Re: Rank these running backs
 

I didn't think it was that disputed by anyone that certain things like holding the ball in your away from your body, or not switching arms properly when running down field, or not covering with both hands through the hole will increase the likelihood of a fumble. I also didn't think it would be disputed that certain running backs in the league do these things better than others, and that for a portion of his career Tiki Barber did not have good fundamentals in this regard, and that this was a cause for his high fumble rate.

Do you disagree with any of that?

Re: Rank these running backs
 

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Concerning fumbling, I just threw this together.

Touches/fumble

Brian Westbrook - 149.125
Priest Holmes - 131.188
Clinton Portis - 91.947
Terrell Davis - 91.2
Edgerrin James - 77.775
Shaun Alexander - 77.667
Tiki Barber - 52.887

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I'd rather see fumbles lost/touch. A bunch of fumbles come as ball carriers are running along the sidelines and stiffarming, these almost always go out of bounds. A bunch more are own recoveries.

Re: Rank these running backs
 

Fumble recoveries are subject to pretty high variance, I can't see how that would be better than fumbles in general

Re: Rank these running backs
 

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Considering how few fumbles there are and how a few "fluke" fumbles or a few bad refs calls on the fumbles(either incorrectly ruling it a fumble or incorrectly ruling a player down)can really alter that statistic, how much variance and random luck do you think there is in that statistics?

For example, if we were to go back in time and re-do everything, how big of a favorite would you make BW over TB in terms of winning this stat?


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99.9999%, TB fumbled 3x as much as BW has. As high variance as that stat can be, I'm pretty sure this differential has something to it.

Re: Rank these running backs
 

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For example, if we were to go back in time and re-do everything, how big of a favorite would you make BW over TB in terms of winning this stat?

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About 5:1 against Barber winning, and it's only that low because there would be a fair chance that one of them gets seriously hurt before his true fumble rate has a chance to appear.

For guys closer to the middle of the pack your point is well taken, but at the extremes, over half a dozen seasons and thousands of touches, that's a meaningful number.

Re: Rank these running backs
 

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For example, if we were to go back in time and re-do everything, how big of a favorite would you make BW over TB in terms of winning this stat?

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About 5:1 against Barber winning, and it's only that low because there would be a fair chance that one of them gets seriously hurt before his true fumble rate has a chance to appear.

For guys closer to the middle of the pack your point is well taken, but at the extremes, over half a dozen seasons and thousands of touches, that's a meaningful number.

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Westbrook has about 1200 career touches.

Re: Rank these running backs
 

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I'd rather see fumbles lost/touch. A bunch of fumbles come as ball carriers are running along the sidelines and stiffarming, these almost always go out of bounds. A bunch more are own recoveries.

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Fumble recoveries are almost completely random. The running OOB fumbles that you mention are not a large enough sample to really alter that.