Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

Ain't luck. Skillz obv. Hadicappaments LOLZ

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

[ QUOTE ]
But the under was pretty obviously the right side of the total.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think so? Even with 720 yards of total offense? It seems like if any of those turnovers had been in a position to set up a score rather than to stop one, the total could have easily been in the 50s.

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

Look at the drive charts. 16 3-and-outs, and yet every drive inside the 40 not only turned into a TD, but a quick TD, except when FSU held for the FG when a first down would have sealed the under. The total could have been in the 50's of course, but I really thought it might end 14-7 too.

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

Aus,

Yardage is more commonly correlated with the score than the number of 3 and outs.

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

My point is that the offenses couldn't get a first down all night, but when they got inside the 40 they converted a TD every time. Usually you have some stalling in the red zone...would one stop for a FG be too much to ask? There was the back-to-back fumbles but that was really it. Wake had 4 drives of more than 30 yards:

83 yds TD
80 yds TD
82 yds TD
43 yds FG (they hold the one time it hurt us)

FSU's drives over 30 yards:
56 yds Punt (started on the 11)
67 yds TD
75 yds TD
74 yds TD

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

This is revolutionary. Long drives resulting in scores. Next you're going to tell me how many points there were off turnovers... Oh wait... There were none.

7 TOs and no points from them? GTFO

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

actually, the numbers back that this game should've gone under...around 40

ypp FTW ... the rest is pretty much garbage

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

[ QUOTE ]
actually, the numbers back that this game should've gone under...around 40

ypp FTW ... the rest is pretty much garbage

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take my chances with efficient market theory on NCAA closing totals.

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

Ridiculous, that last minute td cost me the under for the game and the under for the half. Still won the bet on wake though, but ouch, what awful defense there (although they were up by 2 scores).

Re: +++Thur NCAAF FSU -5.5 @ Wake Forest O/U43.5+++
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
actually, the numbers back that this game should've gone under...around 40

ypp FTW ... the rest is pretty much garbage

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take my chances with efficient market theory on NCAA closing totals.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just stating that the actualy on field, which was being debated, would more likely lead to an under
I said nothing about the original bet--just the one results-oriented outcome--for a game to be 5 points off what the underlying numbers show isn't a big surprise at all

that being said... market efficiency in closing lines for NCAAF totals is a joke... plot out the closing lines verse totals for the last decade... Lollerskates


I'd also be on the under everytime if it's 43.5 and these two teams are matching up