Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

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If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

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Yeah, my first thought also - is it possible that some pundits / pollsters get too caught up in the numbers game without taking a step back and thinking - "we are gonna go with a woman or a black dude?" Especially when you've got Edwards sitting over there... (I'm a registered Democrat fwiw).

-Al

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess, based in part on some stuff I've seen from pollsters on TV, is that the reps will have a hard time winning regardless of the candiates, just because of the shift against them.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess, based in part on some stuff I've seen from pollsters on TV, is that the reps will have a hard time winning regardless of the candiates, just because of the shift against them.

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I know the dems have all the momentum, thats why it seems it would be idiotic of them to go with obama or hilary bc they are probably the only 2 that the republicans have a shot of beating simply due to their race/sex.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess, based in part on some stuff I've seen from pollsters on TV, is that the reps will have a hard time winning regardless of the candiates, just because of the shift against them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the dems have all the momentum, thats why it seems it would be idiotic of them to go with obama or hilary bc they are probably the only 2 that the republicans have a shot of beating simply due to their race/sex.

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I think this is kind of an overreaction. I mean, some of it has to do with politics too. Obama is WAY more likely to get Republican votes than Edwards is. Edwards leans way way left.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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I think this is kind of an overreaction. I mean, some of it has to do with politics too. Obama is WAY more likely to get Republican votes than Edwards is. Edwards leans way way left.

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I am not so sure about the bolded part of your statement, and that I'm lacking any hard data on this, my gut agrees with NLSoldier's take on it.

-Al

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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I think this is kind of an overreaction. I mean, some of it has to do with politics too. Obama is WAY more likely to get Republican votes than Edwards is. Edwards leans way way left.

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I am not so sure about the bolded part of your statement, and that I'm lacking any hard data on this, my gut agrees with NLSoldier's take on it - it's like handicapping yourself for no good reason.

-Al

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I think being black/female is a disadvantage.

But those are the two best democratic candidates. If Edwards were the best democratic candidate, he would be CRUSHING Obama/Hillary because of their handicaps, no?

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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In general, whoever wins primaries, Republican candidate will be starting in a sizeable disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the dem nominee is obama or hilary wont the republican nominee automatically have a pretty huge advantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess, based in part on some stuff I've seen from pollsters on TV, is that the reps will have a hard time winning regardless of the candiates, just because of the shift against them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the dems have all the momentum, thats why it seems it would be idiotic of them to go with obama or hilary bc they are probably the only 2 that the republicans have a shot of beating simply due to their race/sex.

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I don't really believe in this argument. Bush was just as polarizing in 2004. Democrats will win the blue states, Repubs the red, it comes down to the swing states.

The fact of the matter is Republicans are now on defense. Most of the major senate seats up for re-election in 2008 are currently held by Republicans. With so much at stake, I think it will be very hard for their party to keep a unified message. They could very well hold the White House in 2008, but I think race/gender will play little into that equation.

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

ZBThorton - actually edited my comment above, took out the "for no good reason".

You make a good point in that the best candidate should be put out there (not only for strategic Democrats win reasons, but also for, hey, betterment of the country).

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If Edwards were the best democratic candidate, he would be CRUSHING Obama/Hillary because of their handicaps, no?

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I have no idea but would like to hear more about this.

-Al

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

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But those are the two best democratic candidates. If Edwards were the best democratic candidate, he would be CRUSHING Obama/Hillary because of their handicaps, no?


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in your statement are "best" and "most electable" synonymous?

Re: 2008 Presidential primaries thread
 

Soiler,

I agree. I would rather see the Dems take a more electable candidate.