Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
The probabilities ought to be additive.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not correct.

Each tournament is an independent event. Just because you didn't win 179 in a row doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win #180.

As with any other grouping of independent events you have to calculate the risk of not winning one specific tournament:

NW(1) = (180 - 1)/180 = 179/180 = 0.9944444 ....

From there you can calculate the risk of not winning any of X tournaments:

NW(X) = NW(1) raised to the power X = NW(1) * ... * NW(1) (that reads: NW(1) multiplied with itself X times).

This gives us the chance of winning (at least) one out of X tournaments:

CW = 1 - NW(X)

We're looking for the number of (random outcome) 180/$4.40 to play to have exactly 50% chance of winning one:

X = log(0.5) / log(NW(1)) = 124.4

So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The probabilities ought to be additive.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not correct.

Each tournament is an independent event.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I'm an idiot. U win.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

if my math teacher would have told me that math could help me in poker, I would have actually paid attention.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strife--

You said you'd be able to play for like >40 hours, many of which are during peak hours. I took pen to paper and estimated the probability that you'd win one. It was higher than I'd previously guessed, but lower than I thought you'd think. (You'd talked like it was a certainty.) And, of course, I was willing to move from the 7-1 line.

--Nate

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strife--

You said you'd be able to play for like >40 hours, many of which are during peak hours. I took pen to paper and estimated the probability that you'd win one. It was higher than I'd previously guessed, but lower than I thought you'd think. (You'd talked like it was a certainty.) And, of course, I was willing to move from the 7-1 line.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you factor in how difficult it is to 12 table and how difficult it is to play after 12 hours? Fatigue and concentration is gonna suck hardcore if I'm doing this.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL - If you're going to try to get the betting line to shift, you should be a bit more subtle than this... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

He's already wussed out even though everybody has pretty much proved what the odds are... I'd still love to get action at 2:1 instead of GIVING 7:1 for god sakes

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

Strife--

The terms of the bet were different than they were on the day I thought you'd be able to play for way less time. I'd still happily go back in time to Wednesday or whatever and give you action at a better price.

Anyway, look, it's an arithmetic fact that if you're not terrible and you're willing to stay awake for 40 hours, you've a big favorite to win one of them. I thought that you still thought you were a total lock, so maybe there was some room for disagreement and thus a bet. Turns out you don't.

Looks like there is in fact no such room. But if you want to turn this into a HU play-until-one-of-us-wins thing, let me know.

--Nate

Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like there is in fact no such room. But if you want to turn this into a HU play-until-one-of-us-wins thing, let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be awesome.

I've got $50 that says Nate wins.

OT