Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Tenn @ TBAY +2.5

[x] Betting against the public
[x] Betting against guy on the cover of Madden
[x] Betting on home team getting less than a field goal
[x] Making money

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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seriously, I'm like 0 for 23 on asking people if they like ATL, or TB this week. This may hit a record soon.


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LOL, Simmons on Tenn, and of course NWE.

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Naj, I feel stupid even arguing about this but I just disagree with your BSP selection methods.
If you listen to Simmons' podcast, both him and his buddy guess the Bucs line exactly: "what else could it be? they're equal on a neutral field". I think he picked Tenn. in his column because he had to pick somebody and he has to pick every game.

I've just heard lots of squares voluntarily select Cincy as a game they like the most. Obv. it's somewhat subjective, but I listen to my share of radio & stuff.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

On further review, I might just be on the Falcons and nothing else this week. I'm scared to go against either New England or Tennessee as both lines are dead-on the Sagarin predictor and I see no reason to think the lines are shaded.

Also, NE's been averaging a total of over 49 this year playing a lot of bad offenses where they didn't even leave their first team O out the whole game, and I don't see much value on under 52 either. Part of me really wants to bet the Pats ML, but I don't have any reason to think that's a particularly sharp play.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Very Interesting NFL Week 6.

Prediction: 50/50 today, 6-Dogs/6-Favs.

it's time to prove your skills and knowledge at the NFL...

c ya, and good luck to ev1.

-JC

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

TSG is not part of my BSP selection method at all, I just thought that was funny so I posted it.

I ask guys I know on sales/trading desks all over the country to get a diversified base. No method is going to be perfect, that one is just the one I think works best for my selections, and in Nate's absence last year or this year, I've done pretty well posting those picks. [sample size obvs] No one has to follow them, I'm happy to keep betting them given how they've done.

Also, it seems like money has come in on KC, whereas its moved 10c against TB.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Sorry guys, I was unable to do BSP research this week. consider it a bye...

See you all next week hopefully.

natedogg

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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TB -2.5/-110 1u

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winnah!
10-3-1 nfl ATS, +5.2u, 0-3 ml

This just in: Jeff Garcia just wins football games. 9-2 last 11 reg season games.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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On further review, I might just be on the Falcons and nothing else this week. I'm scared to go against either New England or Tennessee as both lines ... I see no reason to think the lines are shaded.

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Public moved the Tenn line the half-point needed ftw! That's why the BSPs are the bomb.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

ATL +4/-105 right now, probably hold off to let the public chase their losses on the MNF game and move it more.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Yea, the ATL pick is going to be juicy tomorrow night imo