Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
sagarin predictor is still bayesian = garbage in this case

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this possible in week 6?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I was a bit late. These are my bets so far, all placed during past 2 hours.

Florida State -5½ (-110) The Greek
Miami Florida (-2.5) -116 (Pinnacle) *w/ ½ point buy
TENNESSEE U -7-110 Cris
Arkansas Spread -2½ -110 Bet Jamaica

The ones above all 1u, the one below is 1/2u

Arizona U (+22) vs USC for Game -112 Pinnacle

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

just curious if any of you had any ideas about uva vs. uconn. just a uva fan, not gonna bet it, just trying to get a better feel for our chance at winning.

its uva -3 or -3.5 at most places right now.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe just fade them on the road and back them at home.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

This week's Auburn analysis if anyone is interested:

Auburn @ Arkansas -2.5/3

This game is a really good matchup for Arkansas. Auburn has really struggled recently against physical running teams (Mississippi State, Arkansas '06.) On top of that, we have had a lot of attrition in our LB corp. Before the season our starters were Trahan, Gandy, and Blackmon. Our top backups were Johnson and Stevens. Trahan and Gandy are gone for the year. Blackmon and Johnson have both missed several games (neither played against Vandy.) We have gotten by against spread offenses (Florida, Vandy) without getting exposed. Unfortunately, LBs will be very important against Arkansas. Blackmon and Johnson may play, but along with Quentin Groves (DE), they won't be 100%. Another leader of our D, safety Aairon Savage, missed the Vandy game. It all adds up to a long night trying to stop McFadden and Jones, who each had 100 yards against Auburn last year as they bullied our defense. Also, Tuberville grew up Arkansas and maybe that has something to do with the fact that he is 4-4 against them with some bad losses. (If 4-4 doesn't sound that bad, consider that Tuberville only has a losing record against one SEC coach. Ron Zook was 1-0 against him at Florida.)

So all signs point to Arkansas in the matchups. However, Auburn seems to be on a mission right now. Their win over Vandy was extremely focused. It was machine-like. The offense is running on all cylinders and our running game looks phenomenal. Tate and Fannin have improved a LOT since the MSU game and the addition of Lester makes us a lot better. Vandy's offense looked pathetic Saturday, but you still have to be impressed with the way Auburn moved the ball on their defense. In addition, Auburn has lost 1 road game since 2003 and that was in OT at LSU. Brandon Cox is 8-1 on the road. All of his WTF games have been at home for whatever reason. Who knows how the turmoil at Arkansas will affect them this game, but I could see it being a blowout either way, or a great finish that turns on a bounce of the ball.

Unless I have a change of heart I am passing on the spread and going OVER the total assuming it is reasonable (less than 50.)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe just fade them on the road and back them at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the proper analysis. Groh's UVA teams have been at least 2 TD's better at home, lines do not reflect this. I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that had a bigger difference between home and road performance over that span.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If Tennessee is just -7, it'll be my play of the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play of the year time! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Put 3u on it today.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe just fade them on the road and back them at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the proper analysis. Groh's UVA teams have been at least 2 TD's better at home, lines do not reflect this. I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that had a bigger difference between home and road performance over that span.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to admit that when I first chose a few of MT2R's picks to follow I had included UVA. But when I went to place the bet, the siren from Kill Bill went off in my head. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
This week's Auburn analysis if anyone is interested:

Auburn @ Arkansas -2.5/3

This game is a really good matchup for Arkansas. Auburn has really struggled recently against physical running teams (Mississippi State, Arkansas '06.) On top of that, we have had a lot of attrition in our LB corp. Before the season our starters were Trahan, Gandy, and Blackmon. Our top backups were Johnson and Stevens. Trahan and Gandy are gone for the year. Blackmon and Johnson have both missed several games (neither played against Vandy.) We have gotten by against spread offenses (Florida, Vandy) without getting exposed. Unfortunately, LBs will be very important against Arkansas. Blackmon and Johnson may play, but along with Quentin Groves (DE), they won't be 100%. Another leader of our D, safety Aairon Savage, missed the Vandy game. It all adds up to a long night trying to stop McFadden and Jones, who each had 100 yards against Auburn last year as they bullied our defense. Also, Tuberville grew up Arkansas and maybe that has something to do with the fact that he is 4-4 against them with some bad losses. (If 4-4 doesn't sound that bad, consider that Tuberville only has a losing record against one SEC coach. Ron Zook was 1-0 against him at Florida.)

