Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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DesertCat:

I believe you switched those - Cabrera's range is subpar and Rowand's range is great.

Before the Yankees sign another CF, I'd like for that Damon deal to expire/come off the books.

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Giambi and Pavano and Farnsworth come off the books next year.
Damon will be injured for 3/4 the season next year. Make the move now, take a small $$ hit, for a CF with Rowand out there.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example

sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

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Put together a list of catchers who will be better than Posada from 2008-2010. Off the top of my head, I can only think of four possibilities, and the Yankees have no chance of getting any of them for Cabrera and Matsui. Do you really give a [censored] if the Yankees give Posada $12M more than he's worth over the duration of his next contract?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example


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Do you have a catcher in mind? Someone who's defensive brilliance will make up for the lost offense?

2007 Catchers OPS
Posada .970
Martinez .879
Martin .843
Mauer .808
Varitek .787
McCann .772
Johjima .755
Zaun .752
Molina .731
Rodriquez .714
Pierzinski .712

Not that Posada will repeat his performance. But he's probably a decent bet to be over .800 next year. Maybe you keep Posada and find a catcher who can hit better than Molina to let Posada take more days off? And DH Posada more.

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sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

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Name Career OPS+ Range* Paycheck
Rowand 106 Subpar $4.3M
Cabrera 95 Great $0.4M

*(2007 RF9 CF)

So you think giving a 5 year $55M deal to Rowand and dumping Melky is going to improve the team? Is it because 23 year olds never improve and 30 year olds never decline?

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Desert..I assume online and others aren't looking at signing Rowand as replacing Melky...they want to replace Damon/Matsui. But that only makes sense if your rid the team of the cancer that is Giambi.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DesertCat:

I believe you switched those - Cabrera's range is subpar and Rowand's range is great.

Before the Yankees sign another CF, I'd like for that Damon deal to expire/come off the books.

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Giambi and Pavano and Farnsworth come off the books next year.
Damon will be injured for 3/4 the season next year. Make the move now, take a small $$ hit, for a CF with Rowand out there.

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Rowand is going to decline - perhaps a lot.

The Yankees have a perfectly viable CF in Cabrera - he is a bad corner outfielder.

The Yanks might be able to get rid of one of Damon or Giambi, but not both. I don't think anyone will take on Giambi after this past season, and not many teams are looking for a light-hitting corner outfielder with no arm like Damon.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

White Sox will trade A.J. Pierzynski for Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui. Ship it please.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

anyone think the rangers will trade salty? or maybe the yankee minor league system can fix chris iannetta better than the rockies system?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
DesertCat:

I believe you switched those - Cabrera's range is subpar and Rowand's range is great.


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I don't have access to any advanced defensive metrics so I used baseball ref's RF9 field. Rowand's RF9 for 2007 was 2.64 vs a league ave of 2.71. Melky's RF9 for centerfield was 3.02. I understand how rough these numbers are, advanced metrics may paint a totally different picture.

But that won't totally change my point. Melky is probably only a bit below league average in CF hitting. If his defense is decent, is it worth spending $11M per year more on Rowand? Rowand is likely to get worse, while Melky could still get better. They went down this path putting a ton of money into Damon and now they are stuck with a guy who can't hit well enough to play anything but center, but who they apparently feel can no longer play center.

Of course if Melky's defense is on par with Damons, you might as well play Damon for the extra offense.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

This thread makes my head hurt

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Of course if Melky's defense is on par with Damons, you might as well play Damon for the extra offense.

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melky's defense >>>> damon's defense for sure

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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NEW YORK (AP) - Mariano Rivera isn't happy that Joe Torre might be out as manager of the New York Yankees and said the team's decision will be factored into whether he returns.

"I don't feel good about it," Rivera said Wednesday, two days after the Yankees were eliminated from the playoffs. "I don't see why they're even thinking (about letting Torre go). I wish he's back, definitely. If you ask me what I would want, I want him back."

Rivera's contract also is expiring and he is eligible to become a free agent. He said whether Torre returns will help determine whether he remains with the Yankees.

"It might do a lot of it," he said. "I mean, I've been with Joe for so many years, and the kind of person he has been for me and for my teammates. It's been great. The thing is that I don't see why they have to put him in this position."

Rivera, who turns 38 next month, plans to speak with Torre soon. The pitcher, regarded by many as baseball's greatest closer, wanted to negotiate an extension during spring training, but the Yankees decided to delay talks until after the season. He made $10.5 million.

"I'm going to be open to hear all offers," said Rivera, who wants a multiyear contract. "The Yankees had the opportunity but didn't do nothing with it."

