Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

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side note, i consider most serious tight players/tags as non tilters, so sucking out on AA-JJ with J6s wouldn't really get them off their game. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule, but I think this is exagerated for online play. Much different live.

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not necessarily talking about tilt, but i think they would adjust their game incorrectly against us in future hands

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

Me too.

In the case where our opponent's reraising range is exploitably loose and he'll either fold preflop 'too often' or call and fold the flop 'too often' we should be 4betting with trash a percentage of the time that allows us to add to our winrate without triggering an undesirable adjustment that hurts our overall EV, i.e. we want to take advantage of him without alerting him to that fact. j6s is an excellent hand to add to your 4betting range in cases such as this; hands like AQo have too much inherent value with position and card strength to 'waste'.

In the case where our opponent's hand range isn't exploitably loose we can justify 4betting a certain % of the time if our opponent is prone to overadjusting to aggression. But that's not enough: we need to be reasonably certain he will overadjust in such a way that we can later compensate for the value we're losing on this specific hand by exploiting his overadjustment later on. Identifying these spots is tricky. It's really tough to get enough information to reasonably believe 'meta-game' considerations can justify an immediate -EV move.

This hand is almost certainly a flop check vs. every bad TAG ever.

Re: 5/10 online. J6s flops draw, get a freebie or get it in?
 

Lets assume they always have AA-QQ, AKs and are calling any bet. If you check the flop they'll autopush any turn.

Pot is $590, stacks are $650.

If you push the flop, EV is .363*$1240-.637*$650=$450.12-$414.05=+$36.07

If you check the flop and they autopush turn:

6 AA, 6 QQ, 3 AKs, 3 KK. 1/3 of the time you'll have 1 less out, so you have 8.67 outs.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Your EV is $0*37.33/46 when the turn is a non-d(even 4,8 give you insufficient 32.8% equity)

Your EV is 5.67/46($1240*.922-$650*.078) when the turn is a non-A,Q,7 diamond.

Your EV is 1/46($1240*.755-$650*.245) when the turn is 7d

Your EV is 1/46($1240*.903-$650*.097) when the turn is Qd

Your EV is 1/46($1240*.873-$650*.127) when the turn is Ad
</pre><hr />
Add 'em all up, your EV is $196.27 total.

So, based on the assumptions I gave, the EV of checking is +$160.20 better than pushing the flop. I might have made a small mistake with fractional outs somewhere, but it should still be close enough for govt work.

You have to win the pot 29% of the time with a push to make up the extra EV lost from pushing when he calls:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>X($36.07)+(1-X)($590)=$196.27

$36.07x+$590-$590X=$196.27

(1-x)=.289 is the breakeven point.
</pre><hr />
If he has AA-QQ, AKs, he has to fold QQ 86.7% of the time for pushing to be +EV.

If you see a mistake anywhere, let me know.

-Jeff

RESULTS
 

results are fun, so heres how this hand went down.

i thought QQ washis most likely hand (but iother premiums totally poss as well) and decided to go ahead and leverage some FE on this Khi board and get it AI.
he instacalled top set... i got lucky, turned the flush and dragged.
if it had been 952ddx, i def wouldve checked... kinda surprised so many ppl in this thread claim QQ is never folding here, i thought QQ prob folds alot but that doesnt make my play correct...

FWIW, nothing in the chat after the hand.

Re: RESULTS
 

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FWIW, nothing in the chat after the hand.

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Even from you? considering the amount of smack you talk in real life, I'm very surprised.

Re: RESULTS
 

i donjt do that online.