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-   -   5/10 - flopped bottom set (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=108558)

El Diablo 05-09-2006 04:39 PM

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 
pj,

Because this is a simple situation for not very high stakes with shallow stacks. It is not a bad situation to discuss. It's just not the sort of situation that is going to generate interesting discussion on this forum, but might be quite interesting to players on the other forums. Both you and the posters there would get more out of that discussion.

Bigfoot 05-09-2006 06:58 PM

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 
I have to agree with everyone wondering about why you're looking to get away from this. Folding sets with 100bb is difficult and almost always wrong in this type of situation. You'd have to know without a doubt that button would re-raise JJ/QQ/KK/AA 100% of the time to even consider this type of fold.

Think about it this way, there are two possible scenarios:
1. Button has 88 or 55 and has you crushed and called to try and bring you along.

or

2. Button has a pair other than 88 or 55 and called simply because the PFR is short stacked and you havent shown any indication you have any hand. In other words, he's willing to see if his pair is better than the PFR's pair (if he has one).

The 2nd scenario is far more likely and I think you see a pair other than 55 or 88 here a lot more frequently than you're suggesting. If you're looking to fold bottom set/mid set on these boards for 100bb you need to stop playing low pairs preflop. Also, for what its worth, this board is infinitely better than the K/Q/2 you suggested when you have a preflop raiser.

pocketjesuits 05-09-2006 07:55 PM

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 
Thanks for the input. A key part of my feeling was the timing tell, as I think 99-JJ thinks here for more than 2 seconds before deciding to stack off with the pre-flop raiser (plus the possibility of checkraises from up front).

I don't look to get away from sets, and I can hardly remember times where I succesfully folded them. I just had an incredibly strong feeling that button had a set here due to the table dynamic / his range / the timing. I would also never think of folding mid-set on this board, obviously.

Once button shows interest, there are definitely more of his hands that you have to be worried of on 852 rainbow than KQ2 two-once. That is what I meant by KQ2 being a better flop for me - sure there is a greater chance that the pre-flop raiser has set v. setted me on KQ2, but i'm not concerned about him, as I am obviously stacking off against him all day.

donkey 05-09-2006 08:22 PM

Re: 5/10 - flopped bottom set
 
pocketjesuits,

Just because you told yourself that the button must have 88/55 and it turned out he did, doesn't mean you should have folded. This would be such a terrible terrible fold.

The quick call looks a lot more like 99-QQ than a set. A set is prolly going to at least ponder the idea of raising before deciding to smooth-call. Also, MP2 is a donkey, why can't he have 99? Don't you think the button includes A8,99,AK in a donkeys range here? You think a good player is folding TT/JJ here?

Full ring nit-fests suck. Switch to 6max where you dont have to worry about these decisions.


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