Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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Why not instead move some of those young guns to the bullpen?


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I actually support this idea. I think Homer Bailey might have the highest EV as a reliever and the Reds still have a high leverage slot available.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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I think you are underrating Kubel. I'd have him penciled in as the starter in LF for next season. He is average to above average as a fielder (in left) and an above average hitter. His 2007 line was very similar to the average AL left fielder:
AL Average: .275/.335/.426
Kubel: .273/.335/.450

What makes me even more hopeful about his future is that his walk rate consistently improved all year, he hits more line drives then anyone on the team and he had a great second half. In fact, over the 2nd half, he was the best hitter on the team, hitting .303/.379/.511. That isn't a big enough sample so that you could expect him to keep it up next year, but it is enough to hope. Combined with his career minor league line of .320/.388/.499 it seems a little more likely that his 2nd half performance could look more like his future then this 1st half.

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I've got Kubel penciled in as well, and they could make do with him if they had to, but this is one area where they can and will look to improve.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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they should actually trade santana and blow it up

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Dynamite drop in. That broadcasting school has really paid off.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

your post had a lot of superfluous mean-nothing in it, it's simple: blow it up.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I think the most interesting thing about this story is, while they give Santana gets the headline, the only thing the Yankees specifically say the are looking for is relief. Joe Nathan is a much more tradeable piece of the Twins puzzle, and Juan Rincon is pretty fungible to the Twins but has some value to the Yanks. Maybe we'll see a Rincon for Brett Gardner deal come out of this. Another possibility would be Nathan for Cabrera, although that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense for the Yankees.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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It is easily addressed: trade Dunn.

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That's trading over 30% of your offense when it's at best unproven Bruce can replace it and Hamilton can hold up for an entire season.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I just think with the CF/DH/3B/2B situation they have, they shouldn't be looking to improve a position where they already have a league-average player. Right now, given in-house talent, they might be able to swing a league-average platoon at one of those 4 positions with the other 3 all being significantly below average.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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It is easily addressed: trade Dunn.

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That's trading over 30% of your offense when it's at best unproven Bruce can replace it and Hamilton can hold up for an entire season.

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You know very little about baseball if you think trading Dunn is bad.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

Is it me, or are the preliminary offers for Santana really low?

The Twins have opened trade discussions for Johan Santana by asking the Yankees for a package of at least three young players that would include one of their three top starters -- Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy -- plus center fielder Melky Cabrera.

The Twins are talking with several teams and are asking for a large return for their two-time Cy Young winner. From Boston, they asked about one of two top young pitchers -- Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester -- plus center field prodigy Jacoby Ellsbury, league sources told SI.com.

Dude, Lester + Ellsbury? Done in a second. Hughes + Cabrera? SIGN ME UP WTF?!?! This is not a lot for the best pitcher in baseball.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

1) Is he still the best pitcher in baseball?
2) Is one year of him really worth more than five years each of Cabrera/Hughes or Ellesbury/Bucholz?

The Twins' leverage comes from the trading partner's ability to negotiate with Santana, but it's partially nullified by Santana's no-trade clause. Getting ten years worth of major league ready, high celing talent doesn't seem that far off to me.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

1. lol
2. it's a good thing you get more than one year of him. and for the yankees and sox it most likely is.

there's no pitcher in baseball who is as likely as santana to be an elite performer for the next five years. that's worth almost any price to pay. and considering we're talking about the best pitcher in baseball, not just "any" performer...

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

On 1, there are arguments to be made concerning declining stats and Josh Beckett. Just floating the question though.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

Not very many reasonable ones, unless you like to tremendously overrate one season and ignore things like consistency and never getting injured and pitching a lot of innings.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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I just think with the CF/DH/3B/2B situation they have, they shouldn't be looking to improve a position where they already have a league-average player. Right now, given in-house talent, they might be able to swing a league-average platoon at one of those 4 positions with the other 3 all being significantly below average.

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Casilla is a strength at 2B. He should be league average or better with his on base skills, speed, and defense. He's basically Luis Castillo with the potential to be the young Luis Castillo. No matter what, the Twins will not be looking for a 2B.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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Is it me, or are the preliminary offers for Santana really low?

The Twins have opened trade discussions for Johan Santana by asking the Yankees for a package of at least three young players that would include one of their three top starters -- Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy -- plus center fielder Melky Cabrera.

The Twins are talking with several teams and are asking for a large return for their two-time Cy Young winner. From Boston, they asked about one of two top young pitchers -- Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester -- plus center field prodigy Jacoby Ellsbury, league sources told SI.com.

