Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I think the only hand he can hold that makes sense is a big pocket pair. He probably had us on a steal pre-flop and didn't want to scare us off, so he didn't re-raise. Then he tried to take the pot after the flop and got surprised when we called his raise. Now he's gone into way-ahead-way-behind mode and is trying to check/call the hand to a showdown.

It didn't look like our large bet when the Q hit scared him, so I have him on kings or aces.

But I'm not sure, so I'd play it safe and check. Greed has bit me on the ass way too many times.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
For all you non-folders out there; you're trying to pick up 500-700 chips at the risk of getting busted when you could get 1800 for free and save yourself from the risk of losing your whole stack if he has his flush. Sure those 500-700 chips are important, but the 1800 are more important. If he made his flush, you've still got chips to work with. It seems like a no-brainer to check-behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

We know he isnt folding a hand that beats you, so you dont really risk winning the pot by betting. It comes down to this

Which do you think their are more of:

Hands that you beat that will call
or
Hands that beat you, that will play like this

Personally, I think it is VERY close. I lean towards check behind, but I dont play many high buy in events, so I may be biased towards the typcial low buy in tendency of everyone slow playing everything to death.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Check behind. There is no value in betting. I would think villain has A9. Though it is possible he has, 1010, JJ, 109, 98, or even maybe J10. If he made a straight or a flush on the river he's calling our river bet and I have no idea why he wouldn't bet the river since obviously we have something to keep fireing at the pot.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check behind. There is no value in betting. I would think villain has A9. Though it is possible he has, 1010, JJ, 109, 98, or even maybe J10. If he made a straight or a flush on the river he's calling our river bet and I have no idea why he wouldn't bet the river since obviously we have something to keep fireing at the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

why in the world would you check behind if those are the type of hands you put him on?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I'd be checking behind on principal, even if I might be ahead and able to wring a bit more... for two reasons:

1 -- playing smaller pots with weaker cards
2 -- avoiding a bet that will only be called if I'm beaten

You've already seen him min-raise when he check-raised the flop and then check-called an 80% of pot bet on 4th. That FLAT CALL of 520 is very funny.. he's badly misplayed SOMETHING... what kind of cards does a donkey tend to misplay during the early game in such an odd fashion..? more likely something big than something small.. (unless it's AK, which he's not going to call with anyways)

I think our villain falls into one of these three groups:

1 - he made his draw and is laying a very poor trap
2 - he had us beat from the get-go with trip 9s and has misplayed them. Now fears the str and fl draws (but I believe he'd still consider a call of an all-in with his stronger hand)
3 - he has given up on the hand and will fold to a river bet

TPTK or big ppair is possible, and these are the only hands that will potentially call you and pay off a value bet on the river... But WHAT was that check/call of 520 (almost a fourth of his stack) on the turn? do you think that shows weakness? Or maybe a Q9?

all together I don't see a bet here as +ev.

And as Mr. Sklansky says in TOP.. If you shouldn't bet, and you shouldn't fold... well then you just check in the vacuum.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I check here. I strongly believe the villian has a set. Some of the posters are saying they don't think he has a set because he "played it poorly." While in the general idea it may be an awkward way of playing it, hasn't the villian done something right (if he does, in fact, have a set)? If he feels he has the best hand, he has disguised it well and put hero in full confusion mode. If he's afraid of a flush, hasn't he minimized his losses by controlling the pot through c/r and the river check?

If I'm hero, I check here. There are too many possibilities that I'm beaten here. Like another poster said, if I cannot be confident in the range I put him on, I check. You lose nothing by checking. If this were a board where you were certain you had the best of it, obviously a value bet is in order. But if you don't have some certainty you're the best here, or that he folds to a bet, you have to check.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I check here. I strongly believe the villian has a set. Some of the posters are saying they don't think he has a set because he "played it poorly." While in the general idea it may be an awkward way of playing it, hasn't the villian done something right (if he does, in fact, have a set)? If he feels he has the best hand, he has disguised it well and put hero in full confusion mode. If he's afraid of a flush, hasn't he minimized his losses by controlling the pot through c/r and the river check?

[/ QUOTE ]

He played it poorly because 90% of people (myself included) would've doubled him up if he'd just played it normally. His confusing us just cost him a ton of chips. If he's afraid of a flush, well that's just incredibly weak-tight.

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm hero, I check here. There are too many possibilities that I'm beaten here. Like another poster said, if I cannot be confident in the range I put him on, I check. You lose nothing by checking. If this were a board where you were certain you had the best of it, obviously a value bet is in order. But if you don't have some certainty you're the best here, or that he folds to a bet, you have to check.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just not true, if betting has a positive EV then that's what you lose by checking.

Steve

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check here. I strongly believe the villian has a set. Some of the posters are saying they don't think he has a set because he "played it poorly." While in the general idea it may be an awkward way of playing it, hasn't the villian done something right (if he does, in fact, have a set)? If he feels he has the best hand, he has disguised it well and put hero in full confusion mode. If he's afraid of a flush, hasn't he minimized his losses by controlling the pot through c/r and the river check?

[/ QUOTE ]

He played it poorly because 90% of people (myself included) would've doubled him up if he'd just played it normally. His confusing us just cost him a ton of chips. If he's afraid of a flush, well that's just incredibly weak-tight.

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm hero, I check here. There are too many possibilities that I'm beaten here. Like another poster said, if I cannot be confident in the range I put him on, I check. You lose nothing by checking. If this were a board where you were certain you had the best of it, obviously a value bet is in order. But if you don't have some certainty you're the best here, or that he folds to a bet, you have to check.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just not true, if betting has a positive EV then that's what you lose by checking.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing. I don't believe betting here is +EV, considering what we know (or, in truth, what we don't know).

However, it's very easy for me to sit here and say I would check, when I know I'd possibly bet here as a blocking bet. Who knows? In the heat of battle, I could see myself betting. But with the luxury of being able to sit here for hours (if I wanted to) to think about it, I say check. I guess I'm a little weak-tight in this situation, but good players like villian could easily play this awkwardly on purpose.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, it's very easy for me to sit here and say I would check, when I know I'd possibly bet here as a blocking bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, just what would you be blocking? You could make a blocking bet (to prevent your opponent from making a bet you aren't comfortable calling) if you were out of position. But in this spot, there's nothing to block, your opponent has already checked to you.

The discussion now is whether or not we have the best hand. If we believe we do, we make a value bet that we think will be called. But Villian has played this hand so oddly that I'm not certain I have the best hand, and that's why I check (since I don't want to fold, and I can't really bet enough where I feel that I can give up the hand if he comes over the top)

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Come on! It really isn't that odd. Villian has us on air, 9x, or a bigger pair, right? True, I am surprised by the turn check, but given the range he puts us on, it isn't terrible. It may give us a free draw at 5 or 6 outs, but it also keeps the pot small if we have exactly what he thinks we have - a pair that may or may not be better than his pair.