Re: UFC 76
 

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Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine.

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That's not a bad notion. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to gauge before they fight a lot of the time. You could go by weight for the heavyweights, but who would have thunk Couture, giving up x pounds, would manhandle Gonzaga in what basically looked like a strength-based competition.

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Its a little weaker I think, betting the bigger man, for the heavyweights. I think strength plays less of a role in a fight when both men are basically super big and strong. I always think of the Monson v. Silvia fight where a strong wrestler did poorly. However, Randy did use his strength advantage when he was a big dog vs. Silvia (who needs steroids to be strong, but a weak giant still quite strong)

I agree, as soon as they get in the ring, you can always see who is bigger, but by then its too late. GSP v Kos, GSP, I know he wasn't a dog but my point is he was much the bigger man when they had the staredown, it was pretty obvious that Kos was going to have trouble. Fitch vs. Sanchez, on the other hand, was probably an easier call. Sanchez (Kos and Fitch) and the Count (Hammer) will always have trouble IMO vs world class wrestlers.

But if the dog is weaker, especially below heavyweight, you get Hughes vs. Gracie blowouts.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, ....

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about 1 year ago you could have said the exact opposite.

Re: UFC 76
 

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

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lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct?

One of my main points that was bashed

"MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better."

People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights.

Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up"

I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning.

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Dude, people who were picking forrest are way overrating their picks. The only way you pick forrest is if you know Shogun isnt in his normal condition.

He gassed, in the UFC, u lose if u gas.

No way he ever beats shogun again and this might be the best thing to ever happen to shogun.

He wont ever come in the octagon again out of shape and unprepared for a hard 3 rounds.

SEE - GSP vs Serra, sometimes these YOUNG great 25 year olds need these hard learned lessons to progress.

Re: UFC 76
 

And for the Card as a whole

I just think this proves that what makes the UFC GREAT is its unpredictability.

A title fight will always be exciting in the sense that who knows who is gonna win.

Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon.

Sad to see my fav fighter in shogun lose but this fight was not about Forrest winnings, it was Shogun losing.

He was Gassed, after the first round, actually towards the end of the first round, I was like [censored], how is he gonna make it 3 rounds.

Hes got nothing in the tank, whether it was nerves combined with uncoditioning.

Or he didnt train, remember he just got married and hasnt fought since feb.

Anyways, I just hope Shogun sticks with UFC like i am sure he will.

He will be the greatest fighter in the history of MMA when its all said and done.

What this fight paves the way for is now everybody he faces will be going against a conditioned shogun.

GL vs that shogun.

I would equate this to Shogun was preparing for a preseason game, and forrest a regular season game in the NFL.

oh wellz, live and learn.

Good thing hes got wins over EVERYBODY in pride........
to make us forget this ever happened once he shows himself and does his thing.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon.

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wow. i was dumbfounded when i heard it was a split decision. no way can you give diego two rounds of that fight.

also i overvalued tavares's performance vs. black and undervalued griffin's performance vs. guida. betting tyson was clearly right there.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Sad to see my fav fighter in shogun lose but this fight was not about Forrest winnings, it was Shogun losing.

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I'm so sick of people saying this. If shogun just gassed, how did forrest outbox him, have a better clinch, do more damage from GnP, have more dominant positions, and have more effective leg kicks IN THE FIRST ROUND? Because Forrest won the first round super easy, and gassing had nothing to do with it.

Shogun would have gotten beat badly even if he didn't gas. Making excuses for Shogun, for Cro Cop, for whoever is just dumb. It's one of the reasons i lost some respect for GSP, who after Serra beat him, said all of the sudden he wasnt 100% in that fight. Just admit defeat. Sometimes good fighters lose to a guy who just beat the crap out of them.

Give props to the fighter who wins, don't fantisize that "if shogun wasnt getting married and didnt gas and trained properly duh he would win".

Re: UFC 76
 

u obv are some couch potato who cant compare being pysically fit and conditioned to just be physically fit and unconditioned.

Props to forrest but if the Bills beat the Pats this week, im not gonna say bills are the better team.

