Two Plus Two Newer Archives - NBN2 Fantasy Basketball Thread

For those interested, here's Clarky's season preview

You want draft evaluation, team evaluation, season
prognostications and playoff forecasts? You've got
it. For your enjoyment and discussion below is the
2007-2008 NBN2 Preseason Forecast

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Vatican City State Pretty Bunny Princesses (Assani
Fisher)

Biggest Early Reach: Ray Allen – Hard not to envision
a decline for this aging forward even if he hadn’t
gone to a slower paced conference on a team with more
weapons. By Week 4 an 8.0 C1 contract on an efficient
16ppg guy will make people wonder why Assani didn’t
choose any number of better options at this time. One
of the worst picks in the draft IMO.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Darko Milicic – Getting a
very young center who still can legitimately improve
for a 4.5 C2 deal is a bargain. Low risk, potentially
high return, at a position that many owners neglected
in this draft.

Guards – B+ Led by Barbosa, it’s efficient bunch with
a good mix of youth and production. Great % guys,
perfect for a team with good big men. Unfortunately,
this isn’t a team built around big men.

Forwards – C- Marion’s godlike status will carry the
load, but the rest of the crew (Kapono, Scola,
Battier, misc scrubs) is pathetic as a whole.

Centers – C+ Blount and Darko were steals and Kwame is
very serviceable if he gets PT.

Overall – C The whole is not as good as the sum of
its parts. Marion’s talents in steals and blocks are
somewhat wasted on a team destined to be mediocre in
those areas. Efficiency is outstanding for this team,
but they will really struggle to compete in the bulk
categories. Being in the very tough Atlantic Division
doesn’t help.

Prediction: 37-45, 4th Atlantic

St. Petersburg Crush (Thayer)

Biggest Early Reach: Ron Artest – One never knows how
many games he’ll show up for and it’s not because he’s
injury prone. Add in the fact that he’s a terrible
fit on a team built around efficiency and I’m not sure
what the thinking was here. A slew of more sensible
options went in the subsequent 10-12 picks.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Drew Gooden – Still young
at 26, he’s super consistent when it’s all said and
done. Last year’s 2% was an aberration and he’s a
solid, efficient steal with a 4.1 C2 contract

Guards – A- Billups and Mo Williams head a very
productive bunch. Belinelli should help out and
MoPete and White Chocolate aren’t sexy, but they are
efficient.

Forwards – B- Peja and Artest don’t seem to work well
together, but along with Rashard Lewis and Gooden,
this bunch is more than serviceable.

Centers – A- I would’ve taken Amare #1 overall. Nazr,
Mikki, and Pryz give more than enough supporting depth
since one is bound to be serviceable (while the others
likely crap out).

Overall – A- More bulk than division rival Vatican
City. This is a team with both bulk production and
high efficiency.. Injury/Suspension concerns with
Artest and Peja provide cause for concern.

Prediction: 47-35, 1st Atlantic

Boston CopyCelts (Josh – Epippen)

Biggest Early Reach: Danny Granger – 5.9 C2 is absurd
for a guy who has progressively gotten worse in his
career. Passing on quality pieces like Mo Williams,
Andrew Bynum, Nene (the next 3 taken) for a 4-year
senior who hasn’t shown improvement is baffling.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Udonis Haslem – That’s more
like it. At 2.9 C2 he’s a better value than Granger.
With oodles of playing time all but assured in injury
riddled Miami, he’s solid value for the next few
years.

Guards – A An interesting mix of bulk guys
(Williams, Andre Miller, Jameer) and efficient guys
(Redd, JR Smith). Interesting and good.

Forwards – B- Dirk gives both bulk and efficiency and
works well with these guards (provided Deron doesn’t
take too many 3’s). The rest of the forward cast,
however, is serviceable but not much more with Haslem
heading up a group with Granger, Korver and Craig
Smith.

Centers – F Mihm, Harrison and Diop are closer to an
all-star waiver list than an N2 starting center
rotation.

Overall – B The guards are good, and if some of the
forwards take a step forward, they should make the
playoffs.

Prediction: 43-39, 2nd Atlantic

Bethlehem Bombers (Clark)

Biggest Early Reach: Andrea Bargnani – Big gamble for
little proven production. Age and long term center
potential, but that’s the kind of thing that fools NBA
GMs all the time. At a fully valued 6.9 C2, he better
start producing fast to give the Bombers a reasonable
return on investment.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Troy Murphy – A guy with
double-double potential at center on a 2.2 C2 contract
is absurd.

