Re: overbet river bluff
 

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He might fold AJ.....maybe.

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This is insane. Of course he's folding AJ. I think a set calls here a large % of the time. The gray area lies in the AK/AQ type hands, and I'm really not sure what to think. Overall, I like the play, but would say that it's marginally EV+.

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sorry but if you read the thread, just about everyone who has played villain has said he will not fold AJ to this action.

Re: overbet river bluff
 

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He might fold AJ.....maybe.

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This is insane. Of course he's folding AJ. I think a set calls here a large % of the time. The gray area lies in the AK/AQ type hands, and I'm really not sure what to think. Overall, I like the play, but would say that it's marginally EV+.

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sorry but if you read the thread, just about everyone who has played villain has said he will not fold AJ to this action.

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To be honest, I think he will either put Sensei on the nuts or a missed flush draw everyime here, and could call as light as a Q or whatever. I think he would also see the overbet shove as more of a bluff.

Re: overbet river bluff
 

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i don't get why you say that you put him on a big hand

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1) its not a monster hand. But it is a strongish hand. I think he bet-calls turn with any set. I think its a big ace, whether its kicker is paired or not. He's not c/c-ing a bet that size on the turn as some sort of reverse float or something, he needs to have showdown value to continue out of position because of the implied threat of my remaining stack, and he doesnt want to lead again with hands like those because he hates to see me shove over the top (which is obviously an option for me here)

I guess its just a matter of RPS-style leveling, and without more of a history the default for most players nowadays is "call the first time and make them show you a winner".

Re: overbet river bluff
 

does it make a difference if we overbet the turn and set the river up for a less awkward all in bet?

Re: overbet river bluff
 

turn overbet doesnt really make much sense, though i imagine we could go pot-pot and get it in on river that way. i dont pot the turn like ever though cause i dont think its generally a good bet size, so that would be kinda weird to do. might look pretty strong though.

Re: overbet river bluff
 

I just think less is better. seems like you're asking a little much for him to fold two pair here, and seems like he'd fold worse than two pair to a roughly pot-sized bet.

Re: overbet river bluff
 

Meh, this is fine against someone decent, maybe bad if he is a huge calling station. Your line definitely looks strong.

Re: overbet river bluff
 

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I hate this. Esp vs josh. If he mucked it was because he had total air

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100% agree, i find it almost impossible to ever push him off anything