Im not worried at all and this loss doesnt really affect me. I know why he lost, i know how hes gonna learn from this. Better for his long term ufc career.

He basically just got humiliated, worst performance of his career, wasnt conditioned , didnt even have enough energy to perform his lifelong craft.

Best thing that ever happened to him, and yes it was because he was like 25% that he lost and obv the guy whos gonna fight the best in the world will be 110%

it aint easy being on top and not having that fire.

How hes gonna make sure he always lights the candle before each fight.

U HAD ZERO legit basis for picking shogun.

u just got lucky.

I dont equate this to crocop at all. and hes my second fav fighter.

I do equate it to GSP vs Serra
peace

Re: UFC 76
 

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u obv are some couch potato who cant compare being pysically fit and conditioned to just be physically fit and unconditioned.

Props to forrest but if the Bills beat the Pats this week, im not gonna say bills are the better team.

Im not worried at all and this loss doesnt really affect me. I know why he lost, i know how hes gonna learn from this. Better for his long term ufc career.

He basically just got humiliated, worst performance of his career, wasnt conditioned , didnt even have enough energy to perform his lifelong craft.

Best thing that ever happened to him, and yes it was because he was like 25% that he lost and obv the guy whos gonna fight the best in the world will be 110%

it aint easy being on top and not having that fire.

How hes gonna make sure he always lights the candle before each fight.

U HAD ZERO legit basis for picking shogun.

u just got lucky.

I dont equate this to crocop at all. and hes my second fav fighter.

I do equate it to GSP vs Serra
peace

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Amen, I'm pretty sure DannyOcean said he blocked me so he can't read my posts and I'm 100% happy about that. He's convinced he had the proper reasoning for picking Kongo and Forrest, and while I agree with his Kongo bet in 20/20 hindsight, I feel forrest @ +300 is still marginal value at best and not a goldmine.

Shogun came into that fight looking like absolute trash...absolute trash. Forrest came out looking like the best Forrest ever, and he did what he said. He used Shogun's moves on shoguns, ie the omaplata and the takedown. But that doesn't mean his reasons for picking forrest were sound. It is of course true MMA isn't a science and that's why we go over possible scenario's and outcomes and try to loosely put %'s on them and come up with an overall feel. DO's reasoning was one based on variance...well you have to account for the variance or else you are just betting to get lucky. Sure we can't do statistical analysis like in baseball and account for misconceptions (IE, lucky hits, unlucky batters which is really already accounted for in the %'s) Also, how often is Crocop going to break his rib in the first round? How often is he going to get kneed in the nuts twice? How often is forrest going to come in such great shape? How often is shogun going to come in such horrible shape? It doesn't matter who shows up to fight, it matters what the likelihood of them showing up like that is. That's the bottomline when you're betting.


And this "give credit to the man who won" BS. The logical fallacy is so obvious. Anyone who doesn't give credit to Forrest for the win is INSANE. Forrest came out like a monster and earned the greatest win of his career. That is so obvious. But the person who gives credit to himself for getting lucky is just as insane.

Re: UFC 76
 

I still think my Tavares bet was +EV. Anyone else think he won that fight?

Re: UFC 76
 

I didn't hear it, but I read that Rogan made an interesting point about certain Pride fighters. He mentioned that it seemed like a lot of Pride guys fight at a more natural weight, while most everyone in the UFC is cutting a bunch. For instance, I think Randy said before his fight with Gonzaga that Forrest was walking around at something like 240 at the time.

The big 3 Pride HWs are all relatively small HWs who could all conceivably fight at 205. Big Nog's twin fights there and Fedor has a lot of water weight he could lose. Cro Cop would be tougher because his body looks pretty cut, but it's not out of the question for him to shed a bit of muscle.

It's an interesting theory, though Rogan has been going a bit nuts about cutting weight recently.

Re: UFC 76
 

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I still think my Tavares bet was +EV. Anyone else think he won that fight?

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i thought tyson won the first round and tavares won the second round. the third round was very even to me with the takedowns and various sub attempts, and i've only watched the fight once. i knew it was going to tyson griffin after the third round, though. awesome fight though. i can't wait to see tavares with a few more fights under his belt. i think he has more potential than tyson.