Dude, Lester + Ellsbury? Done in a second. Hughes + Cabrera? SIGN ME UP WTF?!?! This is not a lot for the best pitcher in baseball.

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I've actually thought the offers to be too high, but I haven't heard either of those rumors. I think the Ellsbury/Lester deal is one that could happen if there were a low level/high ceiling prospect as well. The problem is, I don't see the Red Sox dropping 6/150 on Johan, and that package is too much for a one year rental. My guess is, the only team that can realistically trade for Santana as more than a one year rental is the Yankees, and that's why I think the best the Twins are going to do is Wang, Cabrera, and a low level/high ceiling prospect. If I'm the Yankees, I hold on to the ceilings of Hughes and Chamberlain, mostly because I can.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

meh, he's turning 29 in the offseason and his numbers are trending downwards (granted, not drastically) to the point where he's come back to the pack a bit. With both Beckett and CC's numbers trending the other direction and being two years younger, it's feasible they'll be better investments. Santana's probably still the best, but two years ago I wouldn't have thought to question it. I just don't think he's the 2004 johan any more.

By the way, was there any noticable change in Santana's peripheral numbers that would explain the sudden increase in HRs allowed this year?

edit: One other consideration: While I'd rather have Johan for the regular season, I can't say I choose him to pitch the one-game playoff game for my life over Beckett. If the decision makers feel the same way, that has to be a consideration for teams like the Yanks/Sox, for whom making the playoffs isn't enough. Am I off in any of this?

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

A few rumors floating around.

This one a reader from a blog heard on the radio, so it's dubious at best. The deal does make a little sense, so I'll pass it along. The Twins are supposedly going to ship Justin Morneau to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman.

Chris Lubanski has been left unprotected for the Rule V draft. He's still a little raw, but toolsy enough that he might be able to handle CF in 2008. Tampa Bay won't draft him unless it's to trade, but he could end up starting in CF for Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Florida, or San Fran.

"Things are heating up" between the Twins and Red Sox for Coco Crisp. Unfortunately, no mention of who'd be going the other way. I wonder if the other rumor has anything to do with this rumor?

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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the way, was there any noticable change in Santana's peripheral numbers that would explain the sudden increase in HRs allowed this year?


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No.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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A few rumors floating around.

This one a reader from a blog heard on the radio, so it's dubious at best. The deal does make a little sense, so I'll pass it along. The Twins are supposedly going to ship Justin Morneau to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman.

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How could the Yanks not trump this offer? Seems unlikely.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

How could they? Kotchman is good. Santana is decent. The Yanks don't have many MLB-ready players to offer.

I don't see how or why the Sox wouldn't go 150/6 with Johan.

People are really overrating pitching prospects.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

trading morneau for kotchman straight up would be a pretty big win for the twins. factoring in age and defense (kotchman is sick defensively) i don't think there's too big a difference between the two going forward, and kotchman is cheaper and under control for more years

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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It is easily addressed: trade Dunn.

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That's trading over 30% of your offense when it's at best unproven Bruce can replace it and Hamilton can hold up for an entire season.

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You know very little about baseball if you think trading Dunn is bad.

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Can you make a point instead of just being dismissive and insulting to someone who might disagree with your non-point?

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

The point is so obvious that it doesn't need re-stating. I don't like stating the obvious.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

Okay, maybe I'm as stupid as you say, but would you just make the [censored] point already.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I believe what Vyse is tired of saying is that Dunn is a terrible defensive OF. While he generates lots of runs with his walks and HR, he costs the Reds runs with his D. Is that about right Vyse?

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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I believe what Vyse is tired of saying is that Dunn is a terrible defensive OF. While he generates lots of runs with his walks and HR, he costs the Reds runs with his D. Is that about right Vyse?

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Even with those adjustments, and they are huge, he's terrible on defense, he's still the second most valuable player on the Reds and a top 5 overall LF in the majors. Maybe I'm wrong and he's just as terrible at 1B, but I think he'd be more valuable there.

EDIT: He's the 3rd most valuable Red, 2nd if were only talking position players.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

pretty much. sloth nailed it. ty.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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I believe what Vyse is tired of saying is that Dunn is a terrible defensive OF. While he generates lots of runs with his walks and HR, he costs the Reds runs with his D. Is that about right Vyse?

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Even with those adjustments, and they are huge, he's terrible on defense, he's still the second most valuable player on the Reds and a top 5 overall LF in the majors. Maybe I'm wrong and he's just as terrible at 1B, but I think he'd be more valuable there.

