Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

He may very well be getting to the river with KKs, KsJ, AsJ, etc. but is he going to call an all-in here with it?

He doesn't seem like a player that would call his off his "tournament life" on such a board facing your 3 barrel.

I don't know, I just think it's way way more likely he has you beat than he calls when he doesn't.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

end thread at ansky plz,. some of you are insufferable nits.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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that does sound really nitty, and I'm king nit

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I dunno, I mean almost always playing it the same, but I can't help but feel in the backwards world of live poker that you're rarely getting called by anything worse than a flush here, and that it's possible this bet is closer to a bluff than value bet, even against this guy. I think betting smaller is the way to go and folding to a raise, but even checking behind doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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that does sound really nitty, and I'm king nit

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HU4NITS? j/k I'm way too nitty to play HU

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

i think if people don't want to shove, that checking this river would be quite an absurd leak. how could bet/folding ever have a worse expectation vs his range(s)?

in fact, if someone good at math(read:mikej) could come in here and figure out how often he needs to call a shove vs how often he needs to call 4500 w/ qx to make the latter more profitable, i would not be surprised if because he folds a queen like always to our shove - and that bet/folding X amount of chips would be better than a shove by a long shot.

as i said in my first post however, i think the turn bet should be bigger to make the river shove more natural. kindv hard to figure out how to size bets perfectly ahead of time w/o the #'s in front of our faces tho. =[

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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i think if people don't want to shove, that checking this river would be quite an absurd leak. how could bet/folding ever have a worse expectation vs his range(s)?

in fact, if someone good at math(read:mikej) could come in here and figure out how often he needs to call a shove vs how often he needs to call 4500 w/ qx to make the latter more profitable, i would not be surprised if because he folds a queen like always to our shove - and that bet/folding X amount of chips would be better than a shove by a long shot.

as i said in my first post however, i think the turn bet should be bigger to make the river shove more natural. kindv hard to figure out how to size bets perfectly ahead of time w/o the #'s in front of our faces tho. =[

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This is certainly true and why I said in my 2nd post, I guess betting HAS to be better because if he shoves you know you're beat.

I actually do this sometimes and it looks like I'm a huge donk to the rest of the table, I'm sure. This could be a good thing too, though.

I bet if I looked over my HHs I could find a few spots where I bet/folded small thinking he has to call with anything decent he had to begin with, but he certainly won't shove, and I can fold to the shove.

It sucks to do it but checking behind is losing value and a leak for sure, even if you look like a huge [censored] moron bet/folding (which as I said can certainly be a good thing, as well).


EDIT: Also, I've started liking to do a similar thing with min or mini-raising rivers for value.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.

Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.


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Why are you complicating things with broad assumptions about "live players?" (btw, is the definition of a "live player" someone who doesn't make his living playing internet poker?) Based on your original description of your opponent, it's a clear value-bet on the river, and if you want to simplify the hand and generally play it better, do what Waco said and keep the pot smaller.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

am i the only one who wants to make it like 1650 preflop?

edited to say 1650

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I think the problem with shoving this river is that you are turning a hand with a lot of value into a total bluff. It is true that the villain said he would have had to call a bet on the river in the previous hand but there is NO indication that he would stack off a 150bb stack with a hand that you beat. There is a big difference between calling a bet and calling an All-In for what basically amounts to his entire stack. I think in a lot of cases you are still good here and think that betting for value would be much more profitable in the long run. I do not like putting your tourney life on the line in this situation. There is a big difference between a 40BB stack that most of us are used to online and the 150bb stack that you are playing. In the end, Joe Hachem's comment may not be as bad as people are making it out to be. What hand that was in his range does Bond beat? Which of these are calling? Very few. Which hands that beat Bond are folding? How about calling? I would say more are going to call than are going to fold.