Re: UFC 76
 

Let me try to explain why I think strength is so important for smaller guys than bigger guys in MMA, maybe I am wrong here, maybe its common knowledge, I don't have a clue.

Take 2 fighters, Couture and Sherk, both very strong physically. Tell them to train for the say the NFL combine strength test of 225 bench for reps. Let say Couture cranks out 35, Sherk does 31 or something to that effect, sounds about right.

In the ring, Randy's opponent is going to weigh 225 or more usually. Sherk's will be 160 or so on fight night. You see where I am going here? Their strength is not that much different, a little man can get damn strong, not quite as strong as the bigger man, but close. It is basically impossible for a smaller guy to maintain position on a guy like Sherk, he just doesn't weigh enough. However, no matter how strong a heavyweight you are, if a good powerful wrestler who weighs 250 mounts you in the 3rd round of a fight, its big trouble.

Re: UFC 76
 

- Forrest dominates Shogun yet lost to a lame, injured Tito and is KTFO'd by Jardine

- Shogun destroyed the current UFC LHW champ and beats Rog and Arona but gets schooled by Forrest

- Jardine gets KTFO by Alexander but beats Chuck

- Randy gets KTFO twice by LHW Chuck but beats Sylvia and the guy who destroyed CC

- CC destroyed Wand who destroyed Rampage twice who now destroyed Chuck twice, where Chuck also destroyed Randy twice who just took Gonzaga to school but we also now Gonzaga just ran over CC

- Rampage gets run over twice by Wand and once by Shogun, struggles past Lindland (MW), Yoon (noob) and Ninja but comes to destroy the longtime dominant UFC LHW champ with one punch in a fight that goes like 2 minutes

- Anderson Silva gets tapped by B fighter Takase, not only gets tapped to Chonan but has much of the fight to stand with Chonan and does not establish a clear upper hand but earns the UFC MW title in like a combined 5 minutes

Anderson also struggles somewhat to finish Lee Murray but takes Rich Franklin's belt like a kid

- Chonan, who stood toe to toe with Anderson gets KTFO in seconds by Baroni and Hendo

- Hendo gets outfoxed by Misaki

- Misaki gets beat at MW by longtime WW Frank Trigg who lost 4 recent fights at WW

- Hendo goes the distance with Rampage in a very tough, competite fight even though he just destroyed Wand who destoyed Rampage twice

- Nakamura struggles and barely takes down Machida but tosses Randleman on his ass twice with picture perfect tds

- Trigg destoyed Charuto and Hallman, 2 guys who either arguably beat Hughes or beat Hughes twice but Hughes of course owned Trigg twice

- CC has his way with big guys like Barnett twice and Aleks E but struggles and loses to Check Kongo and gets ran over by GG

- Bustamente takes Ramapage down where Randleman failed

- Dave Menne gets KTFO by Baroni in seconds though Menne has stood against and beat Pele

- Gomi get choked out in minutes by Aurelio who gets dominated by Ishida who gets destroyed by Gomi

-Nick Diaz has trouble hanging with the best in the UFC and schools Gomi.

............soooooo, what does this all mean for the UFC vs. Pride arguement, really?



Anyone want to argue with me about MMA variance again? Igetbadbeat, i took you off ignore. it was more annoying not seeing what you posted for whatever reason. But yeah, feel free to criticize my whole point that MMA variance is way higher anyone thinks. That's not really even a complete list btw. I don't think with two quality guys you can ever say that you are sure -350 is a good bet. maybe when cans are involved, but buyer beware. When you think you know exactly who will win, you get bitten.

But then, my theory would require that everyone not know everything all the time. I think part of the reason people don't like the whole "appeal to variance" idea on ridiculous lines is that it shows we really don't know as much as we think we do.

Which we don't.

Re: UFC 76
 

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I don't think with two quality guys you can ever say that you are sure -350 is a good bet. maybe when cans are involved, but buyer beware. When you think you know exactly who will win, you get bitten.


