Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
i really have to post one further comment: the way one perceives a fact is more imperative than the fact itself. facere, factum est is a latin word meaning "to make"; i view games from an entirely different perspective, apparently, than do the other posters here; i "make" of occurences on a football field "facts" that express a team's weaknesses and strengths. i do not extract from the continuity or flow of a game a minutia of details and fixate upon them with reference to the over all scheme or development of a game.

for instance, "team speed" is not a concept that refers to the individual players 40 yd time: it is how strategically that "speed" is integrated into the game planning by the coaching staff. penn st. uses schemes that visually, obviously do not emphasize quickness and "speed" to the degree that florida or arkansas uses "speed". penn st. de-emphasizes speed in its pursuit of a blocking pattern, it's line play, in the offensive plans it uses for the games it plays. the 1999 rams are a case in point: no team they faced that or any other year were composed of players "slower" or less "speedy" than theirs; however, it is impossible to argue that the rams implemented philosophies which utilized their players' talents and native abilities in ways which gave those talents' an edge, a readily apparent advantage in quickness and "speed" over their opponents.

you may think your methods superior; you can draft up "facts" that disagree with my interpretation of a game, a coaching staff, or the difference between conferences. that is immaterial, really: the way i view games, and interpret them produces significant profits for me. i will say this: you should seriously believe your approach to game analysis superior to mine; and you should adhere to whatever you see and intuit in your analysis unswervingly.

i would however, suspect that using overly fine discrimination in your perception of the game--the bean counting method--is inadequate, if only because so many serious players use these methods. every body has the same box score, and every body seems, in my experience, to use it pretty much in the same way. a handicapping philosophy that cannot appreciate the difference between Buffalo's play against the Pats, which strictly numerical methods cannot, and Cleveland's play against the pats, will lay -7.5 in the wrong spot and the wrong time. Illinois vs. Wisconsin was a matchup of two good teams: visually, evaluating the flow of that game, i would definitely say wisconsin was better--that is, found a huge gap in their opponent's game and could exploit it, although other variables of a less tangible and more ephemeral nature gave the game to illinois. the turnover ratio was the essence of that game, and home field advantage. i will wager on wisconsin based upon my assessment. i am often wrong: i am never broke. neither team is "great", and other factors tend to have more influence in such matchups than in games between superior teams.

so, while you may fault my perception of tennessee, or the various conferences, it does not therefore mean you are correct. i daresay, i have made more money betting football than most of you will earn in a lifetime: i have done so because i do not allow my objectivity to suffer at the hands of my prejudices. i know, which the authors of the various criticisms above apparently do not, one thing above all--i know what I DO NOT KNOW; which means, i am perfectly willing to adapt a viewpoint to acknowlege probabilities.

to me, 5 to 2 on wisconsin, on the back of my perception of wisconsin and penn st., is outlandish.

as is the the ~7/2 on missouri OU ML. i do have a jar of beans here, if any of you wizards run out of countables, i'll happily send them along.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the more sneaky-cocky posts I've read on 2p2. Anytime someone drops the "I've made more money on sports betting than you will in a lifetime," is typically evidence that the guys blows. However, those guys usually say "OMFG I'mmatehwinz you loze rororlf"

What the thief doesn't do well is understand that while we disagree, that's okay. If you disagree with the thief, watch out.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

say pirate? bite my crank, eh?

or, what i meant to say, hey, wait a minute, that IS what i meant to say.

after all, i'd cut your throat in a church, which is what betting's all about, isn't it?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
say pirate? bite my crank, eh?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mature.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Craaaaaaap 0-1 before my games have been played.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Iggy,

Line has moved to 4.5 most places.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Craaaaaaap 0-1 before my games have been played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. More like your bad bet just got turned into a sweet middle. How often can you get the 4 and half of the 3 on a freeroll?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Craaaaaaap 0-1 before my games have been played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. More like your bad bet just got turned into a sweet middle. How often can you get the 4 and half of the 3 on a freeroll?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he lurks here and is now tailing MT2R's picks?

Looks like he's on Indiana too, judging from the line movement.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Here's Dr. Bob's card:

<u>4-star</u>
Rice at Houston -21
Missouri at Oklahoma -10.5

<u>3-Star</u>
Toledo at Buffalo -3.5
Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech -8.5

<u>2-Star</u>
Illinois -3.5 at Iowa
Air Force +3.5 at Colorado State

<u>Strong opinion</u>
San Jose State +18.5 at Hawaii
San Diego State at Utah -14
East Carolina at UTEP -3

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

layin' Texas Tech -8.5,, lets see if the line moves to -7.5 or something like that -6.5? all in.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

It's already moved to -10. People still seem to be following Dr. Bob somehow.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

can't find that game at covers... i really need consensus info on Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech.

-nevermind, wagerline already.

fk, should get the -8.5. "now its garbage -10"

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I think TT is widely overrated right now. I had them pegged as 5th in the South, and sticking to it. They haven't played anybody.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

it was at -8.5 and change to -10 in seconds!. wtf.

vegas: "bet the dog, i want ur money"

- JC

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

You just didn't have the line updated. I already told you that it moved everywhere an hour ago when Dr. Bob released his picks.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

i need some drugs from that Dr.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Several more to come, but I've added these today.