Guards – D+ Not an efficient bunch, but Conley and
Hughes should provide a little bulk. The rest of
these scrubs like Duhon and BJax produce right at
their league minimum salary.

Forwards – A- Butler, Maggette, Josh Smith, Bargnani,
Frye and Dorell Wright provide a high end frontcourt
that gives across the board production, albeit without
ideal %’s.

Centers – A+ Yao, Bogut, Murphy and young Zaza (is he
really only 24?) are deep and talented.

Overall: B- A quality bulk team with an anemic guard
rotation, the question is can they win the FT%
category enough times to make the playoffs.

Prediction 42-40, 3rd Atlantic

Northeast Division

Allston Ruskies (Sergei – sergsz)

Biggest Early Reach: Allen Iverson – A justifiable
reach, but at his age and with an even bigger ballhog
on the team than he (fellow Ruskie Carmelo Anthony),
one has to wonder if it makes sense to pair young
studs Anthony and LeBron with a guy like Iverson in
the twilight of his career.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Devin Harris – Super
efficient, his MPG only figure to grow as Jason Terry
gets older. Has yet untapped scoring potential, and
with his efficient %’s, more shots is more rubles for
the Ruskies.

Guards – B Iverson, Jackson, Monta and Devin are a
quality starting four, though the depth gets a little
scary after that. The problem is that they all do
different types of things, and the whole isn’t as
great as the parts.

Forwards – B+ Carmelo and Lebron anchor a frontcourt
with Ariza, Amier, McDyess, CV31 and Travis Outlaw.

Centers – C Dalembert is the name, with the always
entertaining Adonal Foyle and the team water boy
Oleksiy Pecherov watching from the bench.

Overall – C A team with tons of quality assets, and
awful chemistry. Will need to be active to really
compete week-in, week-out as it’s mediocre at lots of
things, great at few, and awful at a couple. Could be
good down the road with some savvy trading.

Prediction: 36-46, 4th Northeast

Northampton Benchwarmers (Dave GKA)

Biggest Early Reach – Rondo, LDO. Do I really need to
say anything more? In two years he’ll be at 9.8 C4.
Hard to imagine him growing into that kind of value.
Yeah, he’s got crazy upside, but crazy upside is more
than fully valued at his 6.8 C2 deal.

Biggest Late Round Steal: For a team that is
constructed for bulk, Sheed at a mere 4.9 is serious
value. Yeah, he won’t be around in 3-4 years, but
he’s a steal that late in the draft. Good pick for a
guy who projects to outperform that salary easily this
year.

Guards – A+ Gilbert, Kidd, TMac, Rondo. Studs with a
system.

Forwards – C- Value pick Sheed may be the best of the
bunch, with Barnes, Garbajosa, Oberto and budding
young Bull Tyrus Thomas helping to chip in.

Centers – C Ben Wallace is a good fit here. Magloire
is serviceable. No backup plan.

Overall – B Can the injury prone guard squad take home
the bacon? Team is constructed reasonably well and
built to win now. Should have a shot at and in the
playoffs.

Prediction: 44-38, 1st Northeast

Bay State Pilgrims (Colin)

Biggest Early Reach – Raja Bell is a handy player to
be sure, but he’s getting older, there’s increased
competition for playing time, and better options like
Ricky Davis were chosen right after him. 5.7 C2 is a
hefty price.

Biggest Late Round Steal – If he’s really 100%,
Richard Jefferson has a chance to be a long term blue
chip asset at a 4.9 C2 deal. By comparison, I’d
rather have him than Raja, or even (gasp) Rondo.

Guards – B- An uninspired bunch is anchored by Paul
Pierce who certainly has some question marks
surrounding him this season. Tony Parker is
absolutely rock solid if he continues to improve his
FT%. Raja Bell is next best and the supporting crew
is pretty unremarkable though not awful.

Forwards – C Jamison, Jefferson, Noah, Posey, Gomes,
Luke Walton. This is the definition of an average
frontcourt.

Centers – B Gasol over Yao? Wade? Bosh? I like the
feisty Spaniard, but that wasn’t optimal. Dampier is
a decent backup plan. Better keep them healthy.

