Two Plus Two Newer Archives

[ QUOTE ]
Week 6 POTW
Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u

I know...a big road fave
only reason I'm not on for a fourth unit

4-1 POTW ytd (23-11 2p2 history)
G Tech +3 @ ND: +WIN G Tech 33-0
Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: +WIN 28-17 MSU
Utah +14 v UCLA: +WIN 44-6 Utah
Indiana +3 v Illinois: -LOSS 27-14 Illini
Oklahoma/Colorado u56: WIN 27-24 Colorado

POTW gets my reasoning:

My number crunching has ASU -12.5!!!!
So, I look at the matchups and see no reason to lean Wazzu's way over my numbers. ASU has a great pass defense (#6 in pass efficiency). They held down a Colorado team that is ok passing. they picked off the Beavers 5 times... at clutch moments, too. No one has victimized them through the air, yet the passing offense is about all Wazzu has going for it. Wazzu's pass offense looks great v inferior opponents, but struggled against teams with good pass Ds (17 of 28 for 171 with 1 Int and 1 TD v Wisky, 21 of 43 for 183 with 1 int and 2 TDs v SC). Furthermore, Wazzu's rush offense is below average and ASU's rush defense is top 10. Look for Wazzu to get put in many 3rd and longs and throw a pick or two. Don't look for Wazzu to get many big plays as ASU doesn't have to respect the run game and can play 2 deeps alot.

On the other side of the ball,
Wazzu's defense is 111 in pass efficiency. FFS, they let Willie Tuitama throw for 350 and 6 TDs last week! Through 5 games, the Cougs have allowed 120 completions on 182 attempts for 1452 yards and 16 TDs while getting 7 ints (4 of which came v Idaho). ASU is #9 in pass efficieny and avgs 275 a game through the air. They also have an average rushing attack (over 4 ypc), which will force Wazzu's average rush defense (allows 4.5 ypc, but has played SC and Wisky of its 5 opponents) to pay it some mind. Looks like a decent amount of points from the ASU side.

I see a 38-21 type game.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOSS....the Cougs got to Carpenter and sacked him over and over much to my surprise