Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
The data is not lying, it's just misleading you. I'm sure you've played high plenty of times. So have I! I am not appealing to J_V's authority - I have logged 5 figures worth of hands against this player also and can tell you that the amount that he loses to decent players far exceeds the amount he wins from players that are overly tight(in terms of expectation and not results). Several players who have actually logged hands with this player are saying that he makes extremely fundamental mistakes but you are just saying "it's impossible for this player to just be running well!!!" You must concede that it is at least possible that someone could run this well while not playing a +EV style. That much seems obvious. And if it is possible - why can't this player be the one who is? 5 players have come forth who are big winners in this game and others saying that they are sure he is a loser, but you stand firm in your position in spite of never having logged a hand with him.

He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware? That same day he called 2 bets cold in his BB in a 3 way pot with QTo against a 3 bettor who only raised 10 percent of his hands and the original raiser who raises 12. Could even Ray Zee churn a profit with QTo in this scenario, much less someone who pays off in the most obvious laydown situations? The simple answer is no, of course not. But you can continue to spout of inane claims like "I know several people who win at high limits who play 1/3 of their hands." Cool, so let's see your log of their last 100,000 hands with these stats and we can start thinking that this is more than an anamoly. The simple fact is you can't provide this. You have some anecdotal evidence that is likely from live play - which means you don't even know how many hands they play or what they actually win or lose. I just have no clue how you can argue so vehemently about something with which you have no experience.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this sums it up nicely

Re: DERB
 

Some stats, using J_V's original numbers:

[ QUOTE ]
Don't ever run bad. Party 30/60 player:

{{Hands 73,824 - VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0
Total winnings: $114,281

Routinely 3 bets small pocket pairs from bb, caps certainly dominated hands.

Fishy?

[/ QUOTE ]

This results in:
BB/100: 2.58

If we assume that:

(1) DERB has std deviation of 2 BB per game (which I believe is reasonably conservative - the std deviation I have experienced in full-ring 15/30 is 1.74 BB per game);

(2) He is a breakeven player (ie, expected win rate is 0 BB/100)

Then with a confidence of 99.7% (3 std dev), his win rate over 73,824 hands will fall between -2.22 and +2.22 BB/100.

I will let you draw your own conclusions from this.

Re: DERB
 

I went through some DERB hands on my tracker today. I didn't find a lot of hands where he played particularly poorly postflop, although there certainly were a few where better players could have made a laydown. But tight laydowns on the turn aren't exactly the way to win on partypoker (also I'm only looking at hands where I see his cards, so I'm not seeing spots where he did make a laydown) But his preflop standards are atrocious. I have many hands where he cold calls early raises with KJo, QJo, and Axs. He simply will not fold QJo preflop.

Re: DERB
 

I'm surprised no one has suggest the possibility that this player loses money w/ the awful plays that everyone has mentioned, but is still a winning player in this game, at perhaps .5 BB / 100 or something. Although I haven't palyed with him, this seems like the most mathematically likely scenario.

Edit: I shouldn't have really said no one suggested the possibility. It justs seems to have been overlooked in many posts.

Re: DERB
 

Very plausible. However, I believe that the possibility of highly sophisticated team play cannot be ignored. I would humbly suggest that this forum needs to seriously and methodically address this question.

I don't even know where to start, but here's a a few questions I'm interested in:

(1) Over what time period has DERB accumulated these winnings?

(2) What players are in the pot when DERB makes unusual preflop decisions, and what do their stats say about them?

Not sure where these questions lead, or even if they are the right questions to ask. As such, I'm interested in any good info on team play that others can point me to. I have yet to review the Russ Georgiev web site - is there any value to doing so?

Thanks.

Re: DERB Acts a fool
 

Sorry, I didn't proofread my post. I never post observed hand histories, I guess bison's hand converter doesn't like them. Here is the HH with manual modifications:

***** Hand History for Game 1977402981 *****
$30/$60 Hold'em - Saturday, April 30, 14:30:06 EDT 2005
Table Beauty & the Beast (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: SB ( $1111 )
Seat 6: DERB ( $3301.5 )
Seat 4: Button ( $1530 )
Seat 8: ( $1698 )
Seat 9: ( $961 )
Seat 1: ( $1772.7 )
Seat 3: ( $1740 )
Seat 7: ( $3006 )
Seat 10:( $4814 )
Seat 2: ( $214.5 )
SB posts small blind [$15].
DERB posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
6 Players fold.
Button raises [$60].
SB calls [$45].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Ah, 7s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$30].
SB calls [$30].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$60].
SB folds.
DERB calls [$60].
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
DERB bets [$60].
Button calls [$60].
DERB shows [ 6s, Qs ] a pair of queens.
Button doesn't show [ Ks, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
DERB wins $507 from the main pot with a pair of queens.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Very plausible. However, I believe that the possibility of highly sophisticated team play cannot be ignored. I would humbly suggest that this forum needs to seriously and methodically address this question.