So all signs point to Arkansas in the matchups. However, Auburn seems to be on a mission right now. Their win over Vandy was extremely focused. It was machine-like. The offense is running on all cylinders and our running game looks phenomenal. Tate and Fannin have improved a LOT since the MSU game and the addition of Lester makes us a lot better. Vandy's offense looked pathetic Saturday, but you still have to be impressed with the way Auburn moved the ball on their defense. In addition, Auburn has lost 1 road game since 2003 and that was in OT at LSU. Brandon Cox is 8-1 on the road. All of his WTF games have been at home for whatever reason. Who knows how the turmoil at Arkansas will affect them this game, but I could see it being a blowout either way, or a great finish that turns on a bounce of the ball.

Unless I have a change of heart I am passing on the spread and going OVER the total assuming it is reasonable (less than 50.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Austigers, I have followed AU very closely for more than a decade. I completely agree with his analysis, which is why I recommend passing on this game, with one caveat. When Auburn struggles against physical running teams, and Arkansas in particular, the bad news starts early in the game and never abates. If I had the opportunity to watch each offense for one series, and then pick a side, I honestly feel that I would have a huge edge. For this reason, I expect that any value in this game will be w/r/t the second half line. If Arkansas has 150-200 yards rushing in the first half, you can rest assured that they will have 150-200 yards rushing in the second half. In other words, wait until half, and then consider Arky -1 in the 2H, or the total if the situation (i.e. AU can't stop the run) seems right.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

with the difficulties the razorbacks must deal with off the field, their inability to string together 3, let alone 4 successive quarters of football, and auburn's loss last year, which may give the tigers cause for revenge, this game is not too inaccesible a bet.

tlt

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

[/ QUOTE ]

i saw you put 2.5 on UVA vs. middle tenn... made me cringe.

i'd imagine uva is going to roll vs. uconn, its just so hard to tell how decent the big east teams are, and uva isn't exactly a model of consistency either.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

POTW: Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 2u to win 2u

I will likely add units, but there is a chance I can get the 3 again.

I know...road fave that is close to my heart....I just cannot pass up the pick.

Iowa is vastly overrated by the genral public and there has not been enough adjustment back (witness their 1-10 ATS record last year and 3-3 this year so far while losing 8 big11ten games in a row SU, including falling way short the past 2 weeks despite Iowa's +7 TO margin on the year). They cannot run the ball and their passing attack is below average. Iowa is averaging 3.3 ypc! The Illini defense is allowing 3.0 ypc! Illinois just stuffed the run v both Penn St and Wisconsin. Illinois turned both those teams into one-dimensional passing attacks. I was at the Illinois game and then reviewed the game on DVR. The last game v Wisconsin was one of the best displays I've ever seen of hard-hitting by a defense. Wisconsin players were getting layed out on a regular basis. Iowa was held to 59 net rushing yards @ Wisconsin and 48 @ Penn St. The Illini run defense is very comparable and probably slightly better than those other two teams, though it would be tough to duplicate the number of sacks both teams put on the Hawkeyes. It seems that for the third week in a row, the Illini will make their opponent go to something they are uncomfortable with and try to win the game through the air. Now, Penn St and Wisconsin were able to get some points because they have excellent overall receiving corps (that TE for Wisconsin is AA quality). Iowa, through suspensions and injury, have very little on the outside to threaten anyone. The Hawkeyes leading 2 receivers are redshirt freshman who were #50 or below at their position in recruiting rankings and only have 15 catches through 6 games (2.5 per game). I do see Iowa's TE, Moeaki, having some success as it seems TEs over the middle have been the thing the Illini D will give up. Moeaki has 14 catches and 3 TDs through 6 games. Iowa's offense should be better this year if one looked at the talent of players in place. For some reason, it hasn't gelled--IMO, it's lack of playmakers.

