Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I know you're not trying to make the point that the books are wrong. Your point is that SD should not be considered a wong teaser selection if the line is 7.5. But you have no data to back up your opinion. So you cannot make that point without saying the books are wrong.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I'm not trying to say the books are wrong and the widely available line is -7, not -7.5. My only point is that if the line is pushed to -7.5 through what appears to be a lot of BSPs betting up the line, then I would think this makes for a poor wong teaser. If the line does move to -7.5, I think the books are absolutely correct to move it considering that it appears a lot of action has come in on SD, however, by no means does that make -7.5 the "true" line.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to say the books are wrong and the widely available line is -7, not -7.5. My only point is that if the line is pushed to -7.5 through what appears to be a lot of BSPs betting up the line, then I would think this makes for a poor wong teaser. If the line does move to -7.5, I think the books are absolutely correct to move it considering that it appears a lot of action has come in on SD, however, by no means does that make -7.5 the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

-7.5 is a rogue line. You don't wong the -7 for obvious reasons. Considering it's a road favorite it's an even worse idea. It has nothing to do with who moved the line.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think he believes correctly that closing lines are sharper than opening lines.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

NFL lines are sharpest at kickoff, stop acting as though you know something the rest of us don't.

(sigh)

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Helping to make it that way... One arb at a time.