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-   -   How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing poker? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555619)

fsuplayer 11-27-2007 09:54 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO a lot of the naysayers here just cant fathom people winning 250k because it's absurd to them that someone else can be winning more $ than them.

It's simply outrageous how many people that I know personally will make 250k+ this year. And I pretty much stay out of the poker community and go about my own business. I dont know anything about tourney players, dont have any 2p2 friends, and dont play live.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot of people are saying it because everyone just makes assumptions based on winning at rate which is not realisitic for 99. something percent of people, playing a number of hands which is not realistic for 99.something percent of people. Serious question, how many do you think you know who will clear 250k? Several of the skeptics here are actually people who do it but also just know well enough that there is a reason every single big datamine produces exponetially less winners of this magnitidue than everyone percieves there to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

i liked your post and agree with it, but my god, "99. something percent"(wtf??) is still tilting me.

Jeffmet3 11-27-2007 10:34 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
The kind of people who make the 250k are either

a) people who run good in the 1kNL+ games
b) people with redargoe'esque work ethic in 3/6 through 10/20
c) people who grind hard in the HU games, 2/4 through 5/10
d) people with a tournament score(s)

obviously im in category d

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

anyone winning 2ptbb+ at 5/10 is easily clearing $250k in a year. and people beating 10/20nl are doing it as well.

chisness 11-27-2007 10:38 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
you think there are a lot of 5-10 players who win at >2 and play >600k hands/yr?

NNNNOOOOONAN 11-27-2007 10:39 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
whenever a thread comes up dealing with variance, winrates, total wins and or losses, count me in for going straight to ggbman's posts.

markksman 11-27-2007 10:53 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you belive everything that everyone tells you, 95% of the people who post here.

[/ QUOTE ]

People here love odds.

Most people who play poker lose.

If someone tells you they win at poker, the odds are they are lying. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Moemar 11-27-2007 11:09 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
good question

Moemar 11-27-2007 11:09 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
what was the consensus?

Gobias Ind. 11-27-2007 11:39 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]









I said Top, Top!.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gobias Ind. 11-27-2007 11:54 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
whenever a thread comes up dealing with variance, winrates, total wins and or losses, count me in for going straight to ggbman's posts.

[/ QUOTE ]


same here, but its really for that french girl dancing in his goddamn avatar. it really is the antithesis of Tuq's avatar.

XxGeneralxX 11-28-2007 12:16 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
Someone find the thread from last year asking the same thing

Thx.

[/ QUOTE ]dude. this thread comes up like atleast once a month.

IF this question involved any sort of consistency, the number would be VERY low. But if your just asking the # of people clearing 250k profit in this next year the number would be VERY high.

teddyFBI 11-28-2007 12:16 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The kind of people who make the 250k are either

a) people who run good in the 1kNL+ games
b) people with redargoe'esque work ethic in 3/6 through 10/20
c) people who grind hard in the HU games, 2/4 through 5/10
d) people with a tournament score(s)

obviously im in category d

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

anyone winning 2ptbb+ at 5/10 is easily clearing $250k in a year. and people beating 10/20nl are doing it as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

625,000 is a [censored]-ton of hands.

In fact, here's a dumb prop-bet-type Q that might infuse this old topic with a little new life:

Which # is greater:
<font color="blue">
A) The number of online cash game players who will clear $1,000,000 in 2007 (cash games only, no donkaments), or
B) The number of players who will play more than 1,000,000 cash game hands this year.
</font>

I say A) in a rout.

SABR42 11-28-2007 12:24 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">
A) The number of online cash game players who will clear $1,000,000 in 2007 (cash games only, no donkaments), or
B) The number of players who will play more than 1,000,000 cash game hands this year.[/b]</font>

I say A) in a rout.

[/ QUOTE ]
B and it's not even close. There's a shitton of low limit grinders who play more than 80K hands a month, especially at full ring.

Victor 11-28-2007 12:32 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
i won't.

[/ QUOTE ]

me either. sadly i was halfway there in march.

Adebisi 11-28-2007 01:01 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing poker?
 
There's absolutely no chance it's less than 100. There are probably more than 2 dozen players that semi-regularly play in games where they can swing +/- 250k in a single session. I think it's probably around 1000 for strictly cash players, and 2000+ if tournaments are included.

RikaKazak 11-28-2007 01:26 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
I've already cleared over $250K JUST at 2/4 and 3/6 NL full ring. That's not counting my 6 max play or donkaments or live play (and I'm up in all ldo)

I think the guys saying you "must play 5/10+ or have insane work ethic" are just plain wrong.

teddyFBI 11-28-2007 01:45 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">
A) The number of online cash game players who will clear $1,000,000 in 2007 (cash games only, no donkaments), or
B) The number of players who will play more than 1,000,000 cash game hands this year.[/b]</font>

I say A) in a rout.

