Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think your line vs. an unknown doesn't get near enough money in the pot. I think that you should bet the turn, and if you get raised I'd three-bet a lot of guys live.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doing anything other than checking the turn and calling the river vs. an unknown in this spot is absurd IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is easily the worst possible line

[/ QUOTE ]

please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

no need. i figured it out.

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think your line vs. an unknown doesn't get near enough money in the pot. I think that you should bet the turn, and if you get raised I'd three-bet a lot of guys live.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is a huge hand here, so big that worse hands figure to raise you here pretty often. Obviously tempo/player-specific stuff comes into play here, but lots of guys like to take shots when an Ace falls (as they should). And I think some people are overestimating the chances we're beat. Not only are incredibly few hands beating us in the first place, many of those hands raise the flop.

--Nate

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think your line vs. an unknown doesn't get near enough money in the pot. I think that you should bet the turn, and if you get raised I'd three-bet a lot of guys live.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is a huge hand here, so big that worse hands figure to raise you here pretty often. Obviously tempo/player-specific stuff comes into play here, but lots of guys like to take shots when an Ace falls (as they should). And I think some people are overestimating the chances we're beat. Not only are incredibly few hands beating us in the first place, many of those hands raise the flop.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

so, you're gonna fold to a 4bet then? fwiw, i think 3betting this turn is significantly worse than checking it.

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think your line vs. an unknown doesn't get near enough money in the pot. I think that you should bet the turn, and if you get raised I'd three-bet a lot of guys live.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is a huge hand here, so big that worse hands figure to raise you here pretty often. Obviously tempo/player-specific stuff comes into play here, but lots of guys like to take shots when an Ace falls (as they should). And I think some people are overestimating the chances we're beat. Not only are incredibly few hands beating us in the first place, many of those hands raise the flop.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

so, you're gonna fold to a 4bet then? fwiw, i think 3betting this turn is significantly worse than checking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerBob--

Getting fourbet would be anguishing, but it will very rarely happen.

I understand that reasonable people can disagree about whether to 3bet here. I'll say that with my image it's often correct. (Also, sometimes when you're behind you pick up a physical tell and get a free showdown, but that's not a huge EV consideration here.)

The thing to realize is that AQ is a huge hand here, and even more so given that he's just check-called and checked.

--Nate

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
however... one benefit is the following.

By checking the turn I think you induce a crying call on the river by ANY pair if it's checked to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this hand was way overthought. Except for this comment, which I agree with.

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however... one benefit is the following.

By checking the turn I think you induce a crying call on the river by ANY pair if it's checked to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this hand was way overthought. Except for this comment, which I agree with.

[/ QUOTE ]

One way to think about this hand is: if you wouldn't make this play with AA, you probably shouldn't make it with AQ either.

--Nate

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

I would be even more likely to make it with AA, Nate. Because that reduces the combos of hands villain can hold with an ace in them -- making it even more profitable to induce a river bluff than to let him fold the turn before catching up to a showdownable second-best hand.

Re: Inducing a bluff
 

Joker--

OK, fair enough. I should have said: if you had some magic spell that will award you the pot no matter what...

What I've been tempted to say all along is that you have the nuts until your opponent tells you otherwise, but not thinking about your opponent's hand is no way to play poker, so I've resisted. If you really think that your opponent's range is such that he's folding almost everything worse, and that he's checkraising everything better, fine. But in most real-world situations I think you should bet this hand, for the same reasons you bet other very strong hands.

--Nate