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-   -   Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=400289)

Balder Dash 05-11-2007 11:43 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says Full Tilt wants bots is talking out of their ass. It's so ignorant to make statements like:

[/ QUOTE ]

They're given a pile of convincing evidence that a group of players are bots, and they choose to do nothing. If they didn't want bots, they'd get rid of them.

I suppose it's possible they're really so insanely stupid that they can look at this evidence and make the post that started this thread, but I'm not willing to credit someone with such stupidity when they make a profit from it.

[ QUOTE ]
Get real.

[/ QUOTE ]

You first.

Our House 05-11-2007 11:46 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
So you honestly believe that the whole one month investigation and account freezing was just a facade?

NajdorfDefense 05-11-2007 11:47 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Serious post time:

Anyone who thinks that nlnut isn't using bots is either stupid, ignorant, or doesn't understand poker very well. It's obvious he's using a bot...or his team is using bots. Now, while I concede there may not be enough evidence to warrant seizure of funds, it certianly seems that at least closing their accounts and mailing them a check for the funds is at LEAST the very minimum that should be done.

How can someone seriously argue that those post flop stats are "based off of a secret strategy"...give me a break. Either Full Tilt doesn't care and just wants the rake money, or their fraud team is headed by a bunch of morons. (I highly doubt they'd risk everything by allowing bots, so I'm assuming that their security team is just retarded)

Step it up guys, this level of incompetence is highly unacceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this. These players should not longer be welcome at the site.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Anyone else getting the sense that FTP is Moe in the Flaming Moe's episode, and we're Homer, trying to yell "You just lost a customer!' at an increasingly uncaring and unhearing Moe?

SweetPea 05-11-2007 12:07 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
If the evidence was found to be inconclusive, why were the account not closed? If there is even a small chance the accounts could be bots at all the accounts should all be closed and the funds seized.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, mate. I'm sure you are upset by all this as most people are, but this sentence is ridiculously dumb.

pyedog 05-11-2007 12:14 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]

If these statements were true, why on earth would FT have run the one month investigation to begin with? To make it appear like they're trying (because they KNEW someone was going to make a 2+2 zoo post a month later and they wanted to cover themselves)??

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe that the big poker sites like to provide the illusion that they are implementing security measures to stop botting and collusion without actually doing much at all. It is all about making the customers feel secure and comfortable without having to actually spend the time, money and resources on doing the security work.

As for the one month "investigation" who knows what that actually entailed. Some poker sites take a week just to reply to a simple email. So they probably sent an initial stock email in the first week, spent two weeks pretending to investigate (consisting of maybe one hour of actual research) and then another week preparing the reply email.

I do acknowledge that detecting bots and collusion is a very difficult problem. I have no idea how I would go about doing it if I were them. But it seems pretty obvious to me that they are terrible at detecting suspicious behaviour if these accounts were never flagged previous to Trebek pointing them out. And even after that it still wasn't enough for them to find their behaviour suspicious after a full month investigation.

What do you guys think that FTP would have had to find before they could make a conclusive determination of bots? I'm not even sure how much more evidence there could be. Basically bots are indictable according to FTP. Maybe we should all just get into botting then. The chances of getting caught and punished are even lower than the chance that these accounts are not cheating.

Sniper 05-11-2007 12:19 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FTPSean, if you know anything about stats, I can show you tests proving (to the furthest extent I can) that there is no way these users cannot be bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can your stats differentiate between BOTs and Humans w/ Decision Support Software?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results I'm getting make it very unlikely humans had more than a tiny impact on the hands these users played (in other words bots played almost every single hand).


For example, let's say I test Ho: p1 = p2 vs. Ha: p1 != p2, and I want to compare vpip of 1forthethumb to full_tilting.

Using a two sample test for proportions, we get a test statistic of -.00005! This means it's pretty much impossible to reject Ho, that the vpip for the two players is the same. I think you will find similar results comparing pfr, betting, raising, cbets, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question...

Players using the same Decision Support Software Profile would be expected to have converging stats over a large enough sample size. How can the stats alone determine if a human or a bot was actually pushing the buttons?

neverforgetlol 05-11-2007 12:32 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FTPSean, if you know anything about stats, I can show you tests proving (to the furthest extent I can) that there is no way these users cannot be bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can your stats differentiate between BOTs and Humans w/ Decision Support Software?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results I'm getting make it very unlikely humans had more than a tiny impact on the hands these users played (in other words bots played almost every single hand).


