Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Here are my picks for tomorrow, I feel they are very strong.

St. Louis (-2.5)
Cleveland (-2.5)
Tampa Bay (-3)
Pittsburg (-9.5)

---------------

The matchups:

St. Louis vs SF
Cleveland vs Baltimore
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta
Pittsburg vs Jets

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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What are the arguments for betting Arizona +3?

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA.

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Football Outsiders calculated it based on home/road DVOA from 1996-2006. Arizona's HFA ranked third behind Kansas City and Minnesota.

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Cool. Got the complete list? I imagine Buffalo is up there too & Carolina is last.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I've got...

Cle -2.5, -108
Det ML, +130
KC/Ind U42,+105
Min/Oak U35.5,-102

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cool. Got the complete list? I imagine Buffalo is up there too & Carolina is last.

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No complete list but the article provides the top 10 and discusses the issue in greater detail here. Buffalo is at #8.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Starting to get the feeling that the whole forum is on the Falcons. I know I am [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Eagles lost to Gradkowski and Young last year, but held them to 210 pass yds combined, however got no INTs and no fumbles - that will change today vs a squad with no Brown and Chambers and John Beck starting on the road. [unless #5 throws 2 INTs for TDs or tears his ACL again.]

Way too many people on Miami in this spot. PHL -9.5 +104 at T/s for 1 unit.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Does WR S. Smith being out for CAR have a significant impact on how the line should be interpreted?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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Does WR S. Smith being out for CAR have a significant impact on how the line should be interpreted?

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I personally don't think so as he was questionable anyway and Carolina's problems haven't come from a lack of someone to catch the ball.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I am on Phi-9.5, Stl-3 and Hou/NO^48 - GL to all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Dolphins +10
push

Texans PK
win

Chiefs +14.5
win

Packers -9.5
win

Vikings -5.5
win

Miami/Philly O40
loss

NO/Houston O47.5
loss

Colts/Chiefs U44.5
win