On the other side of the ball, Illinois has no deep passing attack. I have to say after a few weeks that I don't think that matters. I've made the comparison before and continue to, Illinois is a slightly worse version of the West Virginia offense. Mendenhall is ridic talented-- patient, quick, power, speed to go all the way. Juice is getting better with every game. He played nearly perfect in the last outing. He has gotten real good at knowing which of the run options he should go with. He had three runs for 24 yards last week. He has not been turning the ball over. McGee has shown himself to be a capable backup when Juice goes down. While McGee doesn't hold onto the ball as well, he is quicker and can turn the 20 yard runs into 45 yard ones. Arrelious Benn is at full speed and ready to play after a shoulder he reinjured stiff arming a Wisconsin defender. He's a highlight reel on the field and reminds many of Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson with his combination of quickness and power. Everyone knows Illinois is run, run, run, yet they still have success doing it. After leading the big11ten in rushing last year, the Illini are doing it again this year. The Illini currently average 5.7 ypc for over 261 ypg on the ground. Iowa's rush defense looked good early and is only giving up 3.0ypc. However, it turns out that was likely due to playing NIU, Syracuse, and Iowa St. In 2 of their last 3 games, the Hawkeyes were battered on the ground (the only game they weren't was when Kellen Lewis dropped 360 on them through the air at Kinnick stadium in a 38-20 Indiana win). Penn St, whose rush game looked very poor @ Michigan and @ Illinois, had 256 yards on 50 carries v the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin had 3 disasterous sacks v Iowa that brought their total down, but ran the ball for nearly 200 yards on the other 45 carries. However, Illinois brings a different type of run attack out of the shotgun spread read option. It should be noted that Iowa allowed N'western (very similar attack to Illinois) 225 yards on 41 carries near the end of last season and Purdue (different type of shotgun spread) had 202 yards on 36 carries last season. Also of note is that Mike Klinkenborg, Iowa's talented MLB, had a concussion in the last game. He is expected to play, but one wonders how many hits he can take. Trust me, it takes a physical MLB to stand-up v the Illinois rush attack.


The negative I see is that Iowa did beat Illinois 24-7 in Champaign early last season. The two teams have gone in very different directions since then, but the game still sticks in the back of my head. Iowa benefitted from terrible Illinois punting and got far enough ahead that it forced Illinois to pass the ball, which is a disaster for Illinois (12 of 39 in that game). Iowa got to Juice 3 times and was +3 on the turnovers. Iowa's offense was very mediocre in Champaign, but good defense and great field position led the way to victory for the Hawkeyes.

One interesting thing of note is that Iowa is probably the school Illinois hates most. Illinois has owned the alltime series in both football and basketball. There was bad enough blood in the late 50s that Iowa and Illinois didn't play each other in football for over a decade despite being in the same conference after an on field riot. Iowa's close ties with the NCAA and outright fabricated tattle-tale to the NCAA has resulted in numerous Illinois probations and a long history of bitter relations. Of late, Iowa has become the school for kids who cannot get into Illinois as many Chicagoland western suburban students fill the Iowa campus after their ACT/GPA doesn't measure up to Urbana-Champaign standards. What impact this has on a mainly nationally recruited football team is debatable. I do think it does mitigate Illinois overlooking the Hawkeyes to some extent, which is a concern of some.

Oh yeah...some will point out how good Ferentz is at home and whatnot (24-10 home fave ATS and 6-4-1 home dog ATS). Ummm...that fell apart beginning last season. The Hawkeyes are only 2-6 ATS at home since the beginning of last year.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I would have killed for my bet on Illinois -1.5 to have been made 3 seconds earlier. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Only 3 picks so far. All to win 1 unit of course, at dime odds:

Washington +12.5
Miami -2
Baylor +25.5

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

My early picks

Illinois -3 -110 to win 2 units
Central Mich -11 -110 to win 1 unit
UAB -3 -115 to win 1 unit

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

leaning Miami -2 and UNC +6.5 right now, gonna wait and hope for a better line for today though.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Tennesse -7 1 Unit
Boston College -14 2 Units
Illinois -3.5 2 Units
FSU -5.5 1 Unit
Miami -2.5 1 Unit
S. Carolina -6.5 2 Units
E. Carolina +2 1 Unit
Georgia -7 1 Unit

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

San Jose St. +19 2 units
Illinois -3.5 2 units

Purdue +6 1 unit
Cincy -10.5 1u
Ole Miss +7 1u
Buffalo -3.5 1u
Stanford +6 1u
Auburn +3 1u
Indiana +5.5 1u
BYU -10.5 1u
Mid Tenn. +4.5 1u

