Re: UFC 76
 

Anyone know when Performity is coming out with his picks? (I forgot his website's name or else I'd go there)

I'm looking to make a max bet on a fight (watching so makes it more fun) and not sure where the "least -EV bet is" LOL

Re: UFC 76
 

Anybody betting on the Griffin/Tavares fight?

Griffin -150
Tavares +120

on Bodog

Re: UFC 76
 

Rika,

Per usually posts his stuff the day before the fight.

Re: UFC 76
 

How do you play at pinny trix?

Re: UFC 76
 

Doesn't he look Canadian to you?

-P

Re: UFC 76
 

i'm as canadian as dennis kang is korean

Re: UFC 76
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm as canadian as dennis kang is korean

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt you are even that korean.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka is +190 on bookmaker and I think it's a good bet for you guys. I've already maxed my unit size with him on bodog @ +200 though.

Re: UFC 76
 

What "upsets" have their been this year ?

UFC 68, did you really think that an even more 1-D fighter than K-cop would really beat Couture?
UFC 69, the only real shocker IMO with Serra vs GSP.
UFC 70, All GG had to do was lay n pray 2 rounds to win. Instead he did much more but even if he just wrested for 10 minutes he woulda won.
UFC 71, how was Liddell the favorite to win I still don't understand ? The hype around him was unreal. I mean who was the last great striker he lost to ? Rampage .. after the Rampage/Liddell 1st fight all he did was fight wrestlers ... and we all know he's nearly impossible to take/keep down.

To the hype most of those are big upsets but if u research the fights they weren't really except the GSP/Serra fight. With Griffin/Shogun I see no way how Forrest could possible outstrike Shogun. Shogun is aggressive and TOUGH. Forrest is tough but he's just far to slow IMO to handle the Shogun onslaught. Shogun's strengths in this fight are Forrest's strengths times 5 and he has REAL KO power. I mean Forrests's first few fights after his TUF finale win were against chumps who he was supposed to beat/KO in order to hype him up even further. I really like Forrest and love to watch him fight but I just realistically just don't see how he is gonna outstrike Shogun.

Re: UFC 76
 

Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

Re: UFC 76
 

Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win on one guy, due to factors like slips, lucky punches, etc. Like what Jardine did to Forrest, Serra to GSP, etc.

However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

I think Liddell will pick Jardine apart the same way that Griffin did. But Chuck's skill level is much, much higher than Griffin's. I think he's smart and skilled enough not to get caught. And a strong enough chin to survive it, even if he does. Especially now that he's been knocked out. I expect he will be very conscious of that being repeated.

I think the value is on Chuck here.



Rua and Forrest on the other hand...

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

Elbows shouldn't be a problem. Chute Boxe has plenty of experience with that.

Forrest, since around Griffin/Bonnar 2, has been a much more disciplined striker, preferring to pick his shots, sticking and moving. Using lots of long-range leg kicks. This is exactly what he's going to need for Rua.

The octagon is a larger structure than the ring, and has no definitive corners, making it more difficult for Rua to catch Griffin, or trap him into a corner.

The other factor working in Griffin's favor is the 5 minute round. He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round, where Rua would almost certainly catch up to and outclass him. But it is conceivable Griffin can keep out of reach for 5 minutes at a stretch.

I expect Rua to win, but I think the +EV bet is a small bet on Griffin.