Asked if the Yankees would be his first choice regardless of the decision on Torre, he responded: "Right now, I can't tell you that."

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Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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NEW YORK (AP) - Mariano Rivera isn't happy that Joe Torre might be out as manager of the New York Yankees and said the team's decision will be factored into whether he returns.

"I don't feel good about it," Rivera said Wednesday, two days after the Yankees were eliminated from the playoffs. "I don't see why they're even thinking (about letting Torre go). I wish he's back, definitely. If you ask me what I would want, I want him back."

Rivera's contract also is expiring and he is eligible to become a free agent. He said whether Torre returns will help determine whether he remains with the Yankees.

"It might do a lot of it," he said. "I mean, I've been with Joe for so many years, and the kind of person he has been for me and for my teammates. It's been great. The thing is that I don't see why they have to put him in this position."

Rivera, who turns 38 next month, plans to speak with Torre soon. The pitcher, regarded by many as baseball's greatest closer, wanted to negotiate an extension during spring training, but the Yankees decided to delay talks until after the season. He made $10.5 million.

"I'm going to be open to hear all offers," said Rivera, who wants a multiyear contract. "The Yankees had the opportunity but didn't do nothing with it."

Asked if the Yankees would be his first choice regardless of the decision on Torre, he responded: "Right now, I can't tell you that."

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Hmmm...who could we hire that is beloved by both the players on the team and yankee fans....and knows the team/players well

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Hmmm...who could we hire that is beloved by both the players on the team and yankee fans....and knows the team/players well


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Think the Yanks might sign Torre for one more in order to sign Mo, Posada, etc for more than one? Seems they have to st least consider it.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

The Yankees, essentially, need a solution at catcher for 4-5 years... if they believe Montero is the real deal. Posada can't really be good for more than 2 more years... what do you do then? Get someone to patch it up for another 2-3 years? What if Montero fizzles?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Can they buy out the rest of Giambi's contract? I feel like I heard that somewhere that they can buy him out for like 5 million, which is definitely worth it.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees, essentially, need a solution at catcher for 4-5 years... if they believe Montero is the real deal. Posada can't really be good for more than 2 more years... what do you do then? Get someone to patch it up for another 2-3 years? What if Montero fizzles?

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Yes. That's exactly what you do. Because there's no alternative - it's not like catchers are known for aging well, and who are the Yankees going to trade for? What kind of sense does that make to deal for a catcher when the best one in the league last year is available?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I just have a sinking feeling Posada might get a 4 year contract. I agree with signing him for 2 years... but no more than that.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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I just have a sinking feeling Posada might get a 4 year contract. I agree with signing him for 2 years... but no more than that.

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i'd bet 25-1 against that happening.

it's going to be at least 3. i'm hoping for 3 with a team option on the 4th.

again even if posada hits .230/.310/.430 - that puts him at about average for catchers.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit.

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OK. This is not taking into factor any of the players on the Red Sox or Tigers (or other teams), and their regression/progression.

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And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average.

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But he didn't. You can do this for any player, but it doesn't make much sense. Sure, Posada had a career year that he surely will never have again, but he still did have that year. If Giambi was healthy and played 140 games with a .900+ OPS like he did the previous two years, their offense would have been even better. If Magglio Ordonez hit like a normal RF, I'm pretty sure the Tigers' lineup would have been slightly diminished. It works both ways for every team.

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Posada is almost certain to decline substantially

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I'm presuming you are basing this on the normal catcher's regression with age. Posada cannot be characterized with the normal catcher due to the fact that he was a middle infielder his entire life until the age of 23-24. Torre has also done a good job throughout the years giving Posada considerable rest. As I said before, most likely he won't put up near the stats he did this year, but take into account that the wear and tear on his body is substantially less than the typical catcher.

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Other aging risks include Abreu, Matsui, Damon, & Jeter, so the offense has the potential to fall off a cliff

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OK. Since you used Boston I will as well. Red Sox aging risks include Manny, Ortiz, Lowell (if he returns), Varitek (even more), and JD Drew.

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Matsui. He's always been above average, was still above average in 07, but he's getting old and you can't expect more than average.

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The Tigers were your other example used. Magglio Ordonez, as I stated before, had an unreal year just like Posada. Sheffield is ancient. Polanco and Guillen are both getting old as well.

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Giambi. In 07 he was below average hitter for 1B and a lousy defender. He might actually have been an average full time DH given the dregs that usually get trotted out there in the AL. He could easily rebound to be above average again or fall off a cliff.