Overall – C+ Not sure there’s enough raw production
here. Not awful, but not exciting. The definition of
a mediocre team. Fortunately, they only truly suck in
steals and blocks, while being mediocre enough across
the board to maybe sneak into the playoffs.

Prediction: 41-41, 2nd Northeast

Ottawa Wild Aces (Barbier)

Biggest Early Reach – David West is the oldest young
guy in the league and Barbier’s mistake is evidenced
by his willingness to dangle him to every team. Nice,
efficient production but not much upside and some
downside concern if Peja is healthy, Chandler
continues to refine his game, and Paul continues to
dominate the ball. 7.1 is a bit high here.

Biggest Late Round Steal – He had several, but the
biggest was possibly Kendrick Perkins. Big Fatty is
still a kid and obviously will get oodles of PT if His
Fatness can handle it. Nothing but upside at 3.4 C2.

Guards – C+ Bibby, Crawford, Jack, Roy are very solid
though not really dynamic. Decent longshot upside in
Gerald Green, though I’m not a believer. Bonzi always
produces if he gets minutes, but that’s a big if.

Forwards – A- Bosh at 15 is totally absurd. Multiple
owners dropped the ball on that one.Big Al, David
West, and a variety of upside guys like Hayes, Evans,
Blatche really provide a solid group.

Centers – B Kaman and Perkins are good. Oden is on
the way next year. I’m guessing that Brezec can
handle spot backup duty if needed.

Overall – C+ Poorly constructed but asset rich, the
trade happy Aces are likely to dump the parts that
don’t fit, find ones that do. If they don’t, they
won’t be sniffing the playoffs.

Prediction: 39-43, 3rd Northeast

Western Conference

Central Division

Philadelphia Mercury (Matt freehat)

Before I comment. Isn’t this a WNBA team name? WTF.

Biggest Early Reach: Kevin Martin. Yes, I know him.
He’s a stud. But a skinny one who either wore down or
cooled off as the season went on last year, take your
pick. Non-bulk high % guys are nice to have and trade
for, tougher to spend a 2nd round pick on with guys
who give both bulk AND %’s still on the board.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Paul Milsap. Not sure his
ceiling is super high since he seems likely to be
career buried behind the young Jazz starting
frontcourt, but he’s efficient and they love him.
Good value for a mere 2.2 C2 contract. I would’ve
taken him 4 spots later and nearly took him the round
before.

Guards – A- Nash is a god. Plain and simple. He
alone makes your guards a B. Add in the
aforementioned Martin, efficient counterparts
Calderone and Stuckey are nice. Not very efficient
Lou Williams seems like a nice piece as well.

Forwards – C- David Lee, Chris Wilcox, Milsap and
Maxiel don’t inspire fear. The bench might inspire
fear in the Mercury faithful.

Centers – B+ Chandler, Bynum with Foster on the
bench. Real nice starting duo for years to come.

Overall – C+ No one but Nash and Martin shoots 3’s,
so they’ll win that every week. The other %’s are
good, and nash can win assists all by himself on
4-game weeks. Not sure where the other category is
coming from. Boards sometimes. Not sold that this
team really has the depth necessary. Dominant in a
few categories (runaway leader in 2%) and awful in
others, sounds like .500 to me.

Prediction: 41-41, 2nd Central

Jersey Crack Horde (Alex, Irish Hand)

Biggest Early Reach – Dwight Howard. Young, beastly
and with seemingly huge unrealized upside. But he’s a
two-category killer that corrupts how one builds a
team. A good pickup late in the first, not sure he’s
good value with Yao, Wade and Bosh still on the board.

Biggest Late Round Steal: Stephon Marbury is an
absurd value at 2.2 C2. Dude’s not a bad fantasy
player at all, still got some years left, and
amazingly, went AFTER guys named Boykins, White
Chocolate, Alston. I mean, wtf.

Guards – B Joe Johnson is great value in the 3rd
round, and similar value (not the same as top notch
production) is to be found in Azubuike, Felton, Foye
and Francis.

Forwards – B Jeff Green falling to 9 in the rookie
draft was a boon for the Horde. He’ll play with AK47,
Wally Z, Gerald Wallace, Kenyon Martin in the
all-injury frontcourt. But, if they stay healthy,
they are the perfect compliment to men in the middle.

Centers – A Howard and Nene are beastly. Period.

