Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Samford went off at 3.5 and lost by 8
UtahSt at 2.5 [same] and won by 3.

1-1 on the nite.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

For today:

BC -3 vs. URI at 4pm


Another that doesn't quite qualify for the home-fave system but I also like Chaminade -2 vs. Princeton.
It's close to a home situation for Chaminade but not quite.
And Princeton isn't exactly an 'away' team any more because they have played in that same gym the past 2 days so should be perfectly comfortable with their surroundings by now.

Mostly though I just like Chaminade better. They've looked pretty good in both of their close losses to Marquette and LSU so far while I thought Princeton was looking pretty bad although they did hang in there in the 1st half vs. ASU and appeared to be on the unlucky side of an especially poor shooting night.
But I'm still liking Cham's chances in this one and even though it doesn't technically qualify in the home-faves system I'm throwing it out there anyway.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

And before anyone even tries going there:
No...Syracuse playing OSU at MSG definitely does not count in the home-fave system. At least Chaminade is kinda/sorta related to it.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

BC wins by 4.
I took them at -2 but the line eventually closed at -1.

Even though Naj wasn't around to mention this one and I guess might not have played it we can still go ahead and chalk up another one for 'the system'.


Also - my Chaminade pick was a winner too but does not technically count for the system's record.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Of course it counts, you don't need me to read a screen.

13-7 ytd.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Lots of games today seem to qualify... any thoughts?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

So far I see all of these as current qualifiers

BGSU -2
Ball St. -2
Georgia St. -2.5
Wis-Mil -2.5
UNLV-3
Western Kent -1.5
Iona -3.5

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
So far I see all of these as current qualifiers

BGSU -2
Ball St. -2
Georgia St. -2.5
Wis-Mil -2.5
UNLV-3
Western Kent -1.5
Iona -3.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Ball State started at PK.

Iona and Western Kentucky are neutral site.

Nevada-UNLV could be viewed as a rivalry game.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Wasnt sure about the rivalry being involved there.

Thanks for pointing out the others.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

bg is now out at as well

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So far I see all of these as current qualifiers

Georgia St. -3
Wis-Mil -2.5


[/ QUOTE ]

Nevada-UNLV should be viewed as one of the rare rivalry game nonqualifiers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

1-1, 14-8 season

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Anyone taking Central Florida vs. Penn State as a system play? It's a neutral site tournament in Orlando, but UCF is located there too.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

As I mentioned with the Chaminade pick...there is a certain amount of advantage that is lost in tourneys such as these because PSU has been playing there too and is now very familiar and comfortable with the environment.
I mostly picked Chaminade because I liked them better in that game.

Disney's complex could be 15-20 minutes or so from where UCF would normally play their home games for all I know.
If we officially count Chaminade and Central Florida as being 'home' games because they are 'close enough' then do we also call USC practically a home game because they are playing in a similar tourney in Anaheim and will have most of the fan support?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Last time we went over this we decided that tourney games NOT in home gym do not count.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Any games for today? Potential games for tomorrow?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
Last time we went over this we decided that tourney games NOT in home gym do not count.

[/ QUOTE ]
I clearly missed that discussion. Anyway, I did bet UCF today, and it sorta makes up for my betting Bowling Green at -1 yesterday right before it moved to PK before tip-off.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

I think Akron qualifies... it's a home game vs. Temple and the line is -4.5

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

AKR has a kind of small and weird home-court that I think is to their advantage.
I don't know if that aspect actually plays out in the numbers or not, just how it feels to me.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's a home game vs. Temple and the line is -4.5

[/ QUOTE ]

going going.... GONE

(obviously this system has huge selection bias going in each direction. games that open at -1.5 and are total losers, end up not being used. easy winners that open -4 and close -6 aren't used either, so presumably it balances out. but in the end the system uses a weird set of games - games that don't have much betting action either way.)

(i do like following the system, because it means i keep my eye on these games, and generally, there IS a lot of action on the small home favs.)

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

The line finished at 5.5 and I took Temple for this one actually just on a hunch that they would hang in there and make it a close game.
Since it got to 5.5 I didn't feel so bad since I was not technically going against 'the system'.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

[ QUOTE ]

games that open at -1.5 and are total losers, end up not being used.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? Games that go from -1.5 to +1.5 are not used, so we congratulate ourselves for not taking a line 3 points worse. Is that it?

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

i believe Elon and UCSB are plays for tonight.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Booked it on Elon and UCSB tonight. Assuming both are fair plays, and Elon tipped off at 7pm.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

looks right to me

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Go Phoenix!! (that's the Elon mascot which I just looked up)

I'm on both of these as well.
Elon down 26-18 at half but have closed it to a 2 point deficit now.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Elon up by 7 with 8 mins to go.
I'm getting excited!!

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Elon by 10.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Never a doubt in my mind.
You don't just waltz into Alumni Gym in Elon, North Carolina and expect to walk out with a win.

In other news, these guys actually put up decent battles against UGA and VT. Only lost by 5 at VT.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

1-0 on Elon with UCSB hosting last year's Elite 8 UNLV.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Elon is actually very good for a small school, I've seen them in person and followed them for 10+ years, the guys down there who couldn't get into UNC/NCSU/Dook/Wake go there instead and can really ball alot of the time

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Same with Davidson.

UCSB and UNLV tied at 58 with 1:30 to go. Hopefully UCSB takes the lead and UNLV fouls.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

UCSB scored 16 in the first half? Holy basket cover batman!

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

...and UCSB wins 63-60, failing to cover -4. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

WTB OT

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

UCSB by 3. If you got it at 2 you won, at 3 you pushed and at 4 you lost. Most of today was >3 so we'll grade this one a loser. 16 in first half, 47 in 2ndH, yowza cold 20 mins there.
15-9 ytd.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Damn, close one today. I'm 6-10-1 YTD on this system [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. I have bad timing.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Looks like tomorrow gives a few options to bet for this particular system....

Eastern Mich
Michigan
Maryland
Valpo

just to name a few, should be interesting

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Do ACC/Big 10 challenge games fit here? UMD beat Illinois in Champaign last year and it was a very emotionally charged game, don't know if that factors in at all.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

Good point.
If we're discounting the big rivalry games then I think doing the same for the Big10/ACC challenge could be warranted because I think these games are kind of a big deal for many of the schools, similar in emotion to a conference game I suppose.

Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System
 

I know nothing about the area or the schools but I have to think Portland vs. Portland St is likely a rivalry game for those programs.
One is in the WCC and the other is in the Big Sky.


Lots of other games to watch tonight.
I'm looking at
EMU -3
CMU -4.5
Rich -3.5 (rivalry vs. Wm and Mary maybe?)
MICH -3
MD -2.5
ARK -4.5
Valpo -3.5
PSU -1.5
NEV -3.5
EKU -1.5
La Tech -3

The MD, MICH and PSU games I'm undecided on including as I think there is significant pride in this Big10/ACC showdown thing that they do.


Wm and Mary College is 50 miles from Richmond. Both teams might view this as somewhat rivalry-like.

And just outside of the home-fave system are a few other games that I like too including:
Wright St -5
Kent -5
Miami OH -6

FWIW - even if the Miami OH line was less than 5 I think their annual battle against Dayton is a big enough deal for both programs to count as a rivalry game.