For example, let's say I test Ho: p1 = p2 vs. Ha: p1 != p2, and I want to compare vpip of 1forthethumb to full_tilting.

Using a two sample test for proportions, we get a test statistic of -.00005! This means it's pretty much impossible to reject Ho, that the vpip for the two players is the same. I think you will find similar results comparing pfr, betting, raising, cbets, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question...

Players using the same Decision Support Software Profile would be expected to have converging stats over a large enough sample size. How can the stats alone determine if a human or a bot was actually pushing the buttons?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's more of a practical concern, I find it unlikely they all sat in a room pressing the same buttons for every type of situation.

Vavavoom 05-11-2007 12:40 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Full Tilt Poker: Don't Learn, Sometimes Chat, and Play with My Bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP nlnut/nation et al ...

KurtSF 05-11-2007 12:43 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TRANSLATION: They sent us their utility bills and credit card information. There is no credit card fraud going on, so we no longer care.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha

I don't think these guys are bots and even I think thats exactly what happened on FullTilts end

[/ QUOTE ]

I do think these guys are bots and even I think that's exactly what happened on FillTilt's end.



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
• During the investigation we found the evidence to be inconclusive in supporting either determination (human or bot).

[/ QUOTE ]

So your investigating team could not reach a conclusion that multiple accounts playing 100K hands/month with the same stats from the same IP address were humans or bots yet they never asked the players for any more information to help them reach this conclusion (according to nlnut -except for maybe IDs and utility bills)? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its pretty clear they either didn't do their own statistical investigation/analysis, or that they completely failed to grasp the significance of the stats. Or both.



[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who says Full Tilt wants bots is talking out of their ass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actions speak louder than words. FTP, and other major poker sites, are acting in such a way as to conform to this ideal (tolerate bots for profits) even if their words say otherwise.


Edited to add:

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="green">

If I may make one request, it's the following: you (at FTP) have access to every single HH played on your site. The most damning piece of evidence in this thread was the similarity of the many "sweatshopper's" stats which, although they may not be out-and-out bots, clearly (to EVERYONE) indicated some type of automation. Throughout the 1,000+ posts in the other thread, that was the one piece of evidence that no one -- and i mean NO ONE, not even NLnut's supporters -- could explain satisfactorily. We even had stat geeks post their detailed calculations showing how incredibly improbable attaining such uniformity, ESPECIALLY in post-flop actions, would be. I, for one, would be very grateful if you could tell me whether, looking at the unlimited HHs that you have access to and talking it over with the stat geeks on your end, could confirm for us -- and give reasons how -- individual players could possibly achieve that kind of uniformity. You don't have to give us any 'evidence' from THIS case in particular...I just want you, given your access to millions upon millions of HHs, to help this forum understand how those post-flop statistics could come about without some kind of automation. I think this is a fair and reasonable request, and one eminently within your powers.
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Sniper 05-11-2007 12:45 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FTPSean, if you know anything about stats, I can show you tests proving (to the furthest extent I can) that there is no way these users cannot be bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can your stats differentiate between BOTs and Humans w/ Decision Support Software?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results I'm getting make it very unlikely humans had more than a tiny impact on the hands these users played (in other words bots played almost every single hand).


For example, let's say I test Ho: p1 = p2 vs. Ha: p1 != p2, and I want to compare vpip of 1forthethumb to full_tilting.

Using a two sample test for proportions, we get a test statistic of -.00005! This means it's pretty much impossible to reject Ho, that the vpip for the two players is the same. I think you will find similar results comparing pfr, betting, raising, cbets, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question...

Players using the same Decision Support Software Profile would be expected to have converging stats over a large enough sample size. How can the stats alone determine if a human or a bot was actually pushing the buttons?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's more of a practical concern, I find it unlikely they all sat in a room pressing the same buttons for every type of situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if they are pressing the same buttons in the same situations, because the same decision support software profile (that seems to be allowed by the sites) tells them to push the same buttons?...

stompin 05-11-2007 12:51 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
Its clear poker sites need to change their policies on bots or they're in for a losing battle.

