Re: on ROI
 

calm,

No chance you can hit line moves for double digits. You can, however, if you are good at handicapping beat openers for double digits. I might have been confusing. There is little to no chance of you getting an ROI of >5% on line moves even if you're hot hot hot and at soft books, well maybe at soft ones for a short short period. Regardless, I came out blasting this ROI of 2-3% when I heard it originally and will stick by it again. If you can beat WA lines for 2-3%, you're a moran of the highest order and probably need to spend time line shopping cause you're already a sick handicapper.

Re: on ROI
 

[ QUOTE ]
calm,

No chance you can hit line moves for double digits. You can, however, if you are good at handicapping beat openers for double digits. I might have been confusing. There is little to no chance of you getting an ROI of >5% on line moves even if you're hot hot hot and at soft books, well maybe at soft ones for a short short period. Regardless, I came out blasting this ROI of 2-3% when I heard it originally and will stick by it again. If you can beat WA lines for 2-3%, you're a moran of the highest order and probably need to spend time line shopping cause you're already a sick handicapper.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I guess I got confused because the rest of your post just talked about arbitrage/line shopping.

Re: on ROI
 

Calm,

No worries. But yeah, there is really no reason to be selling yourself short and hitting opening numbers at a 3% clip and then thinking you're awesome because someone claims it is (Not to take anything away from the information King Yao has provided), but there is a lot better.

Note: Your ROI should go down if you include hedging in your dollars wagered and even if you don't it should go down as optimal growth recommends a hedge on any lines that have significant movement even if the hedge is -EV.

Re: on ROI
 

Well the guy I was referring to has been winning for a while and has called 9 out of his last 10 bets correctly, with 2 of them being picking one team to be winning at half time and the other to be winning at the end of the game. He knows his stuff and seems to be at last realising the importance of bankroll management which was killing him previously along with some careless bets.
I'm just waiting to see how he'll handle the enivitable serious prolonged downswing and how he'll do over a serious sample size. I think he might be overly optimistic on how well he can do but I do think he could be a long term winner which would be a great achievement.

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

dont do it unless you have access to LOTs of team info, especially injury statuses. i have a friend who worked as the number cruncher for a bookie and he said there were only 3 guys who were positive in the long run out of hundreds of bettors. at best maybe .5-1% of them winners. those are terrible odds.

they had so much inside info, def some access to injury reports that the booking house would change the lines depending on how they bet...

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
dont do it unless you have access to LOTs of team info, especially injury statuses. i have a friend who worked as the number cruncher for a bookie and he said there were only 3 guys who were positive in the long run out of hundreds of bettors. at best maybe .5-1% of them winners. those are terrible odds.

they had so much inside info, def some access to injury reports that the booking house would change the lines depending on how they bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

HYACHACHACHAHCHAHCHACHAHCHA

This type of stuff puts me on tilt.

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

Best way to make a career of sports betting is to run hot for a year and then convince a lot of people to pay you for picks.

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

crockpot just got served [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
crockpot just got served [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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See his problem was convince people to pay then run really icy cold. If it was running redonk hot, I'd be trying to get invites to the hookz and blow parties he'd be having in his place next to Dr. Bobs.

Re: Full time sports betting?
 

RE: OP

Started while I was in university casually. Took me 4 years to get good at it. Been doing it "professionally" for 12 years. Have a great life. I look at my friends from law school and I work 1/4 of what they do and make considerably more. Wouldn't want to do anything else.

The concern I'd have is the OP hasn't given this much thought. It seems that a friend has had a hot run and based on that this looks like a cool way to make a living. This is a dangerous way to think. Based on that alone I'd say stay with the 9-5 job.