Set mine in multiway pot
 

I made a bet with a friend on whether this is supposed to be a call or a fold.

5/10, 1k effective, I open UTG to 35, UTG+1 calls, SB who is fairly agro makes it 135, BB calls, can I call here profitably with 22? I think UTG+1 is usually calling and almost never shoving.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

no

edit: i guess i should say "1 vote for no" altho what i really mean is "NO!"

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

no

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

hell ya call

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

I vote no

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Sure.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

because SB has a strong range in this spot, it is not bad. but usually this should be an instafold.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

only yes if on tilt, if so, then yES!

if not then nah, not really

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

You get a free card so often in these pots

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
no

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Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

i vote yes just because it's an utg open and a sb repot and a bb cold call. if you were otb i'd say easy fold.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
because SB has a strong range in this spot, it is not bad. but usually this should be an instafold.

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If you're saying that SB's "strong range [in this situation]" makes a call okay, what other situations are you referring to wherein this is "usually" a fold? By that I mean, what similar (but obviously not exactly alike) situations are you referring to? I'm not trying to bust your balls at all, genuinely curious what you meant.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

if UTG+1 is for sure only calling, this is at best neutral EV

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
because SB has a strong range in this spot, it is not bad. but usually this should be an instafold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're saying that SB's "strong range [in this situation]" makes a call okay, what other situations are you referring to wherein this is "usually" a fold? By that I mean, what similar (but obviously not exactly alike) situations are you referring to? I'm not trying to bust your balls at all, genuinely curious what you meant.

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because the original raiser was utg and not somewhere else, sb and bb's ranges are both stronger

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

no i would not call here.

you're almost never stacking the guy to your left, according to the range i put him on. occasionally he'll flop top 2 vs your set or a big draw vs your set, but every other time you are folding when you miss (i assume you aren't bluffing here often), and even the times you do get it in vs him you probably aren't that far ahead. add this to the times that he flops set over set on you, and that he has position, and you pretty much are have no discernable edge against him.

SB - aggro, he knows you are UTG so he has a stronger hand than most of his 3bets, still, he's messing around at least 15-20% of the time (meaning you aren't stacking him when you flop a set these hands). He's going to miss with AQ/AK sometimes, you won't stack him much of the time here, and you'll run set into set under set here.

I'm not sure why i went into so much detail to basically say "assuming these guys play even moderately well post flop, you just won't be stacking them a large enough percentage of the time that you do in fact flop a set to make up for the fact that the stack sizes are only 100 BB's.

fold this hand.

tc

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

No

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

To all those saying no, we only have to make like 400 to break even and our relative position is good. Can you make an argument on why we cannot make > 1 pot sized bet profit postflop?

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Maybe

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Taylor,

Thanks for taking your time to post this, as it is a super common situation that many people(in your opinion) play wrongly. What pair would be big enough for you to call here, and how deep would stacks be, optimally? By your logic, it seems as though 99 and 22 would be a nearly identical hand here(the exception being that we won't get stacked set under set vs. the bb as often). Not trying to be sarcastic in the least - this is a situation that I never got completely clear on in my transition from limit to NL. I also assume that you are folding 89s here? Or would you prefer a suited connector to a tiny pair in this spot. Would love to hear anyone's insight here. Thanks for any help!

James

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
To all those saying no, we only have to make like 400 to break even and our relative position is good. Can you make an argument on why we cannot make > 1 pot sized bet profit postflop?

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because of the increased % of the time you get your stack in with 1 out as opposed to bigger pairs

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Taylor,

Thanks for taking your time to post this, as it is a super common situation that many people(in your opinion) play wrongly. What pair would be big enough for you to call here, and how deep would stacks be, optimally? By your logic, it seems as though 99 and 22 would be a nearly identical hand here(the exception being that we won't get stacked set under set vs. the bb as often). Not trying to be sarcastic in the least - this is a situation that I never got completely clear on in my transition from limit to NL. I also assume that you are folding 89s here? Or would you prefer a suited connector to a tiny pair in this spot. Would love to hear anyone's insight here. Thanks for any help!

James

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I think 98s is way worse because the "good" flops for it are not as high equity as a set, rather they are things like combo draws and 2 pairs.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Then again, you get to semibluff when you flop something, so you're not solely relying on stacking someone to break even.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Probably obvious, but if you can't play 22 here to a reraise then you sure as hell shouldn't be opening with it UTG.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

what? what does that have to do with anything? are u saying that everything u open from EP should withstand a reraise? thats silly.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

ssnl?

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Taylor,

Thanks for taking your time to post this, as it is a super common situation that many people(in your opinion) play wrongly. What pair would be big enough for you to call here, and how deep would stacks be, optimally? By your logic, it seems as though 99 and 22 would be a nearly identical hand here(the exception being that we won't get stacked set under set vs. the bb as often). Not trying to be sarcastic in the least - this is a situation that I never got completely clear on in my transition from limit to NL. I also assume that you are folding 89s here? Or would you prefer a suited connector to a tiny pair in this spot. Would love to hear anyone's insight here. Thanks for any help!

James

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

"you only need to make 400 more to make this profitable"

You are assuming that you win 100 percent of the time here when you flop a set. I think it's much closer to 80% equity here if you get it all in. Set over set is a fairly big concern here especially if UTG+1 calls.

I usually make it a rule to always get at least 10:1 implied odds when set mining. In your case you need even more implied odds because it will most likely be 4 handed. You are basically calling 100 to win 1300 more so you can make a case for calling but it is very marginal either way.

You flop a set 2/15 assuming all your 2's are live so the math follows as such assuming you never bluff.

13/15 * -100
+
2/15 (.8(1300) - .2(1000))

= 25

pretty simple but also fairly accurate I believe

500 more and this is an easy call

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Thanks, this super clarifies.

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Then again, you get to semibluff when you flop something, so you're not solely relying on stacking someone to break even.

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you can't have it both ways. youre "putting him on AA so you can flop a set and stack him always so ur pf call is breakeven" or youre "putting him on AA and going to semibluff him off of it when he's already got half his stack in!"

mathematically this is a clear fold but it's certainly not an egregious mistake and maybe gives you more of a gambly image.

98s is far worse of course

Re: Set mine in multiway pot
 

Just to clairfy:

Are we folding because the reverse implied odds negate the juicy PF pot odds?