Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I agree Snowball looks like two pair, but if he's going to fold two pair to a threebet then Joker can exploit the crap out of him.

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This is so rare that it really isn't worth worrying about.
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And I don't think Joker can put Snowball so squarely on two pair, simply because Snowball can't put Joker squarely on a pair at all. This could be an opportunistic raise in a substantial pot against someone who probably doesn't have much and someone who might not.


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What has PJ done in this hand to give the impression that he doesn't have anything????

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And, as I elaborated on before, I think this is a spot where Joker should be looking for reasons to 3-bet, not to call.


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3betting this turn against anyone other than a spazz is just plain bad.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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PokerBob--

Is this really that bad? LP can easily have garbage and PJ can easily have AK/AQ. [Insert thing about fractions of bets and big pots.]


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If PJ does indeed have AK/AQ he may (a) not even bet it on the turn and (b) ain't folding it to a c/r.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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PokerBob--

Is this really that bad? LP can easily have garbage and PJ can easily have AK/AQ. [Insert thing about fractions of bets and big pots.]


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If PJ does indeed have AK/AQ he may (a) not even bet it on the turn and (b) ain't folding it to a c/r.

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May not? There is no way Joker bets AK/AQ into 4 players if he is sober and I have never seen him not be. The last thing he wants is to get popped and have to call for his gutshot+possible pair outs.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

oh sorry guys. I neglected to mention I was BB. I think some people just deduced I was given that I CRed the turn and acted after PJ preflop.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I would play a turned pair+flushdraw like this.

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well that sure is bad.

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no it really isn't. it's almost breakeven equity wise and it might buy me a fold on the river VS pj.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I would play a turned pair+flushdraw like this.

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well that sure is bad.

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no it really isn't. it's almost breakeven equity wise and it might buy me a fold on the river VS pj.

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PJ never (or very very rarely) folds a better hand here. What does he think you have when you take this line that beats one pair? there isn't much here that he can give you that beats him. when that is the case and the pot is big, good players don't fold.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I agree Snowball looks like two pair, but if he's going to fold two pair to a threebet then Joker can exploit the crap out of him.

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what Snowball should do and what he will do are two different things. Snowball, and most other tags like him will call (no offense snowball - this is not a slight on you at all) because they see two pair and hope its good on the river. Exploitability shouldn't be a concern in PJ's eyes because Snowball wouldn't play this way with anything less than 2 pair.

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I understand that exploitability is far from the end of the story, but in a spot like this it's worth thinking about.

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PJ should only be thinking about exploiting Snowballs inability to fold 2-pair or better on this turn, folding out top pair shouldn't even cross his mind because snowball won't play that way with top pair.


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And I don't think Joker can put Snowball so squarely on two pair

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i dont think he can put him squarely on 2 pair either, sets are also within the range. Nothing smaller than 2 pair is in his range however when he c/r the field on the turn.

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simply because Snowball can't put Joker squarely on a pair at all.

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If Joker bets the turn with anything less than a pair, unless its precisely KsQs then he would have lost his mind. Its not happening, PJ knows better than that.

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This could be an opportunistic raise in a substantial pot against someone who probably doesn't have much and someone who might not. Or it could just be for value with a Q that he for some reason decided to check twice.

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its not within snowballs realm of experience to do that. All you have to do is read his countless posts on the strat forums to know that Snowball isn't getting frisky with top pair. Thats one of the great benefits of playing vs 2+2 tags, they are often easy to read and predictable in multi-way pots.


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And, as I elaborated on before, I think this is a spot where Joker should be looking for reasons to 3-bet, not to call

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3-betting here with an overpair is suicide. 3-betting here with a set is brilliant because PJ will get maximum value.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I would play a turned pair+flushdraw like this.

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well that sure is bad.

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no it really isn't. it's almost breakeven equity wise and it might buy me a fold on the river VS pj.

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its bad. PJ has precisely top pair or better or KsQs here always.

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I would play a turned pair+flushdraw like this.

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well that sure is bad.

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no it really isn't. it's almost breakeven equity wise and it might buy me a fold on the river VS pj.

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assuming the other player has a clubless draw
(which is the best possible scenario other than her having absolutely nothing), we get this. bleh.

Board: Jc Td 3c 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.332% 33.33% 00.00% 37976060 0.00 { Tc8c }
Hand 1: 57.144% 57.15% 00.00% 65107010 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 2: 09.524% 09.52% 00.00% 10851232 0.00 { KhQs }

or, if we did indeed turn a pair with the nut FD, we get this. again, bleh.

Board: Jc Td 3c 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.192% 26.19% 00.00% 13188918 0.00 { Ac6c }
Hand 1: 59.517% 59.52% 00.00% 29969544 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 2: 14.290% 14.29% 00.00% 7195716 0.00 { KhQs }

Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
 

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I would play a turned pair+flushdraw like this.

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well that sure is bad.

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no it really isn't. it's almost breakeven equity wise and it might buy me a fold on the river VS pj.

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its bad. PJ has precisely top pair or better or KsQs here always.

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You think he is calling me down every time when I CR the turn with any top pair or one pair hand? I know I would have to worry about the lady as well, but she has a draw pretty often on this particular board.