I don't even know where to start, but here's a a few questions I'm interested in:

(1) Over what time period has DERB accumulated these winnings?

(2) What players are in the pot when DERB makes unusual preflop decisions, and what do their stats say about them?

Not sure where these questions lead, or even if they are the right questions to ask. As such, I'm interested in any good info on team play that others can point me to. I have yet to review the Russ Georgiev web site - is there any value to doing so?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

He makes these moves indescriminately. He will make them on the most seasoned regulars who never fold to him to unknowns to weak tights.
-Jaames

Re: DERB
 

Show me the data to support this statement.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Show me the data to support this statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does he need data? It's not enough that he plays a lot of hands with him and watches how he plays?

Re: DERB
 

I don't know if this was mentioned already but are there any other players with similarly out of line stats? They dont have to be as extreme.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Show me the data to support this statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think I am going to dig through my database to prove this to you? Surely, I have better things to do than that. How about this: I have played 5 figures worth of hands with him and called him down in innumerable bluffing situations and picked him off with as little as ace high, but he still tries them against me. This is the evidence I offer you, Detective Fat Tony, take it or leave it.
-James

Re: DERB
 

He doesn't need to show me the data - if his experience is good enough for him, that's fine. However, with all due respect, I remain unconvinced unless I can see the data for myself. Otherwise, it might be fair for others to label me a dolt.

I'm interesting in exploring the issue, but this can only be done when we use the data to seperate the facts from the opinions.

Re: DERB
 

You have better things to do with your time - I can respect that. However, if I (or anyone else) are going to draw valid conclusions from what you (or anyone else) say in this chain, then what you offer is not enough. No disrespect intended.

I think one of two things are going on: either a person can win with 30% VPIP, or there's something fishy going on. (The statistics say that this is probably more than just luck.) Either way, I want to know the facts.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
either a person can win with 30% VPIP

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that it is impossible to win with a 30% VPIP. In fact, I think almost any of the well respected posters in this forum would still be winners if they were forced to get their vpip up to 30%.

This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

http://solastyear.com/catglassown.jpg

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


OOT Rooolz!


Actually my minor contribution...I'm a 2bb/100 winner with a 26ish vpip. I've got a pretty large sample size (much more since my post in General on the matter). I deviate from the 22er strategy about 10% of the time, sometime to satiate the gambler in me sometimes because I think my reads are better then others. Just food for thought.

(or i totally suck and am running well)

Re: DERB
 

You're having a great run of comedy. I'm awarding you OTTer of the week.

But the last thing we need is the pwned brats harrassing real poker players.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're having a great run of comedy. I'm awarding you OTTer of the week.

But the last thing we need is the pwned brats harrassing real poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont care, im still laughing funniest one yet.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


OOT Rooolz!


Actually my minor contribution...I'm a 2bb/100 winner with a 26ish vpip. I've got a pretty large sample size (much more since my post in General on the matter). I deviate from the 22er strategy about 10% of the time, sometime to satiate the gambler in me sometimes because I think my reads are better then others. Just food for thought.

(or i totally suck and am running well)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have that VPIP in the 30 60 on Party? If so, how many hands are we talking here? I'll assume you are talking 15/30, which is an entirely different beast altogether.
-James

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


OOT Rooolz!


Actually my minor contribution...I'm a 2bb/100 winner with a 26ish vpip. I've got a pretty large sample size (much more since my post in General on the matter). I deviate from the 22er strategy about 10% of the time, sometime to satiate the gambler in me sometimes because I think my reads are better then others. Just food for thought.

(or i totally suck and am running well)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have that VPIP in the 30 60 on Party? If so, how many hands are we talking here? I'll assume you are talking 15/30, which is an entirely different beast altogether.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

you need to stop posting in this thread like i need to go to sleep.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably Jessica Biel.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

James 282 has always been one of my favorite posters, but lately, he's really on his game.

