Re: *official* pca sat
 

24 down to 18 moved really fast. They moved fast last week too.

Even the most conservative estimate for you Vanessa, in my opinion, is a 90% chance of qualifying with your 90k stack by avoiding any significant risks. Frankly I think this number is more like 97% because you can make a few cheap steals preflop (like you had been doing) and maintain your stack, not to mention that everyone was playing really aggro and it was only a matter of time where you would walk in. People got in with like 25k and it wasn't nearly that many orbits after I was eliminated.

Okay, so let's look at the 90% figure. You correctly put me on any two cards to shove in that spot. AQo is about 65% versus my range. So 35% of the time you are down to 45k, 65% of the time you are definitely in (100%).

Now it's just a matter of determining the chance of getting in with 45k. At the time there were probably 14 stacks within this range, 7 of which got seats. I estimate that you're probably around 50% in this situation. But even if we look at the best case scenario for you, say like 70% with 45k, it would still be a fold.

30% to lose with a 45k stack mulitplied by the 35% of the time you get to that spot, 10.5% chance you bust by calling with AQo there. 10% if you just fold.

Again, those are really conservative figures and they still point to a fold. If you use say 95% with your current stack and say 50% with 45k, .35*.5 = 17.5% to lose by calling with AQo verus 5% to lose by avoiding risk.

It's not really close in my opinion. Anyways, congrats on the seat. The point of my post is not to berate you or anything, it was merely to create discussion on what you should be calling with there as it was what I considered when making the shove. If it comes off negatively, I apologize, it's probably just my frustration from bubbling 2 PCA seats this weekend.

Re: *official* pca sat
 

now you're just pulling numbers out of your ass. If it did go really fast as you said, why couldn't she have folded her way into a win with 45k?

There's a huge difference between having your bb raised every round and getting a walk. Showing that she'll defend it is a big step in that direction. Also, if busting you makes her the table leader or 2nd and to the left of the leader I think it's 100% call.

Re: *official* pca sat
 

yeah that's definitely a fold vanessa, sats are retarded

Re: *official* pca sat
 

people were playing sooooooooooo loose and bad when we got down to 3 tables. a 90k stack was more than enough to fold in. AQ is a turbo fold there.

Re: *official* pca sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
now you're just pulling numbers out of your ass. If it did go really fast as you said, why couldn't she have folded her way into a win with 45k?

There's a huge difference between having your bb raised every round and getting a walk. Showing that she'll defend it is a big step in that direction. Also, if busting you makes her the table leader or 2nd and to the left of the leader I think it's 100% call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I never claimed they were perfect numbers, I said they were estimations. Even my really conservative guesses showed it was a fold. Perhaps you could provide some different numbers.

Re: *official* pca sat
 

sats ARE retarded, I browsed craigthedeac's numbers and they look pretty similar to mine. fold :\ but at least we have another donkey at the PCA :P

Re: *official* pca sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps you could provide some different numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]Meh, I guess I'm just an aggrodonk who spite calls cause I know you're pushing junk and I defend my blinds too much. I wasn't there so I can't really know [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: *official* pca sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps you could provide some different numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]Meh, I guess I'm just an aggrodonk who spite calls cause I know you're pushing junk and I defend my blinds too much. I wasn't there so I can't really know [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense but you're dead wrong and you kind of are just saying "AQ beats a random hand so gogogo"

Re: *official* pca sat
 

Naw I wasn't saying that, I was kind of playing devil's advocate and arguing for the sake of arguing. Sats are so situationally dependant that I really have no idea how that hand should have been played and it seems that the concensus is with fold, so I am cool with that.

Re: *official* pca sat
 

I felt this sat was moving very fast.

Lots of people who prolly satd into the sat playing wayyy too tight /w short stacks. Also the big stacks were very good at putting mass pressure on all teh short stacks.

I think you have enough chips to survive without calling with the aq