Re: weird donk
 

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btw, nina the new poker bob?

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I think I get it, and I think it's a compliment. Pokerbob used to one of the most active 2+2ers when it came to posting hands just like you Nina. Also like you, Pokerbob's hands usually involved very close/debatable situations.

IMO you and pokerbob are both outstanding hand posters.

Re: weird donk
 

we cant call a 3 bet and i dont think we can fold, i also dont think he ever calls a reraise here, he either folds or 3 bets so i dont see much merit to it, i think calling is really the only option here.

Re: weird donk
 

All,

"Ive seen him limp almost every hand and he showed down an open limped J6s from the HJ. I also saw him bluff flop, check turn, then bluff again on the river."


This is the only read we have on the villain. How are ppl all of a sudden experts on what he'll turn up with here?

If you don't see b/c with retardo hands by bad players in your games, that's fine, but please don't tell me 5x,99, or AK aren't in his range.

Granted they are weighted differently, so if anybody has gone through their PT db and picked out the erratic LP fish and examined their river donks and decided it's always with a monster, I'd love to see the data. Hasn't been my limited experience though.

To be fair, I have no problem if ppl say, "it's close but I lean towards calling" or "not sure about the read, but the player-type I have in mind doesn't donk mediocre hands in this spot too often". But the "easy,easy call" type posts are really starting to get on my nerves.

Re: weird donk
 

Unless he's tilting I cant' imagine him playing A3 or A4 UTG obv which are the only logical hands that beat you here right? I still just call though, may lose value in the long run though, not sure.

Re: weird donk
 

he is bb. if it were utg i would raise so fast lol.

Re: weird donk
 

vma, are you advocating raise/call or raise/fold on the river? There seems to be disagreement among the raisers as to what to do if 3bet.

While I agree with the general principle that you don't always have to have a plan to deal with getting 3bet to justify a raise (in some cases, it's so obviously +EV to raise regardless of what you do when 3bet), but in this spot we're going to be 3bet fairly frequently because 4x hands are a large part of his range (even if not everyone agrees just how large).

I don't think it's an "easy easy" call but I don't really think it's that close either. It's one of those calls where you're probably good a fair amount of the time, but not 50% of the time when your raise is called/reraised (and that doesn't even get into what your plan is for dealing with a 3bet). FWIW, I don't play on Absolute, so it's possible the games play differently there.

Anyway, I agree it's close enough that a slightly different read would lead to raise. But the primary reason I would raise is because I thought my opponent was going to play 5x like that frequently, since that is the hand I want to get calls from. The passive description makes it possible that he would check/call flop and turn, but I would need to know that he makes thin river value bets (not awful river bluffs) before I would expect raising to be the best play. So IF he showed up with, says 7s 5s, after I called this time, THEN I would adjust my read and look for places to raise for value on the river (like this hand) against him.

Re: weird donk
 

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to those who say don't fold. if he 3-bets you, how often do you think you have him beat?

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it's not about what to do when 3bet, i'm saying you have "1" pair vs. a person who sucks at poker.

You do not know the value of this persons hand. He might have trash, he might have a straight he might have a boat.

When you have JJ on this board, and he bets, the only play is to call

What to do when 3bet shouldn't even be a question you need to worry about.

Re: weird donk
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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btw, nina the new poker bob?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I get it, and I think it's a compliment. Pokerbob used to one of the most active 2+2ers when it came to posting hands just like you Nina. Also like you, Pokerbob's hands usually involved very close/debatable situations.

IMO you and pokerbob are both outstanding hand posters.

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yeah

Re: weird donk
 

sweetjazz,

i understand that you want to discount all the 5x and pp hands because you don't know his tendencies and that's fine. but then you should discount any hand with a 4 for the exact same reason: lots of players would c/r it on the river instead of betting out.

i believe 5x and pp's should be discounted somewhat more than 4x (based on the river action) but not substantially so. meanwhile, there are very few 4x type hands in his range given the pf and flop action.

Re: weird donk
 

Sweetjazz,
Perhaps the problem is with the oriinal post, not with the replies. There just doesn't seem to be enough of a read to make a solid decision here and I would argue that people's defaults are likely guesses and not based on much either. I mean it is already very hard to model a fish's strategy when his pf stats are known--it becomes nearly impossible to come up with an accurate model when all you have are a few (somewhat subjective) observations

FWIW, my default is to raise/call, but my low W$SD indicates I call too much in these spots.