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I said this previously, but I'll say it again.

2005 - 139 G .440 OBP .535 SLG
2006 - 139 G .413 OBP .558 SLG

As you said, he could rebound to above average again, or he could not. He is also getting pretty old (37 next year), but to automatically characterize him as a below average hitter IF healthy is not right.

Thank you for taking the time to provide the stats for all these guys, but I think in order to have a great idea of how their lineup will stack up against others, this type of data should be compiled for the other teams as well. Unfortunately, I do not have the subscriptions to do this.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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[ QUOTE ]
to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example

sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

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why would anyone do that?

seriously. matsui is a terrible fielder and an average DH - who wants him? and cabrera is a league average CF and below average corner outfielder.

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Not to mention Matsui has a full no-trade clause.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
DesertCat:

I believe you switched those - Cabrera's range is subpar and Rowand's range is great.

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What are you basing that on? I don't know a heck of a lot about defensive metrics, but what I've seen seems to indicate that Melky is good or very good.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Can they buy out the rest of Giambi's contract? I feel like I heard that somewhere that they can buy him out for like 5 million, which is definitely worth it.

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There's a $22M club option with a $5M buyout for 2009. He gets $21M this year, so he essentially has a 1-year, $26M contract. And a full no-trade clause. No way he's going anywhere.

Arn Tellum really got the best of the Yankees on that one.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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I just have a sinking feeling Posada might get a 4 year contract. I agree with signing him for 2 years... but no more than that.

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There's no way they find anyone better than Posada in the short term, and they'll be able carry him offensively in a couple of years. By then they'll find a slugging corner outfielder (or two) and first baseman.

Plus, I'm not convinced Posada will be a terrible offensive catcher in three or four years. Even if he loses some power he's still going to get on base more than most catchers.

Resign him!

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Around the Horn: "More Valuable: A-Rod or Torre?"

Tim Cowlishaw (paraphrased): Torre has won more than any other manager the past 7 years. You have to ask yourself when talking about a manager, does he put his team in a position to win? does he handle his pitching staff well? yes he is great at both of those...

Why do I waste my time watching these damn shows?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit.

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OK. This is not taking into factor any of the players on the Red Sox or Tigers (or other teams), and their regression/progression.
...

And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average.

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But he didn't. You can do this for any player, but it doesn't make much sense.

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It does make sense if you are responding to someone who thinks the Yankees don't need Posada or A-Rod to field a top offense.


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Posada is almost certain to decline substantially

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I'm presuming you are basing this on the normal catcher's regression with age.

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Nope, I'm basing it on the fact that Posada has a career OPS+ of 126, which includes the boost it got from last years 170. 36 year olds coming off by far their career best years aren't likely to come close to that again. Esp. if they are catchers. Torre was the manager when Posada put up a 127 OPS+ at age 34, and when he put up a 105 at age 33.

As far as aging risks, you also have to consider that other teams have young talent that's going to improve. Boston and Detroit may decline along with the Yanks, but that likely means other teams will rise up to take their place.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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does he handle his pitching staff well? yes he is great at both of those...

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Hahahahahaha

Here's my question: Do we have any reason to believe Don Mattingly will be good at any of the things Torre was bad at? Afterall, his only experience coaching is sitting next to Torre, and Mattingly seems to love the guy.

Does anyone know much about Girardi's style? I've never watched a Marlins game, so I have no idea.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Hoyasaxa: I will set the O/U on Giambi's slugging percentage (minimum 40 games, 140 PAs) at .490 and take the UNDER. Expecting a guy who can't stay healthy as a DH to rebound from a poor season at 36 is rather unlikely. He's finished.

DesertCat is not taking into account the other lineups' rises and falls - he's not getting paid to do these analyses. Should he compare it to every other lineup in the league? More players in the lineup should regress than progress - that simple enough?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Around the Horn: "More Valuable: A-Rod or Torre?"

Tim Cowlishaw (paraphrased): Torre has won more than any other manager the past 7 years. You have to ask yourself when talking about a manager, does he put his team in a position to win? does he handle his pitching staff well? yes he is great at both of those...

Why do I waste my time watching these damn shows?

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Wow. Stick to the NHL Tim. I know I watch it to hear ridiculous things like that, but the closer it gets to a Skip Bayless comment from random silly musing, the less likely I am to watch.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Triumph,

I said it wasn't fair to categorize him as a below average hitter "IF healthy".

40 games and 140 plate appearances is not healthy.

Also, for you to ascertain that he is finished is wrong.

