worst boat on the lake
 

hero raises Q9s in hijack, villain colds call otb (no read other than he just cold called), bb calls

flop QcJc9
bb checks, hero bets, villain raises, hero 3bets, villain caps

turn A
hero checks, villain bets, hero calls

river 9c
hero bets planning on calling a raise.

is my river line all F'd up here. anyone do anything else differently

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

I 3bet the river.
The only plausible Hand that beats you is imo AA and nothing more.You Beat KT,T8,Flush,J9.He could easily be on a combo draw(well that would suck if he has KT of clubs), so I think you have the 66%(?) you need for 3betting the river.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

Id say your 75% to win. Bet Bet BET

If he has A9 QQ JJ K10c well then it is what it is. Bet this everytime in low stakes and you'll be way ahead. His most likely hand is the flush.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

He bet the ace on the turn, way more scary than the 9 on the river... ch/r the river and prolly just call 3 bet.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

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CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

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Re: worst boat on the lake
 

hehe pretty much what i expected to hear. I kinda luckboxed my way into picking a good line for what he had (one of a few hands that would check behind KQ or QJ) I planned to call a raise but im guessing had he raised and I thought about it I probably would have 3bet. I actually had more of a read than I included but didnt have my notes on the player readily available.

I think u can play devils advocate for both donking and not putting in more money if he raises or 3bets ur check-raise though.(not that Im saying either is right)?

What range of hands would u guys say a not great not terrible player 3bets a cr with or raises a flop donk with? How about a solid player? How about u, what would u raise on the river if u were donked into or check-raised

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

every boat +

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

wicked weak bet/call on that river.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

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if you c/r, and get 3bet, you are losing almost always. putting in 4 bets in on this river is too much. Two is either just right or too weak.

The problem with 3, is you are back to being done almost always.

I'd probably c/r and call a 3bang.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

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CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

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if you c/r, and get 3bet, you are losing almost always. putting in 4 bets in on this river is too much. Two is either just right or too weak.

The problem with 3, is you are back to being done almost always.

I'd probably c/r and call a 3bang.

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I dont see how the hero's losing even after being 3bet, so I would cap the river and expect to see an overplayed straight, overplayed T9s, J9s or Q9s most of the time.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

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CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

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if you c/r, and get 3bet, you are losing almost always. putting in 4 bets in on this river is too much. Two is either just right or too weak.

The problem with 3, is you are back to being done almost always.

I'd probably c/r and call a 3bang.

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I dont see how the hero's losing even after being 3bet, so I would cap the river and expect to see an overplayed straight, overplayed T9s, J9s or Q9s most of the time.

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I misread the PF. I thought the OP raised, and the button 3banged PF.

If this was the PF action, would you agree with me then?


sorry for the confusion, just keep betting and hope for the best [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

his most likely hands for me after preflop and the flop are QJ KQ J9 KT Q9 or AQ (which id be surprised to see not 3bet preflop) also maybe something like Acxc particularly AT of clubs.

On the river I think QJ KQ check behind. I doubt AQ or KT raise a river donk (probably being too skeptical here but thats part of the great part about not minding calling a raise when u donk is this possibility of a worse hand raising for value) and I definitely dont think those 2 hands 3bet a check-raise. The ace high flush may 3bet a cr and obviously QQ JJ AA Q9 J9 do (the first three should obviously be discounted due to preflop).

This is basically just what went through my head in about the 5 seconds between the time the river card came out and I had to pick a button to push. Just that his most likely hands may check behind (the weaker ones) and the stronger but still worser hands mite raise my donk (but didnt want to give the other better hands a chance to cap which with our likely equity was probably a mistake). I just thought after the flop and turn action if he still wanted to put more bets in after i donk or cr ON THIS RIVER it probably skews his hands moreso to something he played odd preflop?

I dont think ive been in the bet call camp too often in these kinda spots (and really still am not here)since usually u gain the same ahead as if u check and lose more behind vs check call and often are more likely to get 2 bets in good by cr'ing vs bet calling, but it doesnt seem quite as clear cut here since i lose value to some hands that check behind and I can still get 2 bets in good by donking pretty often. Obviously I didnt really think the hand through at the time though.

Re: worst boat on the lake
 

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his most likely hands for me after preflop and the flop are QJ KQ J9 KT Q9 or AQ (which id be surprised to see not 3bet preflop) also maybe something like Acxc particularly AT of clubs.

On the river I think QJ KQ check behind. I doubt AQ or KT raise a river donk (probably being too skeptical here but thats part of the great part about not minding calling a raise when u donk is this possibility of a worse hand raising for value) and I definitely dont think those 2 hands 3bet a check-raise. The ace high flush may 3bet a cr and obviously QQ JJ AA Q9 J9 do (the first three should obviously be discounted due to preflop).

This is basically just what went through my head in about the 5 seconds between the time the river card came out and I had to pick a button to push. Just that his most likely hands may check behind (the weaker ones) and the stronger but still worser hands mite raise my donk (but didnt want to give the other better hands a chance to cap which with our likely equity was probably a mistake). I just thought after the flop and turn action if he still wanted to put more bets in after i donk or cr ON THIS RIVER it probably skews his hands moreso to something he played odd preflop?

I dont think ive been in the bet call camp too often in these kinda spots (and really still am not here)since usually u gain the same ahead as if u check and lose more behind vs check call and often are more likely to get 2 bets in good by cr'ing vs bet calling, but it doesnt seem quite as clear cut here since i lose value to some hands that check behind and I can still get 2 bets in good by donking pretty often. Obviously I didnt really think the hand through at the time though.

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Heres a simple model you can construct to figure out whether you should bet/3bet the river or check/raise cap the river.

First put the villain on these 4 hands:

KT,QJ,J9s,T8s.

Then count the combinations of each type of hand to figure out how often the villain will have each hand.

It turns out the villain will have a straight 74.1% of the time. J9s for a lower boat 3.7% of the time and QJ 22.2% of the time.

Assume that if you go for a check/raise the villain will bet/call with a straight, bet/3bet with J9 allowing you to cap, and check behind with QJ. This gives you an expectation of 1.63BB's.

Now construct what you think is a realistic model for bet/3betting the river and then compare its expected value to check/raising the river and you will then have a better idea which line is best.

If you think my model is too simple or unrealistic you can always modify it yourself. My main point is figuring out whether you should check/raise or bet/3bet is not that hard. All you need is a pencil and a piece of paper.