[/ QUOTE ]
B and it's not even close. There's a shitton of low limit grinders who play more than 80K hands a month, especially at full ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think I disagree, or at least I think it's closer than you make it out to be. 2,800 hands / day every single day of the year is a G-R-I-N-D. When I was grinding out some Party Points thing that required a ton of hands a few years back, I struggled to average 500 hands / hour over the course of a playing day. (granted I'm anal about table selection.) 6 hours / day of that every single day of the year is an absolute ton, and would take a lot of mental fortitude. I think the number for A) is between 100 and 200. If the number for B) is larger than that, I don't think it's by a whole lot...
(how many hands -- approx -- does it take to achieve supernova at Stars?...that might give us a clue)

SABR42 11-28-2007 01:53 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">
A) The number of online cash game players who will clear $1,000,000 in 2007 (cash games only, no donkaments), or
B) The number of players who will play more than 1,000,000 cash game hands this year.</font>

I say A) in a rout.

[/ QUOTE ]
B and it's not even close. There's a shitton of low limit grinders who play more than 80K hands a month, especially at full ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think I disagree, or at least I think it's closer than you make it out to be. 2,800 hands / day every single day of the year is a G-R-I-N-D. When I was grinding out some Party Points thing that required a ton of hands a few years back, I struggled to average 500 hands / hour over the course of a playing day. (granted I'm anal about table selection.) 6 hours / day of that every single day of the year is an absolute ton, and would take a lot of mental fortitude. I think the number for A) is between 100 and 200. If the number for B) is larger than that, I don't think it's by a whole lot...
(how many hands -- approx -- does it take to achieve supernova at Stars?...that might give us a clue)

[/ QUOTE ]
12-tabling low limits for 30-40 hours a week is a ton of hands. There's a ton of people who do just that.

I'm not one of them, but I play with them on a regular basis.

mookboi 11-28-2007 02:09 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
2,800 hands / day every single day of the year is like 2 hrs of playing

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

SABR42 is right. There are a few 50NL regs who easily clear 150K hands/month. Table selection down here is pretty easy too.

teddyFBI 11-28-2007 02:16 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
1400 hands / hr??!
guess i was way out of my element.

I don't care to do the math, but what does a winning 50NL regular who plays 150,000 hands / month make in such a month?

EDIT: alright, even allowing for a few of these ridiculous grinders, you still think the number of players who will clear 1M hands this year is several hundred or more?

SABR42 11-28-2007 02:18 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care to do the math, but what does a winning 50NL regular who plays 150,000 hands / month make in such a month?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably not too much, or else they would have moved up...

But there are regs who stay at 100 or 200NL and don't move up.

soah 11-28-2007 02:19 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
1400 hands / hr??!
guess i was way out of my element.

I don't care to do the math, but what does a winning 50NL regular who plays 150,000 hands / month make in such a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

about $60 and 48247523 FPPs I think.

mookboi 11-28-2007 02:21 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
Best month was like 6-7K. Worst like 2K. Time for another shot at 100NL soon [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

And maybe 1400 was a bit too high to be true. 12tabling ya can avg a bit over 1K/hr. I'm sure 12/10 nits like Soldatti and piscogay could easily do 16+ tables.

soah 11-28-2007 02:23 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
I've already cleared over $250K JUST at 2/4 and 3/6 NL full ring. That's not counting my 6 max play or donkaments or live play (and I'm up in all ldo)

I think the guys saying you "must play 5/10+ or have insane work ethic" are just plain wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

and how many hours have you put in? at 5 ptbb/100 that's about 500k hands... which is certainly possible but there are VERY FEW players that can maintain 5 ptbb/100... especially when considering that to play that many hands you will be multitabling during off-peak hours etc

Pete H 11-28-2007 03:13 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
Anyone who makes 10€/hr?

LucidDream 11-28-2007 03:34 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've already cleared over $250K JUST at 2/4 and 3/6 NL full ring. That's not counting my 6 max play or donkaments or live play (and I'm up in all ldo)

I think the guys saying you "must play 5/10+ or have insane work ethic" are just plain wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

and how many hours have you put in? at 5 ptbb/100 that's about 500k hands... which is certainly possible but there are VERY FEW players that can maintain 5 ptbb/100... especially when considering that to play that many hands you will be multitabling during off-peak hours etc

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, plz post some stats w/ that rika if you dont mind. hands, ptbb/100, hours, mt ratio would be the interesting ones.

DanielDayLewis 11-28-2007 04:41 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
I was friends with a guy who worked for Bodog and could see player statistics. He said basicly noone made &gt;$250K per year on that site.

I think a good midstakes grinder can run at 5PTB/100 with almost no table selection at 2/4 and probably 4/100 at 3/6.

1000-2000 sounds about right to me. I think lots of the $25/50+ guys play on multiple sites so there are probably less of them then we think but they are making more like $1M+ per year. Count tourney donks too... just winning the Sunday Million is like $250K right? probably a lot of people made +$250K this year that are -EV at 1/2NL.