S Carolina -6.5 -110
Illinois -3.5 -116
Georgia -6.5 -110
Mississippi +7 -120
LSU -9 -116
Arizona +21.5 -110
Virginia -3 -101
UNLV +11 -110
Tennessee ML -255
Auburn/Arkansas Over 49 -110

(All my favorite ML bets are risking 1u and all my dogs are to win 1u, unless stated otherwise. Everything else is to win 1u.)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

BC -13.5 2 Units
Kent/Ohio St Under 49 1 Unit
Georgia/Vanderbilt Over 45 1 Unit
Wisconsin/Penn ST Over 44 1 Unit
Illinois/Iowa Over 44 1 Unit
LSU/Kentucky Under 54 1 unit
Marshall/Tulsa Under 70.5 1 Unit
Oklahoma/Missouri Under 61 1 Unit
USC/Arizona Under 57 1 Unit

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored]
I hate that [censored] guy

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still can't find a reason why people have FSU ~10 points better on a neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I'm so sick of every backdoor going against me...that FSU/Wake was under the whole way.....argh.....serenity now

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]

NAVY +4 (-106) @ Pitt 1.06u to win 1.0u 5Dimes

Florida St @ WAKE +6 (-105) 1.05u to win 1.0u SIA

YTD: 1-2 -1.12 units

[/ QUOTE ]


tcu @ STANFORD +6.5 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u Sportsbook

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

my friend wants to bet me $20 on the LSU KY game. He wants KY straight up and 3-1 odds. Is it worth betting?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's Dr. Bob's card:

4-star
Rice at Houston -21
Missouri at Oklahoma -10.5

3-Star
Toledo at Buffalo -3.5
Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech -8.5

2-Star
Illinois -3.5 at Iowa
Air Force +3.5 at Colorado State

Strong opinion
San Jose State +18.5 at Hawaii
San Diego State at Utah -14
East Carolina at UTEP -3

[/ QUOTE ]

Rats. This was moving up so I was waiting. Down to +17 now.

Hmmm, I have three of these, all at better lines than he's posting. Sell or not???

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
my friend wants to bet me $20 on the LSU KY game. He wants KY straight up and 3-1 odds. Is it worth betting?




[/ QUOTE ]

I see LSU ML -400 at BetJM. You get the best of it at 3-1.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

NAVY +4 (-106) @ Pitt 1.06u to win 1.0u 5Dimes

Florida St @ WAKE +6 (-105) 1.05u to win 1.0u SIA

YTD: 1-2 -1.12 units

[/ QUOTE ]





tcu @ STANFORD +6.5 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u Sportsbook

[/ QUOTE ]

ucf @ SOUTH FLORIDA -11.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u Sportsbook
smu @ SOUTHERN MISS -9 (-105) 0.63u to win 0.6u Sportsbook

Looking at a couple of other games, but I'm gonna have to open a Matchbook account tomorrow because the lines are so much better.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wisky +6.5
Illini -2.5 both 1u
BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u
Ark -2.5 for 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

undoing Wisky at PSU -6.5/-105, payin' the vig.

[/ QUOTE ]

Loss of 1.05u on FSU.

Leaning Purdue at +6 right now, going to see if it moves up a half-point tonite, but will be on them to win 1u regardless.

I know Mich has only played 2 spread offenses so sample size, but 0-2 and the Oregon blowout. Purdue is not as good, but still....

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

The spread offenses that beat Michigan were variations of the spread option. Whether it was read option or another type, they had mobile QBs. Purdue's offense is more like Texas Tech's, Painter isn't a threat to run unless flushed out of the pocket.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

yeah, that illinois team is a national champion, isn't it? lemme see, i can run, and i can, well, uh, can i run?

tlt

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

how does it feel to be a miserable human being?

you're not even arguing the same point, but just want to say something nasty to people who pwned you in arguments

congrats at sucking at life


*Note: You argued how Wisconsin handled the Illinois run well and how they just passed all over the Illini like Mizzou. None of the events in the Illinois-Iowa game today supported your assertions.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Bob's on Illinois this week according to Rx. Back to loving the Hawkeyes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored]
I hate that [censored] guy

[/ QUOTE ]

The Mush of Mushes this year comes thru again. I'm off to an awful start as well.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's Dr. Bob's card:

4-star
Rice at Houston -21
Missouri at Oklahoma -10.5

3-Star
Toledo at Buffalo -3.5
Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech -8.5

2-Star
Illinois -3.5 at Iowa
Air Force +3.5 at Colorado State

Strong opinion
San Jose State +18.5 at Hawaii
San Diego State at Utah -14
East Carolina at UTEP -3

[/ QUOTE ]

Rats. This was moving up so I was waiting. Down to +17 now.

Hmmm, I have three of these, all at better lines than he's posting. Sell or not???

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL_Rice winning outright vs 4starpickaments

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's Dr. Bob's card:

4-star
Rice at Houston -21
Missouri at Oklahoma -10.5

3-Star
Toledo at Buffalo -3.5
Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech -8.5

2-Star
Illinois -3.5 at Iowa
Air Force +3.5 at Colorado State

Strong opinion
San Jose State +18.5 at Hawaii
San Diego State at Utah -14
East Carolina at UTEP -3

[/ QUOTE ]

Rats. This was moving up so I was waiting. Down to +17 now.

Hmmm, I have three of these, all at better lines than he's posting. Sell or not???

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL_Rice winning outright vs 4starpickaments

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't he get pwned by Rice against S. Miss a couple weeks ago too?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's Dr. Bob's card:

4-star
Rice at Houston -21
Missouri at Oklahoma -10.5

3-Star
Toledo at Buffalo -3.5
Texas A&amp;M at Texas Tech -8.5

2-Star
Illinois -3.5 at Iowa
Air Force +3.5 at Colorado State

LOL_Rice winning outright vs 4starpickaments

[/ QUOTE ]

4-star picks by DrBob are the kiss of death 8-10 overall this week? 18-29 overall?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

that wisconsin team is a glory, too. hmm, will the QB ever play another good game against stiff opposition?

oh, here's the ball.
oh, there's the carpet.
oh, gee, i just put the ball on the carpet.

my goodness.

uh, did i throw ANOTHER interception? can i go sit on the bench yet?

:^)
tlt