Navy +4.5 0.5u
Wake +7 0.5u
Mizzou +11 0.5u
ECU +2 0.5u

YTD 7-5 +4.5 units

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

damn...lost a half point on this one... still love it long-time

Indiana +5 @ MSU bet 3.15u to win 3u

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is also doubtful. Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

So far I have:
Rutgers -16.5 2u
Va Tech -13 1u
Miami -2.5 1u
Tenn -7 1u
Ill -3 -125 1u
Utah -13.5 .5u

Games I'm interested in(feedback welcome)
Minn +7
Georgia -7
Baylor +25.5
Texas -16
Air Force +4
Missouri +10.5
Washington +12

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

kdog- You're betting on one home team out of 13 games. Generally, that is not a good idea. (Although I do like many of those picks; Miami, Tenn, Ill, UGA, Baylor, Wash)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
So far I have:
Rutgers -16.5 2u
Va Tech -13 1u
Miami -2.5 1u
Tenn -7 1u
Ill -3 -125 1u
Utah -13.5 .5u

Games I'm interested in(feedback welcome)
Minn +7
Georgia -7
Baylor +25.5
Texas -16
Air Force +4
Missouri +10.5
Washington +12

[/ QUOTE ]


Dont take Minnesota, ever!! The worst defense in the world. When playing Minnesota take the overs.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is out for remainder of the year with hamstring injury . Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just heard that this a.m.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wisky +6.5
Illini -2.5 both 1u

BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u
Ark -2.5 for 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

undoing Wisky at PSU -6.5/-105, payin' the vig.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
kdog- You're betting on one home team out of 13 games. Generally, that is not a good idea. (Although I do like many of those picks; Miami, Tenn, Ill, UGA, Baylor, Wash

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right Austiger that is too many roadies. Notice that I have only bet 6 teams so far and 2 are at home(Miami and Utah)(and they're all chalk???). Of those other 7 I will probably bet no more than two(AF & Wash). I will also be on Notre Dame if the spread crosses 14. Barring any major moves that will be it for me except for tailing Reggie from The Fellas Forum's stronger picks when he finalizes his card. He's a LOT better than me with the mid majors. Check him out.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Well, even though I said I wasn't going to bet any more games after last week, I've still kind of been eying the lines, and I may bet a couple games on a purely recreational basis.

My leans this week are:
Iowa +3.5
TCU -6
Kentucky +9
Notre Dame +13.5
OU/Mizz over 61

Out of those, Iowa +3.5's the one I like best, as it seems like everyone's piling on the Illini this week and they've been getting a lot of media attention for being "underrated" and underranked after their last two wins.

The fact that they're only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who's 0-3 in conference seems to reflect the sharps backing Iowa. Also, they're only favored by 2 according to Sagarin which while still bayesian is only lightly impacted by preseason rankings at this point of the season and is only impacted by them at all because Sagarin obviously has found including them at this point of the season makes the rankings more accurate. Also, Iowa had their best defensive game of the year against a Wisconsin team that also loves to run the ball much like Illinois.

Add in the obvious letdown factor with Illinois being a young team that's not used to success and could very easily overlook an 0-3 team on the road and I really think that Iowa should keep this close if not win outright. I may move money to a book with first half lines for this game as I think Iowa has a much better chance to outplay Illinois in the first half when the Illini don't really have their heads in the game than they do down the stretch if the Illini are trailing since Illinois is the more talented team.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is out for remainder of the year with hamstring injury . Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]


Just heard that this a.m.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're over-reacting: hill is listed as probable; although swann is out, jefferson has been in the rotation, and can catch the deep ball.

people are overestimating penn state's talent: they are, as they always are, SLOW. and i mean, SLOW. true, they play defense fairly well, but is that enough? wisconsin, but for turning the ball over twice in succession on the pass, dominated an illinois defense incapable of handling an air game (re: mizzou game against illinois, where missouri fell asleep after scoring at will; that game was not even close, except for the score)--and i'm not convinced penn st. can, either. penn has a solid set of line backers (as always), but while good line backing can function well enough against the Big Ten's run first and last mentality, wisconsin CAN throw, has the arsenal in place to throw, and WILL throw. the big ten still hasn't entered the modern era offensively, in which throwing is considered a viable aspect of the game. i think the badger's will have to resort to the air and are planning to do so.

