25NL - AKS (LC)
 

anybody playing this differently?
villain is 8/4/0 over like 15 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $24.40
BB: $25.40
UTG: $17.80
Hero (UTG+1): $26.30
MP1: $17.05
MP2: $25.00
MP3: $27.70
CO: $29.10
BTN: $32.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 4 folds, BTN calls $1.25, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, BTN calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, BTN calls $4.50

River: ($16.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 8/4/0 over like 15 hands

[/ QUOTE ]I sure hope his stats don't influence your decision. He's probably not terrible but these are not likely to define his real stats. I play like this at some tables for &gt;100 hands and my stats are 15/10/2.5.

I like the hand.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

nah not really. when he called called called i put him on 'station'

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

I think I would bet a little more on the turn, river bet is allright although you could probly squeeze a little more out of him.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

I'd bet $10 on the river, but this looks pretty good.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

The play look s fine to me. You played the hand in a straightforward manner, which I think is good at our level. <font color="blue">Are you having some doubts, Zyrrth? And if so: why?</font>

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

cause i lost ldo

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

but did you bet/fold like you said before editing your post or bet/call because folding is pretty bad.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

he called my bet with his set. Initially i was gonna b/f but after posting i noticed i only had a minraise left behind so i dunno if i would have been able to fold.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

When I read your post the first few times, I thought to myself: "What's his problem, he just got unlucky." I admit I would have played the hand just about the same way. My analysis below, however, suggests that the play on the river and possibly also on the turn, would not be correct.

It is very unlikely that he had a straight draw on any street. So let's say that he made at least top pair on the flop. I would put him on 66, TT, KQs, or AK after he called you on the flop. According to pokerstove you have 46% equity against this range.

On the turn, you again were called, which I don't think narrows down our hand range any further.

On the river you made your top two pair.

Let's assume that he would've called with just kings, i.e. pocket KQ. You would lose the pot against the 66 (3 combinations), and TT (3 combinations), and split the pot against AK (4 combinations). You would win only against the KQ suited (2 combinations). Your equity would be only 33%.

Let's assume that he would've folded the KQ suited and would've just called any other hand. You would win the $16.60 in the pot right after the turn if your opponent had KQs. You would get $8.30 if your opponent had AK. You would lose your $8 bet if you were called. EV=(2x$16.60-6x$8.00+4x$8.30)/12hands=$1.53/hand.

If your opponent would have played his hand the same way if you bet just $6 instead of $8, EV would be 2x$16.60-6x$6.00+4x$8.30)/12hands=$2.53/hand.

Ideally you would want your opponent to check behind you if you check. EV=2x$16.60-6x$0.00+4x$8.30)/12hands=$5.53/hand.

Since you're opponent is not likely to check if you check, you should block bet. I would block bet about $5 and pray that he just calls.

A similar reasoning probably also applies to the turn play. <font color="blue">Does anyone disagree with my analysis? If so, why?</font>

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

I'd bet more on the turn, and river

but this looks ok

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

I just argued that we should want to keep the pot as small as possible on the river and possibly on the turn, because we are probably beat and you say that you would probably bet more, thereby achieving the contrary.

Why would you bet more on the turn and the river? What is your reasoning?

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

I am checking the turn; although the stats are only after 15 hands my opinion is that you have to go with what you got. That means on the turn you are WA/WB, his range is something like KQs, JJ, QQ, TT, 66 (just maybe maybe QJs). He probably won't call again with JJ or QQ but he might raise with TT or 66 although he isn't aggressive, I think he will call with KQs. I really don't mind getting a free card here. If he bets the turn I call and check fold river. If he checks I bet the river for value. No this is not results oriented.

Re: 25NL - AKS (LC)
 

[ QUOTE ]
although the stats are only after 15 hands my opinion is that you have to go with what you got.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the wrong way to think about it. We treat everyone as 'unknown' until we have enough evidence to the contrary. 15 hands is nowhere near enough.
So I think your hand ranges are too tight.

As for the hand I probably play it the same as the OP. Sometimes I would be checking TPTK behind on the turn, but the flush draw sways me. (Is this wrong?)