Proof beyond a reasonable doubt will never happen, assuming the human sweatshop defense is acceptable.

Lets be realistic about the human sweatshop though...Isn't it a lot easier and more likely that if such a system exist to produce near exact results over large samples, and this system seems to cover all streets of play (seemingly complex rulesset) that it is much easier and more practical to implement using a programs?

It would be an immense task to have humans learn a system and execute with such ungodly performance that you cant tell who is the teacher and who is the student. Has there been any evidence of ramp up time on any of the accounts to support that they were learning this new system?

I wouldn't see it an issue at all if human botting were banned as well...or any excessively systematic play that suggests a team environment, or excessive sw assistance. You dont have to take their money, but kindly let them know you arent interested in thier business show them the door tyvm.

The number or legitimate human botshops that would be inconvenienced would be negligible to the the number to bots operating under the guise of being a human botshop. Why? because a human botshop, while theoretically possible, is completely impracticable. I see no reason why anyone with a system so well defined would continue to try and have human botters when it is so much easier to code it - especially when they cant get caught either way. makes no sense.

If you want to avert the bot crisis that is surely imminent, you need to eliminate the cover provided by the human botshop. Ban all play that looks like an excessively systematic strip mining operation. no explanations other than we dont want your business. give them back their money and say good bye. if you can prove beyond a doubt they are bots, keep their money.

Even this will only slow them down as they get smart and disguise their behavior better.

If you are a legitimate player who thinks you will get tangled up by such a policy...I dunno...take a pee break once in a while, tilt like everyone else on the planet, take shots and lose 1/4 your roll in one night, switch from a 20/15 to a 40/30 after six beer. works for me.

pyedog 05-11-2007 12:54 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]

And if they are pressing the same buttons in the same situations, because the same decision support software profile (that seems to be allowed by the sites) tells them to push the same buttons?...

[/ QUOTE ]
Is anyone else surprised that support software telling players exactly what plays to make isn't banned by the big poker sites? I guess I'm naive but I thought that any software telling players explicitly what to do is against the rules.

Either way, I really think this software should be banned. It isn't quite as harmful as botting because at least real people are required to push the buttons. But it is still cheating and can help to facilitate these types of poker sweatshops.

dp13368 05-11-2007 12:59 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
I keep seeing comment about FTP allowing these guys to change their FTP screenames.

Where did this come from?

APerfect10 05-11-2007 01:05 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FTPSean, if you know anything about stats, I can show you tests proving (to the furthest extent I can) that there is no way these users cannot be bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can your stats differentiate between BOTs and Humans w/ Decision Support Software?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results I'm getting make it very unlikely humans had more than a tiny impact on the hands these users played (in other words bots played almost every single hand).


For example, let's say I test Ho: p1 = p2 vs. Ha: p1 != p2, and I want to compare vpip of 1forthethumb to full_tilting.

Using a two sample test for proportions, we get a test statistic of -.00005! This means it's pretty much impossible to reject Ho, that the vpip for the two players is the same. I think you will find similar results comparing pfr, betting, raising, cbets, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question...

Players using the same Decision Support Software Profile would be expected to have converging stats over a large enough sample size. How can the stats alone determine if a human or a bot was actually pushing the buttons?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's more of a practical concern, I find it unlikely they all sat in a room pressing the same buttons for every type of situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if they are pressing the same buttons in the same situations, because the same decision support software profile (that seems to be allowed by the sites) tells them to push the same buttons?...

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you honestly believe that a human could stick by some decision support software for 400K hands and not deviate from it at all? Doesn't seem like human nature to me. Even if they deviated from this software for only 1 or 2 hands per 100 it would create anomaly's in some of the high deviation stats...

While I understand your thinking, I dont think its logical or even possible.

KurtSF 05-11-2007 01:07 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
I keep seeing comment about FTP allowing these guys to change their FTP screenames.

Where did this come from?

[/ QUOTE ]

From the individual posters. Its been done before for extreme circumstances and this seems like an extreme circumstance, so the possibility is being discussed.

KurtSF 05-11-2007 01:08 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]

Do you honestly believe that a human could stick by some decision support software for 400K hands and not deviate from it at all? Doesn't seem like human nature to me. Even if they deviated from this software for only 1 or 2 hands per 100 it would create anomaly's in some of the high deviation stats...