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I see your point, although I'm not sure that I agree. What do you estimate the 'true' line for Forrest vs Shogun was, at which price would you not have seen any value in betting Forrest?

Re: UFC 76
 

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Anyone want to argue with me about MMA variance again?

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While the rest of your argument may or may not be valid, this is not variance. You are talking about style matchups and people's development as fighters and game-planning.

Re: UFC 76
 

I think this is an excellent point. Also explains why Randy Couture has been so successful in his picks recently, having seen a lot of these guys train, and trained with them.

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dominated is a bit of a stretch, i think shogun was winning the first half of the fight, but from the mid 2nd round on shogun basically demonstrated the definition of the term "gassed," he pretty much looked like he was moving in slow motion

i don't think there is any doubt in anyone's mind that forrest trained harder and wanted this win more than his opponent

one of my first thoughts after this fight was wondering just how much value there is in seeing fighters train firsthand, i couldn't help thinking about how confident performify was in houston alexander after seeing him in person before his last fight and comparing that to the rumors that shogun appeared out of shape coming in to this fight

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Re: UFC 76
 

I think that until the judging criteria is clarified, it will be very difficult to make accurate assessments for betting purposes in fights like these two. When fighters are evenly matched, and there is a very good chance it will go to a decision with the majority of the fight spent on the ground and in transitions, its impossible to know what/how the judges will score. Right now it looks like the judges are favoring wrestling/dominant position over trying to finish the fight with subs. Since its so subjective, and there is no consistency, I have a hard time betting on these kind of fights.

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Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon.

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wow. i was dumbfounded when i heard it was a split decision. no way can you give diego two rounds of that fight.

also i overvalued tavares's performance vs. black and undervalued griffin's performance vs. guida. betting tyson was clearly right there.

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Re: UFC 76
 

DO,

1. Just gonna rip off bigalt here: "While the rest of your argument may or may not be valid, this is not variance. You are talking about style matchups and people's development as fighters and game-planning."

2. Why don't you go through the past 5 years and post all the times the favorite won?

3. Of course there's going to be variance, and the amount of variance has increased as the talent gap has started closing, but what does that have to do with finding value in a line? It seems like you're trying to say, "there's a lot of variance in MMA, so bet the underdog," which isn't a logical statement.

Re: UFC 76
 

re: Fitch/Sanchez, Griffin/Tavares, and judging

It'll never happen, but I wish the athletic commissions would allow judges to pick winners based on the overall fight. The ten point must system isn't that bad in terms of intuitiveness and simplicity, but it's awful if a guy dominates one round and does a lot of damage but loses on points in the other two rounds.

Also, every fight on the main card of a PPV should go 5 rounds.

Re: UFC 76
 

i'm not sure whether this is the right thread to post this but why doesn't mma use a ten point must system for striking and adcc like point system for grappling? although it would have to be modified to go with mma and then would have to be weighted in with the striking score. but would this system be to complex?

Re: UFC 76
 

nearlyalex,

The judges have a hard enough time using a pretty simple ten-point must system (see: Rosales on Saturday, three awful scorings), why make it more complicated?

Re: UFC 76
 

I think the main problem is that the judges are chosen the same way boxing judges are chosen, they're only criteria for getting the job is that they are connected to the athletic commission in some way. Until the AC's hire and train professional MMA judges, I doubt anything will change.

Imagine using hockey refs for a soccer match, cause the sports are sorta similar, in that they both have goals.

Re: UFC 76
 

This is one thing that annoys me about all fighting sports. Some judges don't score rounds correctly and then give reasoning like, "It'd be too big of a hole to get out of... WTF?"

