Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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High stakes pros bluff. I call.

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best advice in this thread so far. glad i waded through the crap to get to this golden post. ty, sir.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I would follow the usual mindset that "everyone always has it" here and fold.

I think you still need to c bet this flop a good amount of the time. A solid player isn't calling in the sb there with a ton of suited connectors, and in my experience from watching his videos and playing him, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors OOP. So its not like he connects with this flop more often than you do; I definitely like a c bet with air.

-Jeff

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Haven't spent much time railbirding him but if this assessment is true then this post seems right on. Bottom line, this flop is scarier for him then it is for you.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

I haven't read anything in this thread, but it's a terrible call because sbrugby is obviously not bluffing enough in this spot with overbets like that to make it +EV. Easy fold, pure math.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Now that I saw results, wow vnh !! It make perfect sense for Aba to over bet. There's an other reason for that bet, not only it look like "it want to fold him so he'll see that as a bluff and call with a K", but it protect him from being bluff !! say he bets 2/3 and WL pushes... he's in a tough spot...

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phil are you on crack?

i ask this because i think you're a pretty sick player and that last statement blew my mind...

or maybe it was a joke. i dont even know anymore

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How so ?? It was not a joke, if aba bets 10k or so on the river and WL push 30k more, how isn't that a tough call ?? but if aba bets 30k and WL goes AI for 10k more, that would be an easy fold no ?? Explain me what you mean I don't realy get the blew my mind

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

phil

he means, if aba is value betting 30k, he already thinks he has the best hand. so if he bets 10k instead, he will gladly call the allin because he will have induced the raise.

i think ..

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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I would follow the usual mindset that "everyone always has it" here and fold.

I think you still need to c bet this flop a good amount of the time. A solid player isn't calling in the sb there with a ton of suited connectors, and in my experience from watching his videos and playing him, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors OOP. So its not like he connects with this flop more often than you do; I definitely like a c bet with air.

-Jeff

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Jeff -

I don't play a lot of NL but I tend think that when a solid player calls me in the SB his range includes a lot of small pairs and some small suited aces.

So I feel like he will like a low flop reasonably often.

It seems like you think Aba's range consists more of suited broadway hands? Aren't those hands kind of combinatorically rare compared to small pairs?

Just curious as I have never had a good handle on solid cold-caller distributions.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

A few things:

1)the 1 c/r turn, overbet example aba gave, the flush came on the river, so it was a much better spot to overbet bluff. The non scary river card on this example lowers the chance he's bluffing.

2) Its also important to know Abas calling range. As AJeff noted, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors and weak suited aces OOP.

3) Aba is obviously capable of using this line as a bluff a lot, but the simple fact is he almost most likely never uses this line as a bluff and that has to be considered when putting him on hand ranges on the turn and river.
Its clear he ocassionaly overbets, but not nearly as much as Prahlad.

4)I really like the line Aba took.

a) by not reraising pf he didn't give the value away for his hand and allowed whitelime to stay in with an inferior kj that would have probably folded to a rr

b) he exponentialized the pot with the c/r the turn and made himself an extra ~ $35,000

Risky move but a good one for a variety of reasons but my post is long enough.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Bld or someone else who gets this,
I understand why 30k is better than 20k here. Why is 30k better than a shove (~40k looks like)?

If aba had 100k behind on the river, what bet size is best and why?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

nice post blds

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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1)the 1 c/r turn, overbet example aba gave, the flush came on the river, so it was a much better spot to overbet bluff.

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*** RIVER *** [8d Qd 7s 2c] [4c]

The 56 got there, though.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Just curious, Bld, do you still play HSNL? Retired/hiatus? Diff. screen name?

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Why is 30k better than a shove (~40k looks like)?

[/ QUOTE ] it's better if he thinks it will get called at least 133% as often. i'm inclined to think this is true by far.



[/ QUOTE ] If aba had 100k behind on the river, what bet size is best

[/ QUOTE ] the one that maximizes (frequency of call)*(amount)

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and why?

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because that maximizes, EV silly.

i know these answers were trivial, but they're the most straight-forward for your questions.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

Thanks for responding, but I wanted more than that obviously. I'm really unfamiliar with the overbetting dynamic on the river because at my stakes nobody ever does it.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

With a player that is as good as sbrugby, I don't think I could put more accuracy than 50% bluff, 50% not bluff.....so then just do the math-50% of the time you win this and 50% you lose that......if you can come up with more accurate %s then apply them. Well I guess that's all obvious....so I guess all I'm saying is it would be hard to narrow down better than 50/50 whether he is bluffing or seeming bluffing but really having the winning hand(to me). I'd probably fold. However I would have bet the flop and the turn.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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A few things:

1)the 1 c/r turn, overbet example aba gave, the flush came on the river, so it was a much better spot to overbet bluff. The non scary river card on this example lowers the chance he's bluffing.

2) Its also important to know Abas calling range. As AJeff noted, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors and weak suited aces OOP.

3) Aba is obviously capable of using this line as a bluff a lot, but the simple fact is he almost most likely never uses this line as a bluff and that has to be considered when putting him on hand ranges on the turn and river.
Its clear he ocassionaly overbets, but not nearly as much as Prahlad.

4)I really like the line Aba took.

a) by not reraising pf he didn't give the value away for his hand and allowed whitelime to stay in with an inferior kj that would have probably folded to a rr

b) he exponentialized the pot with the c/r the turn and made himself an extra ~ $35,000

Risky move but a good one for a variety of reasons but my post is long enough.

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this post has more logic and is more coherent than any other post on here. i agree with every single point, but 3) and 4a) are the most important in this scenario.
dlpnyc21

Results?
 

Results of the hand please.

Re: Results?
 

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Results of the hand please.

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Aba had AA

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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nice post blds

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Yeah, thanks for posting.

Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
 

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Aba knows you have to fold 2/3 of the time to make a bluff here profitable. he also obviously knows you have a K. you're a thinking player who is capable of making a big call down here. i dont think he would ever think he could get you to fold more than 2/3 of the time here...

i'd lay it down



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Why can't this argument be levelled too? If whitelime knows that aba is unlikely to bluff because of the bad pot odds on the bluff, then that makes a bluff more likely to succeed.

FWIW (it's not worth anything), i thought this was a fold. best arguments for me were a) terrible pot odds on the call and b) aba likely to be taking advantage of whitelime's possible willingness to call overbets.