Overall – B+ Very well constructed this team will
bulk the heck out of people while not giving away %
categories. Legit title contender…….if they can stay
healthy.

Prediction: 44-38, 1st Central

Kutztown Dodgers (Marc, Needle77)

Biggest Early Reach – Emeka Okafor over Bosh is simply
indefensible. I don’t want to pile on because it’s
already been discussed on the forum.

Biggest Late Round Steal – Hedo Turkoglu is a super
nice value pick at a paltry 1.7 C2. With other
scoring options he should only do better and he’s
always been a handy guy.

Guards – C- Rip is solid, as is Jason Terry. But
neither is spectacular and the rest of the crew
(Alston, Speedy, Anthony Parker) is basically waiver
fodder.

Forwards – C- Boozer is a max guy if you believe last
years production. Hoford could be a stud in the
making. Good core to build around. Hedo is the next
best on the team and while I like him as a pick, Hedo
simply can’t be your 3rd best forward.

Centers – B+ Okafor and Ilgauskis are super solid,
though they don’t necessarily work well together with
the FT thing and all. Rasho a handy bench guy.

Overall – C Simply not enough talent, or well enough
constructed to compete this year. Okafor cranks out a
lot of production, but it’s different production than
the rest of the team. I like Boozer, I like Okafor, I
don’t like Boozer and Okafor, if that makes sense.

Prediction: 37-45, t-3rd Central

NY Blue Barracudas (Alan primetime)

Biggest Early Reach – If you’re gonna have one, have
it be the last pick in the first 5 rounds (the
standard for “early round reach”). Brad Miller is
declining, facing foot issues, and now has competition
for minutes from the rookie and Mikki Moore. Chris
Kaman went two picks later. No brainer to take the
younger guy who doesn’t have Brand hogging boards for
a season.

Biggest Late Round Steal – Boris Diaw. Yeah, he’s
2005’s news, but he’s still efficient, still young,
and eventually Marion’s gone or someone gets hurt.
Until then he’ll quietly pump out 10/4/4 for a mere
3.4 C2 deal and have breakout potential at the sight
of a player breaking down in Phoenix.

Guards – A- Chris Paul, Iggy, Baron are an elite
3-some. Good filler depth behind them with Cassel,
Reddick, Butler.

Forwards – D Kevin Durant is a huge help from the
rookie draft. But even so, this is a thin, thin
group. Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Diaw round out the
starters. Long on youth, short on production.

Centers – B- Aldridge and Brad Miller are very solid
and efficient starters.

Overall – C+ Well constructed team may possibly
greater than the sum of the parts but I wouldn’t count
on it. Young team is obviously a year or two away.

Prediction: 37-45, t-3rd Central

Pacific Division

Washington Black Mass Reverends (Hayden Aces McGee)

Biggest Early Reach – Kirk Hinrich is a fine player,
but with Joe Johnson and others still on the board
he’s not necessarily fine value. Many better options
were available and Kirk really should’ve have gone
until later in the 3rd.

Biggest Late Round Steal – Call me crazy but I’m long
on Walter Herrmann. Ammo’s out, the team is injury
prone, and he should find minutes, which is all he
needs to be a very productive fantasy guy given his
meager 2.2 C2 contract.

Guards - A- Kobe isn’t only the best player in the
NBA, he’s a heck of a fantasy player too. Along with
Hinrich, Tinsley, Brevin Knight and Bell, the Revs
have a solid starting backcourt.

Forwards – A- Elton Brand a year from now will be one
of the better values in the league. However, losing
his production now definitely hurts. Hoping to pick
up the slack are Odom, Jermaine O’Neal, Nocioni,
Herrman and some other decent role players.

Centers – C+ Curry was a good value pick, and
Mourning is reliable for major help in blocks. Elson
and Swift provide serviceable backup depth at minimal
cost.

Overall – B This team is loaded once Brand gets
back.. Value up and down the roster. Unfortunately,
Brand isn’t back for a while and they are in a very
tough division.

Prediction: 41-41, 3rd Pacific

St. Paul Sqaws (Robbie rwesty)

Biggest Early Reach – Manu Ginobili is a consistent
NBN contributor. He’s also getting older and isn’t
that steady or good to be drafted ahead of guys like
Carmelo Anthony, Barbosa, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd,
etc. This was a flat-out reach by at least a full
round.