Re: UFC 76
 

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- Forrest dominates Shogun yet lost to a lame, injured Tito and is KTFO'd by Jardine

- Shogun destroyed the current UFC LHW champ and beats Rog and Arona but gets schooled by Forrest

- Jardine gets KTFO by Alexander but beats Chuck

- Randy gets KTFO twice by LHW Chuck but beats Sylvia and the guy who destroyed CC

- CC destroyed Wand who destroyed Rampage twice who now destroyed Chuck twice, where Chuck also destroyed Randy twice who just took Gonzaga to school but we also now Gonzaga just ran over CC

- Rampage gets run over twice by Wand and once by Shogun, struggles past Lindland (MW), Yoon (noob) and Ninja but comes to destroy the longtime dominant UFC LHW champ with one punch in a fight that goes like 2 minutes

- Anderson Silva gets tapped by B fighter Takase, not only gets tapped to Chonan but has much of the fight to stand with Chonan and does not establish a clear upper hand but earns the UFC MW title in like a combined 5 minutes

Anderson also struggles somewhat to finish Lee Murray but takes Rich Franklin's belt like a kid

- Chonan, who stood toe to toe with Anderson gets KTFO in seconds by Baroni and Hendo

- Hendo gets outfoxed by Misaki

- Misaki gets beat at MW by longtime WW Frank Trigg who lost 4 recent fights at WW

- Hendo goes the distance with Rampage in a very tough, competite fight even though he just destroyed Wand who destoyed Rampage twice

- Nakamura struggles and barely takes down Machida but tosses Randleman on his ass twice with picture perfect tds

- Trigg destoyed Charuto and Hallman, 2 guys who either arguably beat Hughes or beat Hughes twice but Hughes of course owned Trigg twice

- CC has his way with big guys like Barnett twice and Aleks E but struggles and loses to Check Kongo and gets ran over by GG

- Bustamente takes Ramapage down where Randleman failed

- Dave Menne gets KTFO by Baroni in seconds though Menne has stood against and beat Pele

- Gomi get choked out in minutes by Aurelio who gets dominated by Ishida who gets destroyed by Gomi

-Nick Diaz has trouble hanging with the best in the UFC and schools Gomi.

............soooooo, what does this all mean for the UFC vs. Pride arguement, really?



Anyone want to argue with me about MMA variance again? Igetbadbeat, i took you off ignore. it was more annoying not seeing what you posted for whatever reason. But yeah, feel free to criticize my whole point that MMA variance is way higher anyone thinks. That's not really even a complete list btw. I don't think with two quality guys you can ever say that you are sure -350 is a good bet. maybe when cans are involved, but buyer beware. When you think you know exactly who will win, you get bitten.

But then, my theory would require that everyone not know everything all the time. I think part of the reason people don't like the whole "appeal to variance" idea on ridiculous lines is that it shows we really don't know as much as we think we do.

Which we don't.

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There are reasons for every example you cited, these reasons are clearer in hindight but even in hindsight many people dont' seem to get that the fight was not a deterministic event. What happened is not neccessarily indicative of what could have happened and what was likely to happen.


Styles make fights, that's something people don't get. DO, I hope you don't feel like I'm out to get you because I"m not. A lot of the times when I read trixtrix or Mikey's posts I go "A %$*#&in Men", where as when I read yours I generally scratch my head. But when i scratch my head I come up with stuff that has helped me a lot, so it's more that I enjoy arguing with you for my own monetary benefit.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

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not betting on a +EV event is like "costing yourself money?" that's what you're trying to say right?

I'd agree with that.

So what, I'll pay to enjoy the event as opposed to "make money" on the event.

Not agreeing with my reason is understandable....not getting what I'm trying to say is LOL @ U!

Dude, seriously $500 isn't going to change my life one bit, I've dropped 4 times that for a good time (strip club ldo) And betting against Chuck would of made me have an unfun night.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

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not betting on a +EV event is like "costing yourself money?" that's what you're trying to say right?

I'd agree with that.

So what, I'll pay to enjoy the event as opposed to "make money" on the event.

Not agreeing with my reason is understandable....not getting what I'm trying to say is LOL @ U!

Dude, seriously $500 isn't going to change my life one bit, I've dropped 4 times that for a good time (strip club ldo) And betting against Chuck would of made me have an unfun night.

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I feel you, no need to defend yourself. Anyone who doesn't understand you might be better off for their purposes anyway. I have made many no plays when I wanted to bet against a favorite fighter of mine. We have to pay for some entertainment in our life whether it be a stripper or fights.