While I understand your thinking, I dont think its logical or even possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if these are bots its known that they sometimes would be run under human "control". There is known noise in the system, and the numbers are STILL this close.

sirpupnyc 05-11-2007 01:18 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
As for the one month "investigation" who knows what that actually entailed. Some poker sites take a week just to reply to a simple email. So they probably sent an initial stock email in the first week, spent two weeks pretending to investigate (consisting of maybe one hour of actual research) and then another week preparing the reply email.

[/ QUOTE ]
Clearly it's time for FTPSean to post some evidence of the investigation...meeting transcripts, investigators' pay stubs, Starbucks and pizza receipts from late-night investigation sessions, photos of the investigation HQ (careful attention to ergonomics and reasonable clutter, please...2+2 has a good eye). Details of the secret bot-investigation system wouldn't hurt...clearly nobody here thinks your system is very good, so why would they want to steal it?

UATrewqaz 05-11-2007 01:26 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
There needs to be some sort of middle ground.

Obviously I don't want poker sites confiscating funds right and left over any little matter, as that would lead to horrible problems.

And obviously I don't want botters/scammers/cheaters running amok either.

Perhaps needing "proof beyond any doubt" is necessary for confiscation, however poker sites need to have penalities or recourses BESIDES this.

I think in this case something along the lines of "Ok, we've investigated you. We can't PROVE you are doing anything shady, but it's pretty clear you probably are, you can keep your funds but take your business elsewhere"

Or "You can keep playing here, but knock off the BS (4 accounts playing simultatneous from the same IP address"

scscoach 05-11-2007 01:38 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
I just withdrew all of my money and am moving to a safer site

B00T 05-11-2007 01:41 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Of course the results were inconclusive. Short of having a video of them cheating or using spyware to find a bot program on their computer (and from what I understand even this can be easily circumvented), there's no way you can have 100% conclusive proof that they were botting.

However, by examining the stats and the responses by the suspects themselves in this thread, it should be fairly obvious that these guys are a huge favorite to be playing in an unethical manner.

-The deviations between the stats show less variation than what a single player would show between various samples.

-At least one of the guys has lied more than once in the thread.

-They always play at the same time. Nobody ever takes a pee break, nobody plays from their home computer, etc. etc.

-They claim to constantly discuss hands, yet their game never changed nor improved during the course of the data set.

This isn't an American court. A reasonable doubt alone isn't enough to justify allowing these guys to continue to play on Full Tilt. As long as these guys are better than 50% to be cheating, Full Tilt has every reason to show them the door. Personally I make it at better than 90% they're cheating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best post in the thread.

Bellagibro 05-11-2007 01:46 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
I just withdrew all of my money and am moving to a safer site

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this soft stance by FTP for whatever reason is going to come back and bite them in the ass in the long run.

1p0kerboy 05-11-2007 01:48 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
There needs to be some sort of middle ground.

Obviously I don't want poker sites confiscating funds right and left over any little matter, as that would lead to horrible problems.

And obviously I don't want botters/scammers/cheaters running amok either.

Perhaps needing "proof beyond any doubt" is necessary for confiscation, however poker sites need to have penalities or recourses BESIDES this.

I think in this case something along the lines of "Ok, we've investigated you. We can't PROVE you are doing anything shady, but it's pretty clear you probably are, you can keep your funds but take your business elsewhere"

Or "You can keep playing here, but knock off the BS (4 accounts playing simultatneous from the same IP address"

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

It is unbeleivable that FTP is simply saying "can't prove it, carry on" about this whole mess. Wow.

Our House 05-11-2007 01:50 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
There needs to be some sort of middle ground.

[/ QUOTE ]
There already is. We're just too involved in the 2+2 lifestyle to realize it.

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I don't want poker sites confiscating funds right and left over any little matter, as that would lead to horrible problems.

[/ QUOTE ]
No reputable poker sites have done this yet. When we read about it happening, it's usually the most extreme examples.

[ QUOTE ]
And obviously I don't want botters/scammers/cheaters running amok either.

[/ QUOTE ]
No reputable poker sites have allowed this yet. When we read about it happening, it's usually the most extreme examples.