also, wisconsin handled the illini's rushing attack fairly well, if one overlooks the first quarter, where the bulk of the rushing yards were forfeited, and the offense fielded by penn is much less dynamic and talented than illini's. i expect wisconsin's front to look much better here than in the illinois game.

all in all, i would say, wisconsin wins this match-up (did i mention, penn st. is SLOW?), in crappy-valley, AT LEAST 45% of the time. at +230 wisconsin is a great play.

tlt

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Notre Dame +13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

*pukes*

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Iowa's so awful I have to take Illinois -3 here. They might be worse than Minnesota even (both are clearly the worst two big 10 squads this year).

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

NAVY +4 (-106) @ Pitt 1.06u to win 1.0u 5Dimes

Florida St @ WAKE +6 (-105) 1.05u to win 1.0u SIA

YTD: 1-2 -1.12 units

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is out for remainder of the year with hamstring injury . Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]


Just heard that this a.m.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're over-reacting: hill is listed as probable; although swann is out, jefferson has been in the rotation, and can catch the deep ball.

people are overestimating penn state's talent: they are, as they always are, SLOW. and i mean, SLOW. true, they play defense fairly well, but is that enough? wisconsin, but for turning the ball over twice in succession on the pass, dominated an illinois defense incapable of handling an air game (re: mizzou game against illinois, where missouri fell asleep after scoring at will; that game was not even close, except for the score)--and i'm not convinced penn st. can, either. penn has a solid set of line backers (as always), but while good line backing can function well enough against the Big Ten's run first and last mentality, wisconsin CAN throw, has the arsenal in place to throw, and WILL throw. the big ten still hasn't entered the modern era offensively, in which throwing is considered a viable aspect of the game. i think the badger's will have to resort to the air and are planning to do so.

also, wisconsin handled the illini's rushing attack fairly well, if one overlooks the first quarter, where the bulk of the rushing yards were forfeited, and the offense fielded by penn is much less dynamic and talented than illini's. i expect wisconsin's front to look much better here than in the illinois game.

all in all, i would say, wisconsin wins this match-up (did i mention, penn st. is SLOW?), in crappy-valley, AT LEAST 45% of the time. at +230 wisconsin is a great play.

tlt

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with lots of this post

Penn St is not slow
Penn St is faster than Wisconsin

Wisconsin had so many passing yards v Illinois because they fell way behind and middle passing routes are the weak spot on the Illini D. However, by turning Wisconsin to pass first, Illinois won the turnover battle.
Don't forget how 'lucky' that Wisconsin pass total v Illinois was. The Badgers had a player on the ground catch a 40+ yard pass after two Illini both bobbled what should've been a pick. Also, Beckum had a 35 yard completion that he didn't catch. The announcers in the booth were stunned when the completion stood, which flipped Wisconsin from their own 10 to their own 45 down 24-13. Ummm....Wisconsin never held down the Illini rushing. Illinois scored TDs on 2 of their 4 drives in the second half v Wisconsin. It took some incredible breaks (not only the two passes mentioned above, but also a fumble incorrectly blown dead that would've given Illinois a 38-19 lead) to keep the Badgers in the game.
Wisconsin never handled the Illini rushing attack well (though I doubt that is relevant at all considering PSU's offensive shceme).
Illinois drives
2nd qtr
10 plays--42 yards--FG
7 plays--75 yards--TD
3 plays--0 yards--punt
3rd qtr
9 plays--79 yards--TD
3 plays-- -3 yards--punt
4th qtr
4 plays--32 yards--punt
9 plays--71 yards--TD
4 plays--11 yards--clocked out the game

As far as Illinois-Mizzou, it should be noted that Mizzou returned a fumble 101 yds for a TD, returned a punt 66 yards for a TD, and kicked a FG to end the first half after Illinois fumble a kick return. The Mizzou offense only scored 23 points, which is far below their average. In addition, the Tigers only averaged 6.6 yards per pass play, which is a very modest number. It would be average to slightly above average pass defense. Mizzou scored on 1 of 5 first qtr possessions, 1 of 3 second qtr, 1 of 4 3rd qtr, and 1 of 3 4th qtr. I fail to see how that is scoring at will. It's above average, but not at will.


