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-   -   Flopped trips (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=550176)

teampursuit 11-21-2007 12:20 AM

Re: Flopped trips
 
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There's no way we can protect our hand against a FD (which is the only hand we'd really like to get rid of here).

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O RLY? Pot is 6.5 SB on the turn. Flop bettor makes it 7.5 and we're making it 9.5-2 to call. At 4.75-1, that's not enough to call with an eight-out flush draw (A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] boats us up).

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9.5-2 is enough to draw to an 8 out flush because 1) they won't fold so they really only need a bit less than 2-1 to peel the flop and 2) the donker will almost surely call anyway, giving them 10.5-2 even if everyone else folds. If the donker has the flush draw, and you could guarantee that a raise would fold everyone else out, then the donker is paying 2 to win 8.5, and even he has enough to continue. You cannot protect yourself against a flush draw here.

That said, raise for value! The flush draw (should it exist) is +EV, but somebody else is paying for it.


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