JULY disclosure of the first signs of the sub-prime mess...and STILL am

I also RECENTLY shorted the S+P,and QQQQ's(actually LONG QID) last week once again.

I have also started SHORTING some WAAAY overheated tech stocks that have BEEN FAILING miserably the last two weeks.

I am starting to make some sort of game plan as to COVERING some of these short positions coinciding with bottom fishing/BUYING-COVERING some of these beaten up stocks in the financial arena before years end.

A successful play/HEDGE that has worked GREAT over the last few months... "was" to SHORT the financials,and go LONG tech.It has been quite profitable...but that trade is getting overcrowded now too

I will update this often ,and answer any NON specific questions as to MY OWN personal holdings.If a MOD could make a consolidated thread about DAILY TRADING/POSITIONS or something,that would be great.... BUT:

***I cannot get into much detail as to MY ACTUAL positions ,nor RECO. any particular stock . I am still a registered rep(even though I dont deal with any public clients anymore on a business relationship)

Some of these other STOCK FORUMS have become breeding grounds for PUMP and DUMP schemes,front running,fraud,ect. Also being the former CEO of my firm, I am still bound by some disclosure issues for 2 more yrs.

I OBV still have my LONG TERM holdings,funds,stocks/bonds that I really dont even look at...as the things I will talk about are regarding my trading/short term ideas only****

I can however STILL talk about the market in general terms though [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Happy Thanksgiving Guys
Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

barron,

yes, but I think 50bp is out of the question this meeting. Given that I hold the view of no rate cut 50%, 1/2 cut 50% 1/2 cut 0%, and there is already slightly more than 1/4 pont cut built in, isnt it a risk free play (obviously if my opinion on the possibilities is accurate)?

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

stephen,

[ QUOTE ]
Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

I personally think a cut would be outragous. There is just no way they have inflation under control. I think they should be more concerned about the inflation right now as commodities are rallying than growth. However, as pointed out earlier the Fed has proven to been more than willing to cut the rates and don't seem to care about inflation at all. So who knows. However, I do agree Ahnuld that 50bp is out of the question.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Fed has to cut rates or hundreds of banks will be on the verge of bankruptcy.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is a Fed cut going to change that?

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

I feel this historical signal is a bit misleading due to it's occurance on such a low volume day. Next Monday's market will provide a better signal, if the market finishes lower Monday than Wednesdays close it will be worth considering, if not it is more like the August lows.

Jimbo

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
stephen,

[ QUOTE ]
Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first read this quote,I didnt quit know how to take it or respond to it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]?

Now after thinking about my reply for awhile.....I have an idea......but I would appeciate some specific thoughts FROM YOU....then I think I can/WILL help [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
stephen,

[ QUOTE ]
Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first read this quote,I didnt quit know how to take it or respond to it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]?

Now after thinking about my reply for awhile.....I have an idea......but I would appeciate some specific thoughts FROM YOU....then I think I can/WILL help [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

My comment was actual regarding this comment.... [ QUOTE ]
***I cannot get into much detail as to MY ACTUAL positions ,nor RECO. any particular stock . I am still a registered rep(even though I dont deal with any public clients anymore on a business relationship)

[/ QUOTE ]

Things I would like to know is how you go about picking a company you like and deciding if you are going to invest. Seems the coming year will be more beneficial for a stock picker than holding an index fund.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

Jey dazraf69!

I had a FEELING that is what you were getting at.... so I didnt want to comment before I was sure.....and do appreciate your interest in my advice in the TRADING side of the stock market.

As I have said before I will NOT reco specific stocks...but I would LOVE to start a THREAD/sub catagory to address EVERY aspect of TRADING/Stock selection issue that I know of ...that would truly help you guys formulate decisions helped by my 20+ yrs of experience,and become SUCCESSFUL traders/investors day over day,year over year.

I am OBVIOUSLY depending/would appreciate others participation,ideas,input,feedback,etc as well

If ANY of you guys are offended or not interested or just "hate the idea"...just holla" now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I am leaving for Las Vegas later early TOMM. morning.In fact besides going out there to "hopefully" buy/close on a new vacation home that I have been discussing on other threads...I also am more than likely playing in the Venetian NPL series and Bellagio 5D events with some CASH games in between.(so I dont know how much time I will have the next few weeks)

BUT....I am contacting AHNULD (or other MODS please chime in) NOW to ask about starting a "STOCK MARKET TRADING" thread if possible...so we can keep it somewhat organized,and everthing is in ONE basic place?

Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

I like the idea. I've been shall we say short term oriented for awhile. Recently I've taken some positions in mortgage reits that deal with agency MBS exclusively. They're doing fairly well and definitly in investment in an idea and I'm holding longer term maybe.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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I like the idea.

