Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

I was making about 11 bucks an hour. Swings are ridiculous. Youll see stacks can go from 100 to 500 in 30 minutes...and obv. the other way. There are many big pots without big hands.
Not uncommmon to be down 500 and come out ahead. Best night I was bought in for 500 and cashed out for 2550 on a 100 max table. Sick 24 hour session.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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I wouldn't say it if it wasnt true Matt... its going to be a very popular book. Congrats to you and the boys! When the book comes out it would be great if you start a "B&M NL" thread here to discuss how players can adjust to the table texture in a live game. There is a common thread among some in this forum that they assume B&M and online games "play" different, it would be great if you can discuss how the concepts are the same between online and live with adjustments according to table texture, opponent information, etc. I think it would help a lot of players who are hard-core B&M forum fans who may not visit the Full Ring NL or SSNL forums that often!

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Great idea TT. I don't play live as much as some on these forums, but I would love to discuss in depth B&M strategy if a thread like that was started. There are quite a few newbies that come here and don't really know what to expect when they go to a casino.

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So what kind of hourly can one expect at 1/2NL? I can't think it would be more than $10 an hour after rake/tips....


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I think 5bb/hr is pretty low. Remember, most of these games play higher than their bb. So in reality, though you put $2 or $3 out there, the standard raise is often $10-$15 and can even get up to $20+ in some games! This has a huge impact on a "winrate."

Personally, I think $20+ is very sustainable in the long term for a very good player. As stated, he wouldn't even be at that limit very long though. Maybe a couple weeks tops depending on his run of cards. I had planned to set out and track my results but never got around to it. I'm really lazy in writing down sessions, etc., and I also don't play live as much as I can here in L.A.

The live game plays a lot like 10NL or sometimes lower online. The toughest table I played before wasn't any better than 25NL. In those games online a really good player can achieve over 10ptbb/100. This would be 20bb/100 in a live game(pt doubles the blind). At 30 hands an hour that's roughly 7bb, or $14-$18/hr. Factor in the higher standard raise and that's $20+.

I may be way off here but I really do think an excellent player can reach $30/hr in that game. Why anyone would do so in the long run is on them. If you can crush it you could probably make close to twice that in the 2/5 game. I think only $10/hr is a little low.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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I have heard that an expert player can sustain $15 per hour in these games.

Anyone got other opinions or experience?

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I was watching Live@theBike and a viewer emailed Bart Hansen (is that his name?) a question how much can a good NL player make per hour. Bart said an expert can make between 10-15 times the Big blind. An expert 1-2 player could make $20-$30 per hour and an expert at 2-5 NL could make $50-$75 per hour.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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Yeah, think of it like this, a player with a 20BI roll ($4k) and a true (but unknown) winrate of $15/hr:

* would need 800-1000 hours of play to get in 25k hands to establish his winrate as something other than variance

* but would hit the $10k BR requirement for the 2-5 game in an average of only 400 hours

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I think this is pretty true. Here's the thing: I think a really good player could make $30 hour at this level (ok, excuse this, but that would be me, as in when I first switched to NL, I assumed I knew nothing, and played at this level, and made about that, and don't feel like I ran better than even).

But, a really good player wouldn't stay at this level long. So, really, the question should be, how much can a player good enough to beat the 1/2, but not good enough to make more at 2/5, win per hour?

I'd guess maybe $15 max.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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Yeah, think of it like this, a player with a 20BI roll ($4k) and a true (but unknown) winrate of $15/hr:

* would need 800-1000 hours of play to get in 25k hands to establish his winrate as something other than variance

* but would hit the $10k BR requirement for the 2-5 game in an average of only 400 hours

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I think this is pretty true. Here's the thing: I think a really good player could make $30 hour at this level (ok, excuse this, but that would be me, as in when I first switched to NL, I assumed I knew nothing, and played at this level, and made about that, and don't feel like I ran better than even).