His 2004 season almost mirrors his 2007 season (OPS was worse in basically the same number of at bats), yet at the age of 34 (HE'S IN HIS 30's OMGGG HE'S DONE!) he still rebounded to finish 5th in OPS in 2005 and 6th in OPS in 2006.

Is it likely he comes back again and provides numbers close to those? No.

Is it correct to proclaim he's as good as done? No.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

hoya -

Giambi has had a strange career - and he has bounced back from one nightmare season already. However, for you to think he will be healthy next year is almost laughable. He won't be. The guy can barely DH - he will be dinged up from now until the end of his career. Again, I'll set the line where I set it and take the under all day. I'll even move it to .485.

Maybe I should raise it to 80 games/300 PAs?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Desert Cat,

Posada will most definately decline this coming year, but he would still be a great option...

the problem starts coming into play when he wants a 4th season... he'll become such a black hole

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

on another note... when does jeter stop playing SS... I can only imagine how bad he'll be in a couple years

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

You know if you guys don't want Posada, the Mets will certainly be happy to take him.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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You know if you guys don't want Posada, the Mets will certainly be happy to take him.

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dude hes gonna be 36, has played C for his entire career, is coming of a monster season in NY....believe me you don't want him on your team with what he will get paid.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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You know if you guys don't want Posada, the Mets will certainly be happy to take him.

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dude hes gonna be 36, has played C for his entire career, is coming of a monster season in NY....believe me you don't want him on your team with what he will get paid.

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THANK YOU!!!!! if you could give him a reasonable 3 year deal that'd be great... but I wouldn't be suprised if he got a monster 4 year deal... it's just not worth it... trade melky if you have to... get a catcher, there has to be a way... also what's the minumum amount of years the yankees could offer Rowand... would he sign a lucrative 4 year deal... cus that'd be sick

edit- plus i think his 36th birthday was this past august

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

f rowand, melky is a lot! more valuable than people realize. trading him to 'make room' for somebody else is silly.

also even 3 years for posada is too much IMO., but if any team can pay for one 1.5 valuable years over 3-4 its the NYY.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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You know if you guys don't want Posada, the Mets will certainly be happy to take him.

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dude hes gonna be 36, has played C for his entire career, is coming of a monster season in NY....believe me you don't want him on your team with what he will get paid.

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You only make me want him more now. Its the best option at this point

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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You know if you guys don't want Posada, the Mets will certainly be happy to take him.

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dude hes gonna be 36, has played C for his entire career, is coming of a monster season in NY....believe me you don't want him on your team with what he will get paid.

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THANK YOU!!!!! if you could give him a reasonable 3 year deal that'd be great... but I wouldn't be suprised if he got a monster 4 year deal... it's just not worth it... trade melky if you have to... get a catcher, there has to be a way... also what's the minumum amount of years the yankees could offer Rowand... would he sign a lucrative 4 year deal... cus that'd be sick

edit- plus i think his 36th birthday was this past august

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you might be the most negative poster i've ever seen. YOU are the black hole. i understand realism but jesus christ.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

unfortunately the lacking FA market shows that the yankees will NEED to resign those who just about ready to leave, posada and rivera. and that means they need to get a mgr thay like, and do it FAST. easiest is to reach a 1-yr deal with torre. harder (as it takes more time) is to reach out to girardi. donnie would be interesting, but he's a wildcard. depends if mo and jorge would stay for him.

i'd like a change at the helm, but steinbrenner really made it a touchy situation by mouthing off. next year's mgr has to be decided on by next week.

since giambi is gone after next season, you could say posada could become the DH/backup C after two years. I don't mind that, although the yankees seem to be full of future DH's nowadays. who knows, maybe a FT C will become available sometime in the next 18 months, who will provide the bridge until the next prospect graduates to ML.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Why are people so obsessed with catchers offensive outputs? Do you realize Posada is probably the worst in the league at the a huge part of the job -- giving pitchers confidence to throw all of their pitches in big spots.

This aspect magnifies even more in close playoff games, which are dominated by pitchers b.c. top pitchers control games much more than top hitters (i.e. Arod, who mainly feed their sick stats off 5.00+ ERA guys, who unfortunately for Arod appear in the playoffs quite rarely).

And its not like the Yankees need Posada's bat / can't afford to bat a scrub hitting catcher in every game.

If Pudge were avail and I had Yankees payroll, I'd offer him 35-40mil for 2 yrs, or 20 for 1. One of the very very few spots in free agency where paying a huge yearly salary is actually ok.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

APXG:

whose gimmick account are you? You can be honest - the secret's out now.