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My only hope/suggestion is to make it such that, we are focused on the educational aspect (much like you would find in a book) rather than "what do you think about this stock" type thread. The difference of course would be first person perspective.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I like the idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

My only hope/suggestion is to make it such that, we are focused on the educational aspect (much like you would find in a book) rather than "what do you think about this stock" type thread. The difference of course would be first person perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I have said before just from a disclosure POV....I would make it EXETREMLY educational for all types of investors [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

ugh, I can't take it anymore, I'm not reading any more of your posts when you are capitalizing every other word.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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ugh, I can't take it anymore, I'm not reading any more of your posts when you are capitalizing every other word.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK......THAT ENDS THIS IDEA/SUGGESTION

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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ugh, I can't take it anymore, I'm not reading any more of your posts when you are capitalizing every other word.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK......THAT ENDS THIS IDEA/SUGGESTION

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Considering I have yet to see one contributing post by crushinfelt in BFI, I hope you reconsider.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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ugh, I can't take it anymore, I'm not reading any more of your posts when you are capitalizing every other word.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK......THAT ENDS THIS IDEA/SUGGESTION

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Considering I have yet to see one contributing post by crushinfelt in BFI, I hope you reconsider.

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Naaah....unfortunately 2+2 continues to be littered with vermon like crushinfelt whether it be on the HSNL forums, where I have had many a battle with the kiddie patrols before over the same chit....and I guess it even permeates the BFI forum as well.

I wont waste my time in what I thought would be quite helpful as well as constructive.I was looking foward to this,as Ahnuld the mod,responded positively to me via PM this afternoon

We will see what CF contributes to BFI going foward,so I can disect his input under a [censored] microscope,but wasting my time dealing with this crap isnt what it was intended to be

Its a real shame how most internet forums suck bigtime,no matter what subject line they specialize in or how many other members enjoy them.

It seems if it aint this douchebag CF worrying about using capital letters....others will crash the party anyway

The anonymous ability to post makes these forums make them a breeding ground for azzholes like this.

If 95% of these [censored] jerkoffs had to spend just $10 a month....this and most good sites would rid themselves of these non-contributing dicks
Stephen Feraca [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

Im not gonna ban CF or anything but I would appreciate it if you toned it down a little and tried to post a bit more respectfully crushin.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

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We will see what CF contributes ...

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Not worth your time, mine or anyone elses. I don't use the ignore user feature but I refrain from reading some people's posts no matter what they post. He's one that I do now

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.... It seems if it aint this douchebag CF ...

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Got that right.


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The anonymous ability to post makes these forums make them a breeding ground for azzholes like this.

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A guy by the name of John Feeney who has a PHD in psychology wrote about the psychology of such posters awhile back (he also wrote a book about poker published by 2+2). Definitely some issues with self esteem.

[ QUOTE ]
If 95% of these [censored] jerkoffs had to spend just $10 a month....this and most good sites would rid themselves of these non-contributing dicks


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree totally. I subscribe to a pay site for the markets and the signal to noise ratio is sooooooo much higher.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

I would love if you gave any insight on this stuff stephen. You have been nothing but respectful to me(despite my age), and I would immensely enjoy any and all comments you gave about the market for me/others to learn from.

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would love if you gave any insight on this stuff stephen. You have been nothing but respectful to me(despite my age), and I would immensely enjoy any and all comments you gave about the market for me/others to learn from.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

Stephen,

How can you possibly get so upset after one post? I don't mean this to be insulting but it is really surprising. One little comment and you are acting like a school girl who won't share her candy because her friend made fun of her. I was very impressed with your background. I lurk a lot around here hoping to pick up any knowledge. I am sure the vast majority of the people in BFI would be very grateful if you tried to teach us a thing or two, I know I would [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stephen,

How can you possibly get so upset after one post? I don't mean this to be insulting but it is really surprising. One little comment and you are acting like a school girl who won't share her candy because her friend made fun of her. I was very impressed with your background. I lurk a lot around here hoping to pick up any knowledge. I am sure the vast majority of the people in BFI would be very grateful if you tried to teach us a thing or two, I know I would [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just venting about the IDIOTS like CF who make assinine comments from left field on these type forums [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

When I return from LV,we can start at that time,as I will have more time to properly devote some attention to it.

However...if a few of you want to put together some posts/threads/questions/ideas/etc.... to give me some clues as to what specifics you are looking for in trading/investing....start now,as I will have my laptop while away and can chime in from there

As I said before though...I want to help you learn how to trade and invest...NOT just me reading a chart and being asked.."what do you think I should do"?

ttyl,
Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]