I guess you can see my point. Middle ground situations DO occur. They just aren't enough of a publicity attraction to be made public. It's been like that for a long time. I remember several instances where Party conducted investigations and closed accounts of cheaters that were local to my area (New York/New Jersey). The only reason I know about them is because of the live game circle I was in. One of my casual player friends even had his account temporarily closed because he happened to be at the wrong tables at the wrong times; and he played so badly that Party thought he had to be part of this cheating ring. His account was reopened, but the other actual colluders never saw their accounts or their money again.

There is no 2+2 assistance in many of these "quiet" cases and they're NOT generally made public. I'm sure there are lots of situations that are handled solely by poker sites.

Probably 90+% of the world of poker occurs outside of 2+2. Yet, for some reason, most of our poker experience is based upon events from inside. It's an unfair bias.

Bellagibro 05-11-2007 02:08 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
I for one need a better answer than, "We can't prove without a doubt that they are bots, so we'll let them play and if we catch them in the future, we'll cross that bridge when we get there."

ALLEN BOND 05-11-2007 02:18 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
Absurd response. People guilty openly admitted to using scripted tools, FTP did nothing to close their accounts.

No example was set.

You are not allowed to bring tools to a live game, why should you be allowed to use automated scripts online?

Bellagibro 05-11-2007 02:23 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
My question is do you know of any bots that have been banned by FTP? I still have those super short buy in guys that play 7/5 all in preflop poker.

KurtSF 05-11-2007 02:24 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Absurd response. People guilty openly admitted to using heads up displays, FTP did nothing to close their accounts.

No example was set.

You are not allowed to bring tools to a live game, why should you be allowed to use a HUD online?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are going to have to realize that it is not ultimately ethics which guides what is and not allowable, but expectations. The sites Terms and Conditions (their "rules") in the end instruct us on what is expected and what is allowed.

cassette 05-11-2007 02:51 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
Wow. [censored] FT.

PerDoom 05-11-2007 03:48 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
Hey FT,

Bye.

ClubChamp04 05-11-2007 03:50 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
So you honestly believe that the whole one month investigation and account freezing was just a facade?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no reason to believe that FT conducted any reasonable investigation. The response they left here(no bots at our site, move along now [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) and the info the Chuck provided for the investigation says it all. Since they didn't ask Chuck for any information other than a utility bill, what could they possibly be looking into for a month+ besides the data left behind that shows clearly that something isn't right here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

dp13368 05-11-2007 03:58 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
Hey FTP,

Look @ stars bonus' + even more FPPs = more rakeback than FTP, not to mention your support lacks even remote common sense. Stars support FTW

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/prom...25DepositBonus


Bye FTP have fun processing my cashout requests over the next few weeks.

You just lost $10k/month MGR.

HELLoooooooooo Stars!

Weatherhead03 05-11-2007 05:53 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Wow. [censored] FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

DrewOnTilt 05-11-2007 06:34 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A month from now, I really don't feel like reading complaints about how they don't come here anymore.


[/ QUOTE ]
If that happens, I can give the complainers a link to a corporate-speak-gibberish generator, so they can get their full dose of FTP GEORGE PAUL AND RINGO.

Here is a sample:

"Yes, we understand your concern with the missing FTP REP posts. We are working on a solution to this issue. Just this morning a meeting of all the high decision makers was held. Possible avenues of a seamless approach to solve this important issue were explored in detail. We will be sure to keep you up to date with any important developments as soon as possible. Thank you for your continued patience."

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell, here's a link right here:

http://dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/ga...eer/bin/ms.cgi

Sniper 05-11-2007 08:57 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FTPSean, if you know anything about stats, I can show you tests proving (to the furthest extent I can) that there is no way these users cannot be bots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can your stats differentiate between BOTs and Humans w/ Decision Support Software?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results I'm getting make it very unlikely humans had more than a tiny impact on the hands these users played (in other words bots played almost every single hand).


For example, let's say I test Ho: p1 = p2 vs. Ha: p1 != p2, and I want to compare vpip of 1forthethumb to full_tilting.

Using a two sample test for proportions, we get a test statistic of -.00005! This means it's pretty much impossible to reject Ho, that the vpip for the two players is the same. I think you will find similar results comparing pfr, betting, raising, cbets, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question...

