2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Stats where like 22/8, don´t remember exactly. I have been
playing very tight.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($15.50)
Button ($28.10)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($31.85)
UTG+1 ($68.45)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($29.60)</font>
MP2 ($25.05)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($31.15)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.85) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $0.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($6.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $27.85</font>, Hero ??????


Usually i fold PF, but the table was loose and i was card dead. Call or fold river ?

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

I suspect he has a set and was hoping to have more people put money into the pot before he made his move. I fold.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Raise more on the flop. You're beat almost undoubtedly, but you have 13 outs to make the nuts (unless he has A8). It's $23 more to call and there's $6.50+$4.50+$28=$39 in the pot. So you need to be like 36% here and if you're beat (which you will be most of the time), you'll be 29% to win. I think it's close enough that you can gambool.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

i fold... set or possibly 67... A8 even has u beat... hard to tell how many outs u have here...

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Yeah but is it really impossible for this to be combo draw with hearts or lower two-pair? Unlikely, I agree, but really we don't have to have the best hand very often to call here.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Reraise bigger on the flop. I treat villians mini-bet like a check and raise the size of the pot around 2.00.

I think you can fold this turn to the shove. Villain really likes his hand and this is a stack-a-donk line with a set a lot here. What was villain's post flop agg?

I think Cheese makes some valid points, especially about this maybe being a heart flush draw. Prolly still fold cause I'm weak tight though.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

6(!) players saw the flop. MP1 has 67, a set or A 8 far too often to call IMO.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Hows this for villains range?
55-44,A8s,76s,A8o,76o

-
5,202,726 games 28.504 secs 182,526 games/sec

Board: 5h Ah 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.411% 28.41% 00.00% 1478310 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 71.589% 71.60% 00.00% 3725064 0.00 { 55-44, 76s, 76o }


---



---
4,219,994 games 38.016 secs 111,005 games/sec

Board: 5h Ah 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.646% 27.65% 00.00% 1166693 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 72.355% 72.36% 00.00% 3053514 0.00 { 55-44, A8s, 76s, A8o, 76o }


With either range you are about 28%. Youre not getting the right price. Fold. I guess that we could redo this and ad a flush draw to his range, but I really dont think its that likely here.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more on the flop. You're beat almost undoubtedly, but you have 13 outs to make the nuts (unless he has A8). It's $23 more to call and there's $6.50+$4.50+$28=$39 in the pot. So you need to be like 36% here and if you're beat (which you will be most of the time), you'll be 29% to win. I think it's close enough that you can gambool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would put more money in the pot on the flop and turn so that this decision is easier. But now that you're here,

Gaammmboooool!!!!

If it's at all close like this, I would never fold with a draw to the nut flush and second FH. His most likely set is 44, so your A, 5 and all of your club outs are in play. You have 30% equity in the pot most of the time if you are behind (which is likely more often than not), he's going to occasionally show up with A4, 45, 8h9h, 8hTh and a few other things you crush, and he's going to bluff a non-zero percentage of the time. You have plenty of equity to be all-in there. Plus, gambling is fun.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

fold.

against sets, a bigger 2 pair, you're nearly a 3:1 dog. 67 is a sometimes'ish limp from his position, but feasible. Even if we add in a drawing hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] your equity doesn't rise enough to make the call.

If you can add A4 to his range, you're about a 60:40 dog, making the call close. But not clearly profitable...

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

fold but depends on your read

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Interesting discussion ! My feeling was that his shove makes no sense. If he has a set or a straight he either wants to make sure money goes in or he wants a save river to shove...

With so many outs i just had to call and i made my flush but didn´t need it because villain showed me 8h4h. Guess it´s plus/minus zero to call here.

By the way: PT says his AF was &lt;1 after 40 hands.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

If he has a set or a straight he could shoving for protection on a very drawy board. I don't think the analysis that led you to call is correct.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

check the turn? I know you have a decent hand but when somebody cold calls a bet and raise I'm not trying to play a huge pot esp when the straight draw gets there on the turn. Calling turn is bad.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

With the line the took, I just don't see how you can fold. You are only priced out against his worst case hands. People who take awkward lines rarely have only the nuts in their ranges. I don't think that this is a big money maker, but there are just too many hands that you beat outright to just fold given that you have redraws to the nuts. People get all in with 45. People bluff. They just do. If your equity against their worst case is within 5% of what is being offered, look 'em up. People who take those sorts of lines are going to turn up atrocious hands often enough to make up for that 5%.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

[ QUOTE ]
People who take awkward lines often have top and middle pair beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]When fish put in huge amounts of money at the $25 and $50 they have 2p or better.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

Sure, sure. They often do have top and middle beaten. Just not always. The price we're being offered is reasonably close to the equity we have if the villain were to always have a set. The villain simply does not always have a set. He just doesn't. I think this is one of those places where you stack off more than you double up, but that the equity is easily positive.

I think the larger issue is that if you were to put more money in on the flop and turn, the decision isn't hard at all. It's only that we under bet that we left our decision that we had to think about. With aces up and the nut flush draw, we should be shoveling money in hand over fist. If he shoves, we call and start mumbling "club, club, club...."

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

[ QUOTE ]
The price we're being offered is reasonably close to the equity we have if the villain were to always have a set.

[/ QUOTE ] we're getting 1.49:1 on our call. Against a set we have 28.41% equity, we need 40.16% equity to call here. Coincidently against sets and 67 we have the same exact equity. I am only counting 44/55 as sets btw.

[ QUOTE ]
Usually i fold PF,

[/ QUOTE ] Didn't notice this until I did the math but folding preflop here is really really bad. Fold is the worst option.

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

[ QUOTE ]
With the line the took, I just don't see how you can fold. You are only priced out against his worst case hands. People who take awkward lines rarely have only the nuts in their ranges. I don't think that this is a big money maker, but there are just too many hands that you beat outright to just fold given that you have redraws to the nuts. People get all in with 45. People bluff. They just do. If your equity against their worst case is within 5% of what is being offered, look 'em up. People who take those sorts of lines are going to turn up atrocious hands often enough to make up for that 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're putting in 23.35 to win 38.95, and to me that seems like an overall loser in this spot given that you're generally a 2:1 dog in this spot.

Add in some strange hands, like 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and that number definitely comes closer to to 2.3-to-3.9, depending on how many more you can add.

However, I do think that you've raised a valid point in that we have a tendency to try and draw too many conclusions about a "villain" based on PT stats.

There's lots of hands that come through here, but not enough quality reads or information that would push the decisions clearly to + or - EV. I guess it's inevitable given the way you play poker online + multitable, but it does lower the overall quality of the posts in the forum.

I could happily go the rest of my life without seeing, "no reads, xx/xx/xx" or "villain is unknown, 1st hand at the table"...:)

Re: 2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25
 

In retrospect, I had us closer to needing 35% than 40%. I double added something or rounded too liberally somewhere. So, Chargers, I take it back, it's not so obvious a call. Given that we need 40%, it's a lot closer to break even in my mind. I think we can come up with reasonable ranges that leave us on both sides of that number. I think in that light, a call is neither good nor bad. If gambling in that sort of spot tilts you, definitely fold. If gambling tilts somebody who is going to rebuy, then I would still lean towards call given the line.

olliejen, you're right that pt stats can lead to a lot of sketchy conclusions. It also kills me that 22/8/2 is a "read". I must play too much live poker.