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-   -   Cards call up Ankiel (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=473378)

New001 08-09-2007 08:06 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA.

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Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair.

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Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust?

Boris 08-09-2007 08:11 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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JoA did a regression analysis on it, as have others. It's around 1.8.

Anyway, I look forward to seeing Ankiel on a field again.

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What were the variables?

kyleb 08-09-2007 08:20 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust?

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There's this guy named Barry Bonds, but he's black, so it obviously doesn't count.

kyleb 08-09-2007 08:21 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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JoA did a regression analysis on it, as have others. It's around 1.8.

Anyway, I look forward to seeing Ankiel on a field again.

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What were the variables?

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Hell if I know. I like to use 2.0 as an easy coefficient.

Case Closed 08-09-2007 08:21 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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The perfect Hollywood ending involves the Cards running out of pitchers in a big game and turning to Ankiel in extra innings.

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TLR: Ankiel, you're the only man we got...we need you now more than ever!
Ankiel: Tony! My arm is shot! Didn't you read the reports?
Kid with cancer: *cough* *cough* Ankiel, shucks if you don't go out there and pitch I don't think I'll make it.
Ankiel: Alright kid, Ima gonna go in there and give it all I got!

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Then Ankiel throws a wild pitch but covers the plate just in time to stop the run from scoring.

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That sequence would take about 15 of the movie. Him diving to the plate to get the last out. Very moving stuff.

mason55 08-09-2007 08:35 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
I think he should be able to throw 125mph befor ehe throws the wild pitch, like that kid in Rookie of the Year

New001 08-09-2007 08:55 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's this guy named Barry Bonds, but he's black, so it obviously doesn't count.

[/ QUOTE ]
Major League, not National League.

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

kyleb 08-09-2007 08:55 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_7PzR9H_54

This is pretty sad.

g-bebe 08-09-2007 09:05 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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I really hope he is successful. He was such a bright star as a young pitcher it was painful to watch him fall apart like that. I, for one, hope he finds a lot of success.

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DesertCat 08-09-2007 09:10 PM

Re: Cards call up Ankiel
 
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sure his OBP sucks, but a guy who a .270/.316/.570 guy has good value

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But that's AAA numbers. What's the expected translation to the majors? If it's a 10% reduction he'd be .243/.285/.523. That provides what looks like a decent OPS (.808), except that OBP is probably worth 3x SLG. So his EQA is likely to be below league average. That's not good for a corner outfielder who struggles defensively.

For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. And if his hitting ever falls off he could never play the outfield for anyone. As soon as Piazza is moved Cust is a full time DH.

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I'm not positive, but from what I have read about sabermetrics, this is way off.

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In Moneyball IIRC Paul Depodesta said he thought it was worth 3x by his analysis. Let's assume Kyleb is right and it's 1.8x. If Ankiels OBP is 20% below league average, his SLG has to be something like 36% better than league average (NL average SLG .414) to make him just an average hitter. I think his SLG would have to be north of .550 just to make him an average hitter.

And a league average hitter in a corner outfield position is a below average hitting outfielder. A below average hitting outfielder who makes tons of errors wouldn't be useful.


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