Two Plus Two Newer Archives - AA 8k deep vs applsgirls

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It's possible that the range applsgirls is gonna get it in here is much, much wider than I thought, but waiting until the turn is something you guys shoud look into, on this board, with these stack sizes and that raise.

The shove would be 4200 into 7600, unlikely (and not that bad for you) if he folds any decent combo draw on the turn (and reduces your variance quite a lot). 0% chance he folds AJ+ on a card lower than J, and unlikely IMO that he folds it even on a Q or K.

It's just a matter of going through the ranges, looking at how often a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] screws you (obviously if pure air or very speculative bluffs make up a certain % of his range, this option becomes less good looking, because he will continue on a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn, and you will end sacraficing the pot incorrectly too often). There's only 11 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out there, 9 if he has the flush draw, so we are only sacraficing the pot 20% of the time at most (assuming he shoves his entire range on a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn, I assume sometimes he checks down worse, which means we sacrafice 4k - actually the math is more complicated but im about to go feast so I'm too lazy to do it here - and not the whole pot).

On this particular board, there are so many draws we are 45-55% against, so many draws that I doubt fold turn anyway that we are even better than that against (namely Ax[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], etc), that I think you guys are disregarding this line too easily.

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yo xorbie,
you say shove blanksih
are you calling shoving or folding if the Ac hits? this clearly isnt blanksih...

btw i agree with everyone on get it in on the flop