Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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Quote:
so you're saying we're gonna have a 1933 style german depression instead of a 1933 US style?



Germany in 1933 was not the world's richest nation, nor did it have the largest economy on earth and it was not facing a currency market where most currencies were pegged to the Mark, nor did it have foriegn governments that hoarded trillions of marks waiting to invest in its economy.

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well no credit crunch is what I meant.

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

There is no political agenda here. I can simply go to the source and actually think about it.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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There is no political agenda here. I can simply go to the source and actually think about it.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/

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what is this supposed to be a repsonse to?

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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Is it me or did you say in one post that there was contraction of the money supply underway due to the credit crunch and then refute your own arguement by stating it wasn't the case and asserting its all about the currency?

Come on, man. You can't have it both ways.

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Huh? Two completly different things. I am saying that there is a contraction in the money supply due to the credit crunch and I am saying that price action in equity markets is due to perceptions about currency manipulation not perceptions about economic fundamentals.

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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Things are much more complex and robust then you are willing to admit, because of your political agenda.

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I dont have any agenda, Im not American and I am not an Acists, Im just calling it as I see it.

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(unless they have already been offset by the Hillary effect, which I don't believe to be the case). There is a lot of upside to go before the Dems drag things down, imo.

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Your agenda is plain to see.

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I also reported the belief of one of the major investment firms itn the country that an immediate 50bp cut would be sufficient to drive the Dow up to 15,000 in short order.

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Thanks for making my arguement for me.

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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I am saying that price action in equity markets is due to perceptions about currency manipulation not perceptions about economic fundamentals.

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could you define what you mean by currency manipulation and provide evidence for your price action claim?

thanks,
Barron

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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I am saying that price action in equity markets is due to perceptions about currency manipulation not perceptions about economic fundamentals.

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could you define what you mean by currency manipulation and provide evidence for your price action claim?

thanks,
Barron

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i think he means rate cuts, but perhaps more including things like the presidential financial working group.

tobliny has been doing a great job in this thread and i want to see exsub keep trying to respond until he concedes.

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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Things are much more complex and robust then you are willing to admit, because of your political agenda.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont have any agenda, Im not American and I am not an Acists, Im just calling it as I see it.

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(unless they have already been offset by the Hillary effect, which I don't believe to be the case). There is a lot of upside to go before the Dems drag things down, imo.

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Your agenda is plain to see.

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I also reported the belief of one of the major investment firms itn the country that an immediate 50bp cut would be sufficient to drive the Dow up to 15,000 in short order.

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Thanks for making my arguement for me.

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I didnt make your argument for you.

Fed action --> increases liquidity from an artifical contraction ----> allows fundamental strength of the economy to be reflected in prices

NOT

Fed action ---->artificial liquidity---->market increases due to perception of liquidity

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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I am saying that price action in equity markets is due to perceptions about currency manipulation not perceptions about economic fundamentals.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you define what you mean by currency manipulation and provide evidence for your price action claim?

thanks,
Barron

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i think he means rate cuts, but perhaps more including things like the presidential financial working group.



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now i don't want to wake the borodog beast here but i do think that calling rate cuts "currency manipulation" is bad taste.

"currency manipulation" is what china is doing to the yuan. the entire purpose of their open market operations is SOLELY to devalue their currency in order to expand export growth.

in the US, the fed's aim is not SOLELY to devalue the US dollar. it is to increase consumptive demand and reduce borrowing costs and smooth out the money markets. the effect on the currency is ancillary and certainly not the main thrust of the policy.

in fact, i'd say the currency situation is the lever that keeps the fed in check right now since ben can't lower rates too much otherwise inflationary pressures would simply be too much.

to call the fed's rate cuts "currency manipulation" imo is just poor taste. the reason is that "currency manipulation" has a very specific meaning too it which is not the case at this point.

in the 1980s while the USD was moving too high (and then too low) there was definite "currency manipulation" with the stated goal of having the dollar reach a certain point. there is no such goal here and the purpose of the fed's actions is clearly to spur the US economy, not reduce the value of the dollar.

as i've mentioned before, a 50% increase in exports means less to GDP growth than a 10% increase in domestic consumption.

Barron

Re: The differences between 1929 and Today
 

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in the US, the fed's aim is not SOLELY to devalue the US dollar. it is to increase consumptive demand and reduce borrowing costs and smooth out the money markets. the effect on the currency is ancillary and certainly not the main thrust of the policy.

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the means of them achieving any of those goals cannot occur without the currency effects. its not unreasonable to say the currency is manipulated so these goals can be achieved.

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in fact, i'd say the currency situation is the lever that keeps the fed in check right now since ben can't lower rates too much otherwise inflationary pressures would simply be too much.

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this is the joke of keynesian theory. They can't do one without the other so the idea of the fed having a duel mandate is ridiculous. Its like telling someone to turn left and right at the exact same time.

stagflation again, unfortunately, will need to reveal the ineffectiveness of this non-sense.