600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

Never played with the villain, but his mined stats look very loose passive. I just sat.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $234
UTG+1: $441
Hero: $615
Button: $710.85
SB: $682.55
BB: $549

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $42</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $120</font>, Button calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($375, 2 players)


I am thinking the turn bet is kinda bad, but do you fire this river here?

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

Well, if you have mined stats on him, you might as well post those, they can help...

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

We know these guys probably aren't going to be folding a K or A right? So that's a strike against river betting but that turn bet is probably no good against this guy, i like check-fold

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

If he had an A high flushdraw, he just made toppair. That's a reason not to bet. JT also made a straight. Would he have raised Kx by now? If not, the river is an easy check since he could have some Kx hand and is too afraid/passive to bet it. In that case he would call with any K, JT and maybe 50% of his Ax hands.

If you could exclude a K from his range it becomes a little bit tougher, I still wouldn't bluff this probably.

The best line is to check turn imo, he is passive so he will check any draw, any Q or whatever and give yourself a shot a t a free showdown.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

I would never fire a river here!

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

meh, you could get him off a Q if you fire again but im not sure how often he has that. Fire occasionally but check behind should be standard, especially since it wasnt something like a J or a T that fell, or a diamond.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.

ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations):

AQs - 2
AJd-A2d - 10
KQs/KQo - 16
JTs/JTo - 16
88 - 3

(50 total combos)

hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop):

T9d - 1
QJs-Q8s - 16
QJo-Q9o - 36
JJ-99 - 18

(71 total combos)

you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

and the turn bet is very bad.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

jfish, totally disagree, hes gonna have alot more missed diamonds than just T9d and for that (the fact that we actually have sd value) makes me want to check here as a default.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

hmm, maybe im wrong given we bet pot on the turn and other than T9s, J9d the other diamond draws are all to lower flushes (except A hi but they aint folding now) that he would fold more often on the turn

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

you can add more diamonds, i dont think it changes the end decision. could be wrong.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you can add more diamonds, i dont think it changes the end decision. could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

we win if he has diamonds no matter what we do (except diamonds with the 8d). i don't like the push at all though. i'm not convinced he folds a Q all the time and we know that he's passive, so he can have a K.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

I'd give up on the river.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

So what I am getting from this thread is that the turn bet was aweful (which I figured) and the river bet was so/so-bad.?

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

I heard somewhere that if the opponent has a better hand than us and does not want to fold we should not bet?

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I heard somewhere that if the opponent has a better hand than us and does not want to fold we should not bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why don't you work on some quality posts before you attempt sarcasm or whatever this is here. It's not funny or insightful. I'm not sure what you are going for, but it isn't working.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

The main problem I see with the turn bet is that we expect TAGs and normal players to potentially fold a queen or a lower pair. However, this player could call you down real light... on the other hand if he did float lightly on the flop he could be willing to give it up on the turn.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I heard somewhere that if the opponent has a better hand than us and does not want to fold we should not bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why don't you work on some quality posts before you attempt sarcasm or whatever this is here. It's not funny or insightful. I'm not sure what you are going for, but it isn't working.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive actually agreed with all his recent posts. hes a better poster than 99% of the forum.