But, a really good player wouldn't stay at this level long. So, really, the question should be, how much can a player good enough to beat the 1/2, but not good enough to make more at 2/5, win per hour?

I'd guess maybe $15 max.

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I really like that explanation.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

save enough to play 2/5, the games are just as easy

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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Then, those same folks will bet huge (a $20 standard raise is not unusual)

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Uh, standard at 1/2?

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maybe, but that's wildly huge if your experience is online. The point is, if the standard raise is $20, and you have 3-4 players minimum (usually also true), then the flop bets and later get in the range of $80-100 very quickly. At that rate, someone buying in at even the $200 max is quickly forced to make all-in decisions on what should be a very standard hand.

Players that can accumulate $500-600 quickly can easily put a lot of other players in that situation and build themselves a major advantage by doing that.

If you want to go to Vegas as a casual player and play the minimum limits, you're highly vulnerable to that style of play. Even if you play ultra-tight and try to double up when you hit a monster, these same guys who could pay you off notice what you're doing pretty quick and then fold to your every raise.

To tell you the truth, I've mostly witnessed this play at Planet Hollywood, but the one time I played at the Bellagio it wasn't much better.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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As a dealer at the IP I can verify he is not kidding. The games are so soft it is crazy. It is a high variance game with people calling down with 2nd pair, etc. Buy-ins are capped at 200, min of 60. You get $2 per hour when you are playing in cash games for comps... which goes a long way in that place as food is cheap.

Stay away from the buffet, 5th floor is good tho.

I work days, so if you are in there feel free to stop in and say Hello. Only bald white guy on Days... can't miss me.

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ok well the 1/2 game at Imperial is absolutely ridiculously soft. If there's a softer game during the drinking hours, I don't know of it.

But as everyone said, you're massively jumping the gun with your roll and even probably your skill level. Sounds like you're taking a much too simplistic strategic view of things.

Can you beat the 1/2 game online at all ? I mean if you can break even at that you'll crush the IP game. But if you're a net loses at the 1/2 game online, it's not time to go at this with any kind of ambition...

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so where does the variance come from in a game where you can just valuebet mercilessly?

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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The point is, if the standard raise is $20, and you have 3-4 players minimum (usually also true), then the flop bets and later get in the range of $80-100 very quickly.

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Oddly enough, in my experience playing live, the flop bets don't go up as much as they should. Lets say bad MP player raises 1 limper to $20. CO, BTN, BB and limper both call. $100 pot, checks to MP. A very standard bet here is $30 bucks. Rarely do you see anyone at low stakes bet 1/2-2/3 pot, and even rarer is the pot size c-bet.

Re: Beginning 1/2 NL grinding in Vegas
 

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As a dealer at the IP I can verify he is not kidding. The games are so soft it is crazy. It is a high variance game with people calling down with 2nd pair, etc. Buy-ins are capped at 200, min of 60. You get $2 per hour when you are playing in cash games for comps... which goes a long way in that place as food is cheap.

Stay away from the buffet, 5th floor is good tho.

I work days, so if you are in there feel free to stop in and say Hello. Only bald white guy on Days... can't miss me.

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ok well the 1/2 game at Imperial is absolutely ridiculously soft. If there's a softer game during the drinking hours, I don't know of it.

But as everyone said, you're massively jumping the gun with your roll and even probably your skill level. Sounds like you're taking a much too simplistic strategic view of things.

Can you beat the 1/2 game online at all ? I mean if you can break even at that you'll crush the IP game. But if you're a net loses at the 1/2 game online, it's not time to go at this with any kind of ambition...

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so where does the variance come from in a game where you can just valuebet mercilessly?

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It comes from 5 other people seeing the flop and at least one of them having a better hand than yours.

It usually goes like this - $75 in the pot preflop, you flop TPTK, someone leads out for $20, you say "wimp!" and pop it to $60. Two guys call. Turn, they check, you bet, they call. Same on the river. You show two pair. One guy shows a higher two pair and the other shows a rivered straight.