Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

gotta get it gotta have it once i got it i'm a spend it then it's back to doing any damn thing just to get it.

AMIRITE?!?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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Coke is a helluva drug.

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QFT

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i really isnt

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling. The reason there is a ceiling in the stock market at around 500 million dollars is that at that point your much to large to invest in smaller companies, because you either will end up owning the company or not allowing enough shares for the market to dictate the value of it you also can't invest small portions in lots of companies because of the ammount of time involved in researching the companies, you'd need a very very large team of great investors looking in many different markets. This basically forces you into investing in large companies, though the problem with this is that, large companies are generally held by lots of people so the shares are generally very accurate in representing the company worth. Similar to sports betting on the NFL, unless your the very best, the lines are so close that the average bettor can not make any money off them.

So when were discussing this in regards to poker, the pool of players obvs shrinks as you move up in limits and you can't take advantage of all the donkeys at the 10nl level when your playing but the possibility that a good portion of the 9 players you will play against at your 10nl table will suck is very high, well the proportion of donkeys at each subsequent level decreases probably to some percent, although there may be some random varation. So when you start to reach the 100/200nl (some random level i choose) then the probablity that you will sit with a donkey has dratmatically decreases, and your now happy if a player has a couple of leeks. So obv everyone knows the variance increases as skill increases.

The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.

I was going to write some whole thing about internet leting the very best players play each other and yadda yadda yadda but i wno't cover that now.

I hope this helps answer the question at bit better though

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling. The reason there is a ceiling in the stock market at around 500 million dollars is that at that point your much to large to invest in smaller companies, because you either will end up owning the company or not allowing enough shares for the market to dictate the value of it you also can't invest small portions in lots of companies because of the ammount of time involved in researching the companies, you'd need a very very large team of great investors looking in many different markets. This basically forces you into investing in large companies, though the problem with this is that, large companies are generally held by lots of people so the shares are generally very accurate in representing the company worth. Similar to sports betting on the NFL, unless your the very best, the lines are so close that the average bettor can not make any money off them.

So when were discussing this in regards to poker, the pool of players obvs shrinks as you move up in limits and you can't take advantage of all the donkeys at the 10nl level when your playing but the possibility that a good portion of the 9 players you will play against at your 10nl table will suck is very high, well the proportion of donkeys at each subsequent level decreases probably to some percent, although there may be some random varation. So when you start to reach the 100/200nl (some random level i choose) then the probablity that you will sit with a donkey has dratmatically decreases, and your now happy if a player has a couple of leeks. So obv everyone knows the variance increases as skill increases.

The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.

I was going to write some whole thing about internet leting the very best players play each other and yadda yadda yadda but i wno't cover that now.

I hope this helps answer the question at bit better though

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good thing I never loose

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I like what u said there warrant

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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Balloon payments on adjustable rate mortgages.

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lol...time to refi

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Can't refi when there's no more equity!!! busto!!!

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Brad Booth on the Hardcore Poker Show laid it out: he left Vegas with 3 million he built up through live play, and went home to Vancouver. He couldn't find those levels of play live, so he turned to the internet, and his intuitive skills didn't work. Lost a million, then chased it, lost two, chased that, and.... busto. Pretty interesting interview..

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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They haven't built the fame, fortune and success they now hold by practicing piss poor bankroll management

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i'm pretty sure that's exactly what a lot of them have done

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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Thanks Aaron. I recently saw you shortstacking either the 2/4 or 3/6 HSPLO on FT. I know you dont regularly play HSPLO or HSNL, on FTP anyways, were you playing outside your BR? Was there any special reason you were giving that game a shot? Curious is all....

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I had been drinking and had to much money in my account. One of those "oh I'll take an 8k shot, it'll be fun", which was obv just an idiot move. I cashed out a decent amount the next day, which I should have done a week ago, to make sure I didn't do it again. I don't play HS, mostly 10/20 and 25/50pl and 30/60 through 1/200 o8.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

warrant's analogy is flawed.

It may be true that poker players reach a ceiling above which they can't effectively use their bankroll (rolled for one level, have excess cash that they can't use to play the next level responsibly, because their edge there is too small is doesn't exist). But those players should simply find their level, play for income, and invest the excess in a market where they don't have that problem. After all, the poker "ceiling" is much lower than the stock market "ceiling." Or, stop playing for income at all, if the money you make elsewhere makes your max poker hourly seem a waste of time. Furthermore, even if an investor cannot find a way around the big-capital problem, at minimum he can earn the risk-free rate, which hardly equals going broke.

Poker players go bust for all the reasons others listed: they play too high due to ego, overestimating their edge, having too much gamble; and/or they have poor money management outside of their bankroll, including bad investments, too much spending, too much pit gambling. But it isn't because their bankroll gets so large that are forced to play with too thin of an edge - believing this is the case assumes that the goal is to perpetually move up; in finance this can be a real problem, because your available investment capital is by definition your entire net worth, and if that amount is too large you run into problems maintaining your roi; in poker you just divert the excess.