EDIT: He's the 3rd most valuable Red, 2nd if were only talking position players.

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Top 5 LF? LF's I would rather have than Adam Dunn:

Manny Ramirez
Hideki Matsui
Carl Crawford
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Lee
Matt Holliday

No way he's moving to 1B, Votto is going to be there for the next 6 years. That he's the 2nd most valuable Red's everyday player says a lot about the Reds; Good luck, Dusty-still hoping you DIAGF.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

votto might not even be there this year lollerskates

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

Melky + Hughes >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t; Johan

For the Yankees, this may actually be reasonable with their need for wins >90. But still terrible IMO. This is sheer idiocy otherwise.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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votto might not even be there this year lollerskates

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Is there talk of trading him? I know Dusty loves to play vets while quality kids rot in the minors or on the bench, but c'mon. Even Baker has to be able to figure out this kid can and should be playing.

Then again, I can see Dusty giving someone like Conine 500 at bats. So glad the Cubs fired him.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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I believe what Vyse is tired of saying is that Dunn is a terrible defensive OF. While he generates lots of runs with his walks and HR, he costs the Reds runs with his D. Is that about right Vyse?

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Even with those adjustments, and they are huge, he's terrible on defense, he's still the second most valuable player on the Reds and a top 5 overall LF in the majors. Maybe I'm wrong and he's just as terrible at 1B, but I think he'd be more valuable there.

EDIT: He's the 3rd most valuable Red, 2nd if were only talking position players.

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Top 5 LF? LF's I would rather have than Adam Dunn:

Manny Ramirez
Hideki Matsui
Carl Crawford
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Lee
Matt Holliday

No way he's moving to 1B, Votto is going to be there for the next 6 years. That he's the 2nd most valuable Red's everyday player says a lot about the Reds; Good luck, Dusty-still hoping you DIAGF.

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I don't agree with Matsui or Crawford, though it's close and good arguments can be made. Of course Manny even though he sucks at LF even more than Dunn. But Carlos Lee, are you kidding me? He's a worse hitter and every bit as bad defensively.

Quite frankly, being the Reds, I'm surprised they have anyone more valuable than Dunn. I'm open to reasons trading Dunn maybe being a good move, but Vyse's reason is not it.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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votto might not even be there this year lollerskates

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Is there talk of trading him? I know Dusty loves to play vets while quality kids rot in the minors or on the bench, but c'mon. Even Baker has to be able to figure out this kid can and should be playing.

Then again, I can see Dusty giving someone like Conine 500 at bats. So glad the Cubs fired him.

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Traded Conine to the Mets at the deadline last year, but they did just pick up Hatteberg's option for this year. I hope to god it was for trade bait, because I can see Dusty giving him Votto's at bats.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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votto might not even be there this year lollerskates

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Is there talk of trading him? I know Dusty loves to play vets while quality kids rot in the minors or on the bench, but c'mon. Even Baker has to be able to figure out this kid can and should be playing.

Then again, I can see Dusty giving someone like Conine 500 at bats. So glad the Cubs fired him.

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TWO WORDS (free way, mos def, hot [censored]): scott hatteberg. hatte + dusty = sucks for votto.

unless you have faith hatteberg is traded. and faith + reds should not be in the same sentence.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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unless you have faith hatteberg is traded. and faith + reds should not be in the same sentence.

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Now that I agree with.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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The problem is, I don't see the Red Sox dropping 6/150 on Johan...

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I keep reading that Santana is looking for "Barry Zito money" which is $18M/year.

Given the apparent lack of market for ARod, I don't think Santana can command $25M/year.

In 2007, the highest paid pitcher was Bartolo Colon and Andy Pettitte. at $16M.


http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseb...aspx?year=2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...seball_players

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I don't see the Red Sox giving six years to any pitcher. I don't think they'd shy away from $20m per, but I suspect their front office knows better than to give any pitcher six years.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

$20m yr for 6 years of Santana would be a very fair deal, dunno what you're talking about

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

I must have had something funny for lunch, because I find myself agreeing with Vyse a lot today. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

This isn't just any pitcher; it's Johan Santana. He'll be 29 next year, so he'd only be 35 at the end of a six year deal. He may lose a little towards the end of the deal, but at 35 he'd still have plenty left in the tank. Factor in what the market for a pitcher of his skill will be six years, and I think 6 years/120 million sounds like a pretty good deal.

Re: ***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***
 

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Of course Manny even though he sucks at LF even more than Dunn.

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Manny's days of being a better LF option than Dunn have passed. It's that old guy vs guy in his prime thing.