Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

like they said, your postflop game must be awful. just play straight up and bet when you have the goods. ppl at 25NL don't fold.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

[/ QUOTE ]
Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

[/ QUOTE ]
Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

[/ QUOTE ]
Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know anything about statistics?
Here there are 18K hands, not a million.
A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%.

Edit: Cliffnotes: IMTHEWORST LOSES.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know anything about statistics?
Here there are 18K hands, not a million.
A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%.



[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
cliffnotes included to clarify.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

[/ QUOTE ]
Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know anything about statistics?
Here there are 18K hands, not a million.
A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol. 18k hands is NOTHING. You are basing your 'statistical model' on a vastly inadequate sample size. Repeat: OP could be a loser by chance alone. What are the chances of that? Who knows, the sample size is way too small to mean anything.

Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

[/ QUOTE ]
Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know anything about statistics?
Here there are 18K hands, not a million.
A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol. 18k hands is NOTHING. You are basing your 'statistical model' on a vastly inadequate sample size. Repeat: OP could be a loser by chance alone. What are the chances of that? Who knows, the sample size is way too small to mean anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is a total mystery. the world will never know.