Biggest Late Round Steal – IF he plays in the NBA this
year, Anderson Varejao is a really great pickup at a
paltry 1.7 C2. Plays behind two guys who only get
30mpg each ensuring he also gets plenty of PT. Got to
hope he signs with the Cavs and gets back on the
court.

Guards C- – Ginobili heads up an uninspired bunch
including Jason Richardson, Mobley, Harpring, rookie
Acie Law and Earl “how did I go ahead of Marburry”
Boykins.

Forwards – B- NBN god Kevin Garnett is the anchor of
this team with solid help from Josh Howard and Zach
Randolph. Will the supporting cast of Najera and
Varejao fill the gap?

Centers – B- – While Okur is a great start, he needs
someone else to help spell him. No other center on
the roster.

Overall C – This is a thin bunch. Reasonably
efficient though which should help mask a lack of
either quality guard help or enough critical
frontcourt mass. We’ve seen before in other leagues,
Kevin Garnett (3-time MVP) can simply carry a team on
his back to the playoffs.

Prediction: 43-39 2nd, Pacific

Anchorage Igloos (sethypooh)

Biggest Early Reach – Camby may have been “best
available player by a longshot”, but there was a
younger, soon to be better version of him taken one
spot later. Simply too injury prone and too old to be
taken at #21 overall, despite undeniable top 10 per
game production.

Biggest Late Round Steal – Brendan Haywood at 1.7 is a
great bargain that should be retainable for several
years. Etan Thomas going down only helps his value –
if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Guards – A+ Injury questions allowed Wade to freefall
all the way to #12, something unfathomable this time
last year. Couple him with Vince Carter, Ricky Davis
and Delonte West and you have an efficient bulky core
that is arguably the leagues best starting guard
rotation.

Forwards C+ Mike Miller works great with these
guards, and he’ll need to. Collison and Al Harrington
are nice starters and the last spot will be filled by
one of Corey Brewer or Marvin Williams. Seth is
hoping Sean May can return next year for a cheap
“offseason addition” heading into 2008-9.

Centers B+ Camby’s a stud, and Haywood a nice piece.
Dikembe is a spot starter with upside if Yao gets
hurt, and Petro could conceivably be in the regular
Sonics rotation. Good group.

Overall A- This is a good team and definitely the
best in the West if Wade comes back soon and healthy.
But that’s a huge if. But if he does, they may be the
best in the league.

Prediction: 47-35, 1st Pacific

Milwaukee Beers (Ebenhoe)

Biggest Early Reach – The much discussed Duncan over
Bosh pick. I think Bosh is not only better long term,
but better now as well. I view this as a pretty big
mistake.

Biggest Late Round Steal – TJ Ford at 5.1 C2 is good
value. Tons of bulk and on a team that is improving.
I like this pick at this spot.

Guards – C Lutha and Gordon shoot a good %, Ford
supplies some Bulk, and Sasha and Blake will help fill
in. Not a very deep group with playing time question
marks abounding.

Forwards – C+ Duncan anchors a group that includes
future superstar Luol Deng and some role players.
Warrick, Nachbar and Simmons round out a group with a
drastic dropoff after the first two.

Centers B+ The Diesel found a home, and is with
young breakout Andris Biedrins and Nenad Krisitc.
Solid group, especially if you believe Biedrins still
has upside and will be more than a white Dalembert.

Overall – C Ford’s a bad fit, but great value.
Shipping him out for another sharpshooting guard or
maybe some more bulk production at forward can help
this team capitalize on their frontcourt depth
surrounding Deng, Duncan and their centers. Good mix
of youth and production, but needs some work on the
production side. Great at 3% and blocks, awful at FT%
and 2%, will they be able to carry enough of the other
categories in arguably the league’s toughest division?

Prediction: 37-45, 4th Pacific

Overall the conferences are balanced, with the
Division powerhouses being heavily concentrated in the
Atlantic and Pacific. I give the Pacific the nod as
the toughest division in the league.

Playoff Predictions

East
#1 St. Petersburg over #4 Bethlehem 7-2
#3 Boston over #2 Northampton 5-4

#1 St. Petersburg over #3 Boston 5-4

West
#1 Anchorage over #4 Washington 6-3
#3 St. Paul over #2 Jersey 5-4

#3 St. Paul over #1 Anchorage 5-4

Finals
#1 St. Petersburg over #3 St. Paul 6-3

Good luck to everyone and have a great season.