Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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No [censored], get confirmation of some kind that gives you a good probability of putting in a successful trade.

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It's basic high probability trading. On uptrends, you wait for pullbacks and set a stop below the pullback. It's more art than science.

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Hey FX, you get my PM? You reach any resolution on chapter 4?

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I did get the PM, 2 of them! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I haven't had a chance to open the book again since I PM'd that to you. I'll probably take a look again next week sometime. I'm going to be getting pretty busy up until the end of next week. I'll let you know.

Thanks for the help!

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

Not stupid, yet definitely not long-term +EV. Shorting before mid-March 2000 in any size requires recklessness, strong belief in prediction, or both. Market participants can maintain an irrational belief about price for a long time.

Initiating shorts in March/early April of 2000 is simple because price and volume is speaking clearly.

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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Not stupid, yet definitely not long-term +EV. Shorting before mid-March 2000 in any size requires recklessness, strong belief in prediction, or both. Market participants can maintain an irrational belief about price for a long time.

Initiating shorts in March/early April of 2000 is simple because price and volume is speaking clearly.

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Mr. Now, I'll offer one piece of advice about trading and then I'll fade to black:

You have got to get your head out of those theory trading books and quit quoting Covel, Tharp, Douglas, Elder, etc. Kind of like the way people have to finally put down the Sklansky, Harrington, etc. and simply learn to play poker. Yes, books have some good ideas and you may think quoting them on a message board makes you look smart, but you can't be so dogmatic. You keep spewing all these great academic theories on trading, but many just don't work in the real world. You have to find your own way, not the way of the authors who wrote the books. Try an original thought rather than quoting others.

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

Damn I only got half of what I wanted. 5 lots from 1.4705. I'm putting a stop at breakeven on these. The market has formed a nice top and shouldn't move back past 1.47. If it has enough force to get back up there, the trend will likely continue.

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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This is one of those trades where I'm trying to catch a monster move.

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i can't speak from a TA perspective, but from a fundamental perspective (imo), this won't be a monster move. the dollar is a weak currency with tons of downside pressure (mostly from asian countries). that pressure is weakest, and may turn to upside pressure, against the euro and pound.

i think you're looking in the wrong spot to try to catch a monster move.

Barron

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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This is one of those trades where I'm trying to catch a monster move.

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i can't speak from a TA perspective, but from a fundamental perspective (imo), this won't be a monster move. the dollar is a weak currency with tons of downside pressure (mostly from asian countries). that pressure is weakest, and may turn to upside pressure, against the euro and pound.

i think you're looking in the wrong spot to try to catch a monster move.

Barron

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First, probably a definition of monster move is in order. I'm looking for ~150 pips. Not sure what your timeframe is and I'm not sure if that consitutes a monster move for you. 150 pips on 10 lots (only got 5 on this trade)is a monster trade for me, considering I mostly daytrade 2-3 lots at a time for 15 pip moves.

Second, I agree with you on the choice of pair. I know the EUR/USD pair the best and know its flow. I wish I knew the USD/CAD better, as that might be the better place to catch a dollar move. I usually do better sticking with a market I know rather than trying to use a vehicle that I'm not familiar with. I think 150 pips is possible in the EUR/USD pair.

Where do you think the dollar will get the most "bang for he buck"?

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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This is one of those trades where I'm trying to catch a monster move.

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i can't speak from a TA perspective, but from a fundamental perspective (imo), this won't be a monster move. the dollar is a weak currency with tons of downside pressure (mostly from asian countries). that pressure is weakest, and may turn to upside pressure, against the euro and pound.

i think you're looking in the wrong spot to try to catch a monster move.

Barron

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First, probably a definition of monster move is in order. I'm looking for ~150 pips. Not sure what your timeframe is and I'm not sure if that consitutes a monster move for you. 150 pips on 10 lots (only got 5 on this trade)is a monster trade for me, considering I mostly daytrade 2-3 lots at a time for 15 pip moves.

Second, I agree with you on the choice of pair. I know the EUR/USD pair the best and know its flow. I wish I knew the USD/CAD better, as that might be the better place to catch a dollar move. I usually do better sticking with a market I know rather than trying to use a vehicle that I'm not familiar with. I think 150 pips is possible in the EUR/USD pair.

Where do you think the dollar will get the most "bang for he buck"?

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yea we've talked about this before. i don't think the pound is that different in terms of trading from the euro is it?

most bang would be against yen. already moved a ton though and the IR diff is completely dependent upon the US since BoJ is stuck at 50bps.

also, 150pips (assuming a pip is .001) is big only if you have a ton on it, which it sounds like you do.

in that sense, any move can be a "monster move."

Barron

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

The correlation between the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is very high, so you get about the same size moves overall. The spread for the EUR/USD averages about 2.5 pips while the GBP/USD averages about 4.5. That is main reason I never trade the pound. It adds up on a daytrading basis.

Never liked the Yen. Unwinding of the carry trade seems to always screw my trades. The correlation with US equities is always pretty dependable though. Seems like the yen has the capacity to move for non-fundamental reasons when I least expect it(or maybe I just don't have a good grasp of its underlying fundamentals).

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

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Not stupid, yet definitely not long-term +EV.

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This sentence caught my eye. Are you saying the commissions were too great long term, or are you saying it was definitely long term +EV to take the other side of his bet? Did you?

Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
 

Anyone use this website to gather infos about likely currency movements? Or are there other reference websites?