Python49 11-28-2007 05:46 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
Even a 12 tabling 1/2nl player with a weak winrate could clear 250k.

If he plays just 5 hours a day (3 when waking up, 2 before bed, not that hard....still leaves him like 10 hours in the day to do whatever). That's 180k hands a month.

180k hands a month with a winrate of even 2ptbb/100 = $14,400 in profit at the tables. Rakeback on FTP for example would be 27%, making his rakeback per month $7k for net profit per month of $21,400.

Comes out to $256k a year. Might seem far fetched on the surface but playing 5 hours a day on avg if you're serious about the game isn't all that far fetched.

So someoen 6 tabling at 2/4 nl with a decent winrate shouldn't be having a hard time clearing 250k. Guess the question though is how common is it to have a decent winrate at 2/4nl.

sdfsdf 11-28-2007 05:56 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
lol, there isnt a single 1/2 player who has made $250k in a year

Rainclouds 11-28-2007 08:37 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
I even doubt if there is a single player who plays 180k hands a month and wins.

mr.bum 11-28-2007 08:46 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
lol, there isnt a single 1/2 player who has made $250k in a year

[/ QUOTE ]
Wana bet?

ben wb 11-28-2007 08:46 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
Even a 12 tabling 1/2nl player with a weak winrate could clear 250k.

If he plays just 5 hours a day (3 when waking up, 2 before bed, not that hard....still leaves him like 10 hours in the day to do whatever). That's 180k hands a month.

180k hands a month with a winrate of even 2ptbb/100 = $14,400 in profit at the tables. Rakeback on FTP for example would be 27%, making his rakeback per month $7k for net profit per month of $21,400.

Comes out to $256k a year. Might seem far fetched on the surface but playing 5 hours a day on avg if you're serious about the game isn't all that far fetched.

So someoen 6 tabling at 2/4 nl with a decent winrate shouldn't be having a hard time clearing 250k. Guess the question though is how common is it to have a decent winrate at 2/4nl.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm pretty sure that no-one has made more than $250k from just pokerstars 6max 2/4 nl this year for example. A handful might be close, especially if you include rakeback. There will be a few who play 2/4 nl who have made $250k but not just from 2/4 nl.

Rainclouds 11-28-2007 10:35 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
I think there is a difference between what's possible and what people actually do.

Earlier in this thread I claimed that some 2/4 NLHE HU players could clear 250K this year and someone else replied that players who are capable of doing that would move up, which I think is a valid point.

Certainly, it is possible to win 250K at 2/4 nl and some sick human being could possibly do it at 1/2 nl but anyone who is capable of doing it, will NOT do it, because they will move up and win more there.

Rainclouds 11-28-2007 10:37 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
And to add to that, most players don't stick to one limit for a whole year, especially winning players move up a couple of times and most players mix up their limits, for instance playing a variety of 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 tables over the month.

jogsxyz 11-28-2007 11:15 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
Net or gross earnings? A few players with over $500,000 official earnings may in fact be net losers. Partners are getting a cut of their action.

Gildwulf 11-28-2007 11:23 AM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
Smart Money on here makes close to half a mil a year by 12 tabling 1/2 FR. So i suppose a lot of ppl are making 1/4 mil.

[/ QUOTE ]

wait...what? link?

teddyFBI 11-28-2007 12:24 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Smart Money on here makes close to half a mil a year by 12 tabling 1/2 FR. So i suppose a lot of ppl are making 1/4 mil.

[/ QUOTE ]

wait...what? link?

[/ QUOTE ]

Running at 5 PTBB, that's 2.5 Mil hands this year, so i'm gonna go ahead and call shenanigans.

markksman 11-28-2007 01:30 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]


Running at 5 PTBB, that's 2.5 Mil hands this year, so i'm gonna go ahead and call shenanigans.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is only 4.8 hands a minute for every minute of the entire year.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

thatpfunk 11-28-2007 03:56 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
And to add to that, most players don't stick to one limit for a whole year, especially winning players move up a couple of times and most players mix up their limits, for instance playing a variety of 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 tables over the month.

[/ QUOTE ]

and a lot of those winning players also get killed when they move up (just runing bad, tougher games, etc) and people under estimate how much this happens. there are WAY more players who would make $250k this if they hadn't taken a shot here and there, etc.

and as for people who are "crushing" but aren't apart of 2p2 or any online community... i just dont believe the majority of them.

show me datamines.

silver book 11-28-2007 04:12 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing pok
 
[ QUOTE ]
There's at least 25+ that I know of personally in Vancouver. Extrapolating that, 2000+ plus seems reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

25 in a canadian city translates to 23-24 in an american city right?

Hollywade 11-28-2007 04:17 PM

Re: How many people will make more than $250,000 this year playing poker?
 
My guess was 100-1,000 and I'm pissed to not be one of them.


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