Two Plus Two Newer Archives - ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)

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- Micro Stakes Limit (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=37)

- - ... and here comes the next... (Playalong) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=399279)

hum...

Well, everyone seems to like a call...

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6BB, 4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10BB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls.

My thoughts: UTG plays virtually anything. I have no idea what he has - he might just have rivered a str8 with 56o fwiw -, but he might also just have some random something that he choses to bet with, given that everyone just checked.
BB seems to have gone pretty quiet after he bet the flop. I expect him to fold here pretty often. He's very likely on some draw, maybe JQ or something.
SB is my real concern. He coldcalled my flop raise and donked the turn. From some passive guy, I'd expect a real hand here. At the same time, it seems not to be good enough for a river bet. Thus I excluded any 2pr or better. Leaves some top- or middle pair type of hand. I could easily see him have JTo or QTo here, getting worried by all the calls on this - by now - relatively coordinated board, thus checking the river.

So, while all in all I still don't hate my hand, I don't think it's good enough for a showdown against three villains. Assuming that BB will fold very often against agression, it becomes the question of a) how often does SB have me beat with the line he took and b) how often do I get him to fold to a raise (keep in mind that his wsd% was reasonable).
And, well, though I nowhere nearly have enough hands to claim that I can back this up any further, I assumed that my best chances of winning this pot was by raising, essentially forcing him to fold whatever sub-monster hand he has...

Frito,

LOL@ thinking anyone is folding a hand better than yours to your raise. They will, however, eagerly call w/ worse hands. This is a textbook example of a terrible spot to raise the river.

I dont see you folding any better hands in a pot this size for 1 more bet.

You are also opening up the possibility of being reraised by a stronger hand.

I would just have called the river bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Frito,

LOL@ thinking anyone is folding a hand better than yours to your raise. They will, however, eagerly call w/ worse hands. This is a textbook example of a terrible spot to raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you being SB and somehow having gotten to this point with KTo, you'd call 2 cold? If that is true, then I'm terribly weak-tight still... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

That's the thing, Frito. Here are two things that are true:

1. There are players out there that will fold KTo to two bets on this river.
2. There are players out there that will check the river if they hold KTo here.

Unfortunately for you, there are very, very few players for whom both things are true. Players that are tight enough to fold KT are usually also aggressive enough to bet the river with it. Players who'll play KT this way are loose and passive, and they'll never fold to your raise when holding top pair. Either KT is not in his range, or he's not folding it.

If SB has the hand that Frito thinks, then his read will have to be revised. I think SB was folding this flop whether he raised or not. BB is more interesting. If he might fold J10 or Q10 the raise might be worthwhile if there was a good chance of being ahead of UTG. That's why I don't like to raise- I think that UTG has us beaten way too often for a raise to be +EV. No doubt I am about to be proved wrong though!

So what did UTG have? Are we allowed to see how the hand turned out?

lol

I think I am going to have to stop trying to put some of these guys on hands!