Players using the same Decision Support Software Profile would be expected to have converging stats over a large enough sample size. How can the stats alone determine if a human or a bot was actually pushing the buttons?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's more of a practical concern, I find it unlikely they all sat in a room pressing the same buttons for every type of situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if they are pressing the same buttons in the same situations, because the same decision support software profile (that seems to be allowed by the sites) tells them to push the same buttons?...

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you honestly believe that a human could stick by some decision support software for 400K hands and not deviate from it at all? Doesn't seem like human nature to me. Even if they deviated from this software for only 1 or 2 hands per 100 it would create anomaly's in some of the high deviation stats...

While I understand your thinking, I dont think its logical or even possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I paid you to sit there and do what the software told you to do, could you do it? (Ignore, would you, for purposes of the question)

fwiw, over time I would expect misclicks to be minimized.

BigF 05-11-2007 08:58 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Serious post time:

Anyone who thinks that nlnut isn't using bots is either stupid, ignorant, or doesn't understand poker very well. It's obvious he's using a bot...or his team is using bots.

How can someone seriously argue that those post flop stats are "based off of a secret strategy"...give me a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL.

Bots follow a set of rules -&gt; similar post flop stats.
Grinders follow a set of rules -&gt; similar post flop stats. Impossible! Must be bots!!!! Human players can't possibly do that!!!!!!!!!

Why not? Please enlighten me, Mr. "understand poker very well", why not?

DrNo888 05-11-2007 10:48 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
So you honestly believe that the whole one month investigation and account freezing was just a facade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wasn't the investigation triggered due to nlnut making a lot of money transfer?
I doubt FTP did any kind of investigation for bots or automated software. At least not the one they did during March/April.

APerfect10 05-11-2007 11:59 PM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
If I paid you to sit there and do what the software told you to do, could you do it? (Ignore, would you, for purposes of the question)

fwiw, over time I would expect misclicks to be minimized.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well they werent being paid to sit there and make clicks; at least that is what we are being told. They are playing with their own money on their own accounts. A little different IMHO.

I'm not talking misclicks. I'm talking about where they have the nut flush and the river pairs board. Opponent pushes all-in. Strategically their rules say to fold. But they have a gut feeling and really think the guy is full of it so they decide to call. Do really think they NEVER do this because they follow the rule set 100%? IMHO, it seems rather hard to believe.

Mackerel 05-12-2007 12:19 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
I am now officially done with FTP

_dave_ 05-12-2007 12:49 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I paid you to sit there and do what the software told you to do, could you do it? (Ignore, would you, for purposes of the question)

fwiw, over time I would expect misclicks to be minimized.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well they werent being paid to sit there and make clicks; at least that is what we are being told. They are playing with their own money on their own accounts. A little different IMHO.

I'm not talking misclicks. I'm talking about where they have the nut flush and the river pairs board. Opponent pushes all-in. Strategically their rules say to fold. But they have a gut feeling and really think the guy is full of it so they decide to call. Do really think they NEVER do this because they follow the rule set 100%? IMHO, it seems rather hard to believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

AP10, while they were indeed not being paid an hourly to click, it was not far off.

The scenario suggested was that all wins/losses/rakeback across all accounts was pooled and profits distributed equally to reduce the effect of variance on the individual incomes.

The moniker of "sweatshop" stereotypes a scenario with one slavedriver reaping the profits while the workers toil for a minimum wage - this is not the suggested case here, although given the quantity of OMG BOT! OMG SWEATSHOP! posts it is easy to have missed this detail.

Given this - going with a "gut feeling and really think the guy is full of it" read - great if successful, but if not - face the wrath of the other grinders following "the system" for costing them all $$ by deviating of his own accord.

Now obviously this is a weird situation to imagine... but if you were a losing player, recruited by/joined a so called "sweatshop" and were suddenly banking a steady earn from minimal winrate + decent RB, surely you can understand why a drone would think "OMG this LAG is so FOS, no way he has a boat!!! but "system" says fold, I fold, ho-hum, on to the next hand"

Thoughts?

dave.

burningyen 05-12-2007 12:55 AM

Re: Official Full Tilt Poker Response to Bot Thread
 
I vowed never to put any money back into FTP after the account hacking scandal. It's good to see that I still don't need to bother.


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