LOL @ the Badgers resorting to the air and that being a good thing. 2+ picks is a given if Wisconsin has to throw the ball 40 times.

You are right that Penn St's offense is not dynamic and it is hurting them. They do have the skill players with Williams-Butler-Norwood at wideout. They haven't shown an ability to capatilize on that.


The big11ten criticisms of dynamic offenses, in general though, is an old, tired and incorrect statement.

Does everyone forget Chuck Long under Hayden Fry at Iowa in the 80s? What about the Jim Everett Purdue teams? Mike White with Dave Wilson, Tony Eason, and Jack Trudeau at Illinois a few years before Jeff George played at both Purdue and Illinois? Iowa and Illinois were right there with Ohio State as the second best programs in the big11ten from 1982-1991 or something precisely because they did throw the ball all over the place. Look at the current set of offenses: Purdue under Tiller has played "basketball-on-grass" since 97, N'Western and Illinois use the shotgun spread rushing attack that West Virginia is known for, Indiana's offense has been unreal under Antwan Randle El in the mid90s to the Kellen Lewis and James Hardy shotgun spread pass of today, and MSU hasn't completely left behind the offense of John L. Smith that brought L'ville to national prominance. Just because Wisconsin and Penn St play a boring style doesn't mean the conference does as a whole.

BTW---I think the Wisconsin ML might be a good play, but had to correct many of the statements here.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Good post MT2R, though your last line sums it up. Both of these teams IMO are bad and can find ways to give the game away. I like the Wisc ML a good bit actually, though I hate betting against PSU and probably won't.

- C -

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, even though I said I wasn't going to bet any more games after last week, I've still kind of been eying the lines, and I may bet a couple games on a purely recreational basis.

My leans this week are:
Iowa +3.5
TCU -6
Kentucky +9
Notre Dame +13.5
OU/Mizz over 61

Out of those, Iowa +3.5's the one I like best, as it seems like everyone's piling on the Illini this week and they've been getting a lot of media attention for being "underrated" and underranked after their last two wins.

The fact that they're only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who's 0-3 in conference seems to reflect the sharps backing Iowa. Also, they're only favored by 2 according to Sagarin which while still bayesian is only lightly impacted by preseason rankings at this point of the season and is only impacted by them at all because Sagarin obviously has found including them at this point of the season makes the rankings more accurate. Also, Iowa had their best defensive game of the year against a Wisconsin team that also loves to run the ball much like Illinois.

Add in the obvious letdown factor with Illinois being a young team that's not used to success and could very easily overlook an 0-3 team on the road and I really think that Iowa should keep this close if not win outright. I may move money to a book with first half lines for this game as I think Iowa has a much better chance to outplay Illinois in the first half when the Illini don't really have their heads in the game than they do down the stretch if the Illini are trailing since Illinois is the more talented team.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice hit on the Bears ML...I see you are putting my strategy into practice

I completely understand why you are going against me here. I think my first post in this thread sums up part of the reason. This is a letdown game and I expect the public to be heavy on Illinois. Just as very few could see Illinois favored v Wisconsin last week, very few don't see Illinois covering. It's always a good idea to be with the 20% betting heavy amounts balancing the other 80% betting recreationally.

It sticks in the back of my mind how Iowa has dominated Illinois of late.

Two games that also stick in my head are Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincy (5-5) last season and UCLA (8-0) @ Arizona (2-6) in 2005. In both cases, the schools were having an above expectation season though they both had heavy upside dreams coming into the season. In both cases, they were coming off nail-biting big wins. Both cases were against inferior opponents on the road. Both got smoked. (I predicted both which is why I remember and love to bring the games up.)


That being said, I just think the matchups here are too lopsided.

I've added on to my position.

Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 3.15u to win 3u
with the previous wager, that makes the total bet on the game
Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 5.15u to win 5u

I see the lines moving more toward Illinois and I don't expect it to move back, so I grabbed Illini -3.5 while I still could.

From everything I've heard, the Iowa injury situation is bad. MLB and all-big11ten candidate Klinkenborg is out. The TE, Moeaki, is out. One of the safeties is out. All-big11ten LT Dace Richardson is out.

