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-   -   *** Official August - October Chatter Thread *** (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=482905)

Utah 11-01-2007 03:43 PM

Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Al Gore to announce he is running by November 1st. No -600. $300 to win $50

[/ QUOTE ]
Ship it. Still gotta love bodog.

Rustjive 11-01-2007 11:33 PM

Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***
 
EV question (sort of) regarding Pleaser bets - non-wong teasers and parlays are more -EV than straight wagers, however, not all teasers are created equal. Teasers across the 0 are just awful, whereas wong-ian teasers are +EV.

Now does the same logic apply to pleaser bets? More specifically, is 'pleasing' across the 0 (from +3 to -3, for example) a great 'please'? 3 team pleasers, for example, as WSEX offers them, are -6, $1700/$100. I suspect Pinnacle's point system would give me a quick and dirty answer (where you can work out the money line from the points and see if you finish out ahead, then give a little....fudge factor for the fact that you're going across the zero), but I haven't looked at it.

mogwai316 11-01-2007 11:47 PM

Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***
 
The problem with pleasing from +3 to -3 is that you're still moving off of a 3 and onto a 3. The push frequencies for 0, 1, and 2 are really low but the frequency for 3 is so high that it counteracts it. I guess your best bet here would be to please across whichever 6 point inclusive range has the lowest total push frequency. If you had a really huge line, like 24 or greater, that would be ideal, but the chances of two such lines occurring in the same week are obviously extremely low. It looks like the best 6 point inclusive range for realistic lines is [7.5,13.5]. The only bad number you're crossing is 10 (4.9% push), and all the other numbers are 2.2% or less. I'd have to do the math to figure out whether such a pleaser would be +EV, but it seems possible.

mogwai316 11-02-2007 12:08 AM

Re: *** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***
 
Hmm, quick math shows that this is actually really bad. If the pleaser pays 6:1, then you need both games to win with prob. > ~38%. Even in the best case, with both games going from +7.5 to +13.5, each games winning prob. goes from 50% to about 29%. Somebody can double-check me on this, but it looks like these bets are even more -EV than I thought.

For 3 teams at 17:1 it works out about the same. You still need each team to have a winning % > 38%, which just isn't going to be possible in the NFL.

It might be worth looking into the numbers for college, where you have more large spreads and the push frequencies for the key numbers are lower.


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