That is all. Back to my lurking.

Re: DERB
 

So am I the only one who actually wants to do this prop bet? Something like "whoever has the highest VP$IP and still maintains a break-even or better winrate over X hands wins" or something? It'd make for some absolutely incredible hand history posts. If it's done at a level I can afford, hell I'd do it weekly.

Re: DERB
 

Yes. His Andrew Prock Rebuttal was perfect. I better not find out he's proofreading his posts.

Re: DERB
 

Nothing beats a good JV thread with legs.



Edited for perfect wording.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heaven forbid anyone spend time on this forum discussing something poker related instead of posting PWNED! pictures and offering thousands of replies over which unattainable celebrity we'd prefer to bang.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


OOT Rooolz!


Actually my minor contribution...I'm a 2bb/100 winner with a 26ish vpip. I've got a pretty large sample size (much more since my post in General on the matter). I deviate from the 22er strategy about 10% of the time, sometime to satiate the gambler in me sometimes because I think my reads are better then others. Just food for thought.

(or i totally suck and am running well)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have that VPIP in the 30 60 on Party? If so, how many hands are we talking here? I'll assume you are talking 15/30, which is an entirely different beast altogether.
-James

[/ QUOTE ] I was drunk and wasnt thinking straight. 15/30.

(self imposed poker related posting ban starts...now)

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. His Andrew Prock Rebuttal was perfect. I better not find out he's proofreading his posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes not...he plays and posts and talks and answers phones and prepares dinner and drives all at the same time.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing beats a good JV thread with legs.



Edited for perfect wording.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: A Championship Boast ?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: DERB
 

DID SOMEONE SAY PROP BET ???

I'm in, the bet amount must be worth it !!!

I was thinking 6,000 15-30 hands, VPIP 28, most money won

lets gamble....

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you a very simple question. What is the EV of calling the river? You seem to think it's very low, but I'll wager that you couldn't even begin to estimate the EV of any of the plays he made.

Again, this is a fairly pedestrian hand. There were no gross errors. If this is what you dredge up as an example of "horrible" play, then I'll have to answer:

Yes, this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which you are not aware.

School is over.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

Re: DERB
 

I'd already win. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]

DID SOMEONE SAY PROP BET ???

I'm in, the bet amount must be worth it !!!

I was thinking 6,000 15-30 hands, VPIP 28, most money won

lets gamble....

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a pretty big difference between a 28 VPIP at party 15/30 where you are exercising table selection and a 28 VPIP at party 30/60.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you a very simple question. What is the EV of calling the river? You seem to think it's very low, but I'll wager that you couldn't even begin to estimate the EV of any of the plays he made.

Again, this is a fairly pedestrian hand. There were no gross errors. If this is what you dredge up as an example of "horrible" play, then I'll have to answer:

Yes, this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which you are not aware.

School is over.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's funny. Overcalling the river has an EV of -1 big bets.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]

Now that's funny. Overcalling the river has an EV of -1 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, not even a clue how to estimate it.

- Andrew

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Now that's funny. Overcalling the river has an EV of -1 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, not even a clue how to estimate it.

- Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright Prock lets say there are some magic metagame situations (i.e. people will be scared to bluff him, though they should counter with relentless value-betting or maybe he is sooo smart to set this up for this one hand and will make it up later) there is no way that he can compensenate from giving away approximately -1 BB on his river overcall.

Re: DERB
 

Hi Andrew, glad you contributed, seriously. Yep I agree with you that saying that it's -1 BB EV is wrong. Not saying I'm a that sophisticated of a player. What I've noted on this forum is that there is a specific lack of EV estimates when analyzing hands. Put another way, there's a specific lack quantitative analysis supporting why one line of play has a higher EV than an alternative line of play. It's always been that way.

Re: DERB
 

Are there any scenarios that the overcall could be winning this hand?

Re: DERB
 

I estimate that it is a terrible overcall. Worth a good steak dinner at least.

5 x 4 = 20 = 10
3 x 1 = 3 = 1.5
3 x 1 = 3
2 x 1 = 2

you'll be good about 1 in 50.

16.5 BB * 1 = 16.5
-1 * 49 = -49

-32.5 / 50 = -.65 BB