Iowa was already 118th in NCAAF for sacks allowed. Now, they lose their stud blindside tackle before playing Illinois, whom is 13th with 3.33 sacks per game.
Without a good TE, no pass protection, and the previous WR problems I mentioned, I just see no way of this team scoring enough points to keep close to Illinois.
It will take a +3 turnover day for the Hawkeyes, which is unlikely given the amount of times they will be under pressure and tackled for losses.

It looks pretty bad the other way losing the star MLB and secondary help. One needs experience and hard hitting to the outside to stop the spread shotgun rushing attack.

But, Iowa does have talented, experienced DEs which can help.


All the 'sharp' betting philosophy says to be on Iowa. However, the game matchups themselves are about the ugliest I've seen in awhile.

FWIW--I was expecting a 8-9.5 spread on this game.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Just wondering, do you have a reliable web resource for injury information? It seems like it's really hard to find anything accurate. ESPN only catches the really major ones and even when looking at what looked to be a legitimate, regularly updated injury report, Richardson being out wasn't even mentioned.

I assume that for an Illinois game, you have local stuff to refer to, but it would be really helpful to just have a site you could look at and find all the relevant injuries. For instance, I didn't see that Urrutia was going to be out anywhere last week and wouldn't have bet Louisville if I had known.

FWIW, I am feeling shakier about the Iowa pick now. The fact that Iowa's D played so well against Wisconsin now seems more likely to be because that's the last game that Klinkenborg played than that they have a similar style to Illinois. Richardson doesn't seem to be that big of a factor since he's only started one game all season, but I can see how that's a bad matchup for Iowa too. I may end up just betting the first half line now and leaving the game line alone altogether.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

sorry, no web page...stuff I read in premium chat rooms on the scout site for both Illinois and Iowa

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Ferentz did talk about injuries in his weekly press conference


I do see where your pick is coming from Iggy. For instance, the Iowa rivals boards has threads such as "Illinois only -3.5? WTF" and "I just put $1000 down on Illinois" written by Hawkeye fans. Seems like the typical, public square is all over Illinois.
Also, the Illinois boards are buzzing with ESPN gameday potential for next weekend v Michigan, FoxSports projecting an Illinois Rose Bowl, and normal ND bashing that shows the focus isn't on Iowa for the Illinois community. Hopefully, the players aren't thinking the same stuff.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL @ the Badgers resorting to the air and that being a good thing. 2+ picks is a given if Wisconsin has to throw the ball 40 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, that's 40 times for 392 yds,2 TD's. Wis. had the ball a full 8 minutes longer than illinois, indicating extraodinary domination of the game, since it was PASSING THE BALL. Wis. scored it's first 3 pts down 17-0 with 3.52 remaining in the half. illinois scored twice more, once following an int, as i recall, but perhaps twice owing to int's. i do not have a break down by halves of Ill.'s yardage, but the initial scoring burst by Ill. included the preponderance of Mendenhall's rushing (1st half, 100/160 total, ball in wis's possession throughout last 7 minutes of quarter). That pretty much echoes my statement above.

[ QUOTE ]
The big ten criticisms of dynamic offenses, in general though, is an old, tired and incorrect statement.

[/ QUOTE ]


yes, the annihilation of the two premier big ten programs by fla. and usc last year in post season certainly demonstrates how fast and well equipped these teams were to handle the SEC and Pac 10. because a statement is stale, old, and cliched does not rob it thereby of its wisdom. if you havent perceived the enormous gap that has opened between the other major conferences and the big ten, let me advise this mantra: appalachian state. appalachian state. appalachian state.

as to the mizzou material: what manner of interpretation it requires to question the domination of mizzou in that game is beyond me. to this i can only state, after 2 and 1/2 quarters, mizzou 37, illinois 13. 359 yds and 3 TDs through the air. i call this "scoring at will". i will concede the punt return and kickoff return as points. but those occured against an obviously poorly prepared special teams, and underscore the AT WILL portion of my statement. perhaps you regard 4th quarter scores into a relaxed opponent good effort. you're in fine company, Nebraska does too, they like their 21 pts vs usc before their wildly ecstatic fans.

snearing and pontificating are really wonderful substitutes for astute judgment; i wish you good luck in your plays.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
sorry, no web page...stuff I read in premium chat rooms on the scout site for both Illinois and Iowa

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mind divulging how many premium Scout boards are you on? Is it mostly for handicapping reasons, or just because you're a fan? (I realize why you have an Illinois membership obv. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])