Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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no offence, and I'm not sure who suggested the check/call line on the river but its clearly really bad. If you are that far ahead of his range that you can check/call KQ then clearly a river bluff is profitable as well.

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How do you figure? That can only be true if he's calling with a lot of worse hands that he'd be betting with, which is highly unlikely to be the case. Betting in that case would fold crappy hands and still cost you money to some of the better hands, including ones that beat you that might check behind.

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guy is likely to bet AK cause he looks like a busted draw and figures you'll call. So he's betting a lot of hands that beat you. Altho its unlikely for him to bet AT (he's more likely to call with that hand however).

Anyways my thinking in that theoretical case, is that he would have to show up with busted draws really often for you to be good >30% of the time on the river. If he has busted draws that often you can bet/bluff profitably as well because he's got air too often.

Do it in stove. If you assume he folds AK on the river he's going to fold 40% of the time, and you only need him to fold more than 33% for it to be profitable. Obv. if you add busted draws in this bet is even better.

Hopefully my math is right. Correct me if I'm wrong (obv. rounding his river bet to a PSB).

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

lets break the hand down a bit-

pf, your range is fairly wide, given your read of him, his range is somewhat narrow. his pt #s would lean more towards pp, some scs, AJ and the like. i think that he rr-es JJ+/AQ+ most times. still, ranges are undefined.

flop- your range is still very wide, you are betting this flop with whatever you raised pf with (whether that is good or not, is debatable). after he calls the flop we can narrow his range a little lower. we can take most all pps out (sometimes JJ will be there). KTs/KTo probably folds pf given your read/pf numbers. clubs and such are very possible (maybe T9cc).

on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

turn- your range is a bit more narrow now too. this isn't the best board to double barrel on, the J changed little. i suppose that QJ/AJ/AA/QQ etc and all other premiums are still betting. i would put your range more weighted towards strong hands like AK/AQ/etc- still fairly strong. i suppose double barreling with KQ on this board is okay, its a semi bluff essentially and you SHOULD have some FE vs. some better hands. checking is obviously an option as well (probably folding to a bet).

his range on the turn? again, we can narrow it a bit further. i think that the draws he potentially could have would dump the turn due to reverse implied odds. its possible he's still continuing with T9cc or something like that but somewhat unlikely. Further, i think he's dumping his combos like QT/etc. also, his marginal hands like Ax are also dropping. Though he could think that he's now chopping (sortve dumb to keep calling to chop but meh).

his range on the turn i would most likely put him on stuff like Jx (whatever combos there could be, be it JT or something), two pair like AQ/AK, and some draws. in summary, i think that villan is pretty strong here.

the river, your line is super super strong. turning 2nd pair into a bluff against this opponent is something that is sortve meh imo. when nits clash, things get messy :P. i would put your range on a boat/straight/Jx/etc. i think you would typically check the river with AK and sometimes AQ.

villan should be folding most of his draws and most of his one pair hands like AK. i dont think that you're going to push him off a J.

in summary, this hand is sortve meh since both of your ranges are supposedly somewhat defined and i think that villan is pretty strong. i dont think he's folding and getting people to fold stronger hands is very good in general. meh.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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good discussion

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lol, the analysis of the hand makes me feel like a tard. I hate to say it but it feels more like one of the calls that just felt right.

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that's just as much of poker as the odds to hit a flush draw.

edit: though this probably should have been noted

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I think this is gross, if villain has an ace he is going to be discouting all your ace hands like AQ, AJ because two of the aces are out. Therefore you can only really have KT, QQ, 55 or some JT hand which decided to turn itself into a bluff on the flop and if I am shipitFMA I think its a pretty standard river call, especially 2p2 on 2p2. In reality this is KT, QQ or nothing, I think its a pretty bad bluff.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

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I totally disagree with this, I analyse this hand exactly backwards to how you have done, I think he floats all his strong/mid strength hands like AK, two pair, mid pairs etc and raises all the weaker hands like pair+fd, T9, JT etc as well as monsters like made straights and sets. I think raising AK on this board would be pretty bad

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I really don't see the villain folding more than half of the time at best. The 3rd barrel is -ev imho.

I think AK was a hand you should be surprised to see, and it should have played differently, and could fold river. But in this situation, even AK called. I don't think you are folding out ANY hand that beats you, in the end. And you need to get him to fold like 70% of the time.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

As gross as it sounds, I would usually just shove a hand that I know is best here (see: boat), so i think I would do the same with KQ if I'm going to turn my hand into a bluff here like you did.

It may not be right for YOU in this situation, but it's just my take on how i'd handle this river.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

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I totally disagree with this, I analyse this hand exactly backwards to how you have done, I think he floats all his strong/mid strength hands like AK, two pair, mid pairs etc and raises all the weaker hands like pair+fd, T9, JT etc as well as monsters like made straights and sets. I think raising AK on this board would be pretty bad

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it doesnt make any sense to float with strong hands on such a board. why would you flat with QA/JJ/KT/etc? doesnt make any sense.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

flat to get another bet out of AK if your AQ/AJ.