Weird AA line...
 

This is a hand someone I am coaching played.
MP2 is like 44/18/5.

What do you think of this line?

$200 PL Omaha
Seat 1: MP2 ( $528.16 )
Seat 10: MP1 ( $355 )
Seat 6: Hero ( $208.40 )
Seat 2: MP3 ( $167.94 )
Seat 9: UTG+2 ( $78.40 )
Seat 3: CO ( $170.50 )
Seat 4: Button ( $57.44 )
Seat 5: SB ( $67.45 )
Seat 8: UTG+1 ( $152.40 )
Seat 7: UTG ( $196 )

Dealt to Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes,
Hero raises $12, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets $45, SB folds, Hero raises $192, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises $294, Hero is all-In.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

I just give up this flops in general, but vs that villian play is ok.

- B

Re: Weird AA line...
 

it's a line I've taken when tilting or drunk, and I don't think it's +EV vs. any kind of largeish field. Give him a gutshot and another backdoor flush and I could get behind it against specific opponents. What is he pushing here that we're equitable against? TJQK?


and you can coach donators but can't even look over a few measly NL hands? After all I've done for you? At the very least you could stop sitting at my tables. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Weird AA line...
 

This play looks fine against a highly aggressive player who plays too many hands. Also, he has gotten to see the other two players show no interest.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

My primary concern with this line is that you are never a big favorite when called and against this aggro of a player he's going to be calling a lot. People often make incorrect assumptions about laggy players and how thin they bet the flop. Hero's hand is AA here always and it's a multiway pot, so assuming the Villian is bluffing with a hand AA beats or is in great shape against is a huge leak.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

Sorry I should have said the game is loose-passive. Players checking the flop in position against the PFR doesn't mean a whole lot.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

I think that hero's hand is wider then AA here. I see preflop raisers c/r sets fairly frequently against aggressive opponents, and if he has a good image he might have FE vs two pair. That said, I'd really rather have more then two outs of villian does have a set.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

Nah. He's never raising anything but aces out of the blinds, which is something he needs to work on. If he has a set he has AAQQ, AA66, or AA22, all of which are very unlikely and give the villian a lot of room to call with a pretty wide range profitably.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

I wouldn't suggest this as standard, just something to do once in a while especially when the right player bets.

Standard on this flop would be to bet.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

Working backwards, since we know that MP2 pushed back:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
say MP2 has a set the AAxx hand has a 16% pot equity. I'd say 25% of the time they have a set.

Let's say they are playing some raggedy ass crap and have TTP, I'd give that happening 25% of the time.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
That's a little better 28% pot equity on the flop.

I'll be generous and say that 50% of the time you are just up against Q***, there you are just 47% dog.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

So before MP2 pushes back, there should be some fold equity You'd have a better idea how often MP2 folds to a raise here. For now, I'll guess that it is 40%, but that's probably being generous.

****** Doing some math

So 40% of the time AA hand wins ~$80. That's EV +32.


** OF THE TIMES THAT MP2 PUSHES BACK AND IT IS ALL IN **
60% of the time MP2 pushes, AA comes over the top and of course MP2 is calling.
So AA is commiting ~200, pot will be ~$440.
25% of the time, you have a situation where AA dude has a 16% chance at winning $440 pot, that is a EV of +$70. However, 84% of the time he loses $200...for -EV -$168.

Another 25% of the time its (0.28)(440)-(0.72)(200).
+123 - 144 = +21

50% of the time its (.47)(440)-(.53)(200).
207-106 = +101

Overall for the times both go all in
(0.25)(-98) = -25
(0.25)(+21) = +21
(0.50)(+101)= 50.5
Total + 47


Overall then

60% of time it goes to the flop + 47 = + 28
40% fold equity of $80 = + 32

So pushing here with a reraise on the flop, based on these wild assumptions, and probable fault math, shows that the AA hand pushing nets an EV of +$60.

Re: Weird AA line...
 

Your assumptions are flawed because the fundamental problem here is that TAGs often incorrectly assumes laggy players will bet with absolutely anything because it's been checked around. In reality his FE is pretty close to zero.

I suppose I should point out that I was actually the villain in this hand and the coaching thing was BS.

It's multiway and a loose passive table so they only one pair hand I would be betting even in position that I would fold to a c/r here would be KKxx, but against a player this tight (his PFR<3%) I probably check. KQJT or something similar I would probably check behind and take a free card especially since I know the Hero in this hand pulls those kinds of weird checkraises.

Certainly this play could be profitable against someone that is so loose as to always bet here when checked to, but I have been seeing it attempted against me pretty consistently lately by TAGs and the primary result is that it allows me to play perfectly against them.

I had QQ42, the turn was the 5h and the river the 7d. If I had raised my queens preflop and he'd just smoothcalled, then his play would certainly be more understandable (even though I am very unlikely to call with a hand he has in trouble).

Re: Weird AA line...
 

Wraps is part of villians range, that said I rarely raise or felt AAxx here. But thats me.

- B