Re: UFC 76
 

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not accepting the value of rooting for someone/enjoying the fight is a non-sports-fan's attitude.

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Not really, I am both. A fan of sports and a sports investor. However whatever I bet on, I will be rooting for period. Otherwise why bother betting? If you see a good bet and don't take it because of likes or dislikes you are selling yourself short.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Not betting against a guy (team or whatever), because you like them is a losers attitude. If you think there is value there you should bet Jardine.

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A lot of people in these threads aren't professional MMA bettors. I bet against Anderson Silva against Marquardt, and I really regret having to root against him.

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I am not a professional bettor myself. In fact I am a MUCH better boxing bettor than MMA bettor. I do well enough, but not enough to where I would quit my job and just bet. Anyways even if someone isn't a professional at something they should always try to improve. Just betting on your favs or against guys you don't like is kind of silly to me. If you see value in something and have an advantage I don't see how you don't bet it. People who say they are just small bettors and betting for fun sell thereselves short IMO, I know I have been there.

Re: UFC 76
 

Well, when it comes down to it, I like watching MMA and rooting for guys that I like. I'll never place a bet against the Chicago Bears or White Sox, etc. because that would totally ruin the experience of watching the game. Am I losing monetary EV? Sure, but it's so marginal and is more than made up for in the life enjoyment EV I gain having a good time watching the fights.

If you want to bet for or against any fighter, regardless of your personal feelings, that's all fine and dandy. I just think it's extremely rude to tell other people how they should enjoy MMA.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Does everyone agree that Fitch and Tyson are the best bets on this card?

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@ -115 and -150, yup.

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where are you getting -150 on tyson

Re: UFC 76
 

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Does everyone agree that Fitch and Tyson are the best bets on this card?

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@ -115 and -150, yup.

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where are you getting -150 on tyson

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As of this second, Tyson is -150 on bookmaker and fitch is -120

Re: UFC 76
 

Fitch is still -115 on Bodog.

Re: UFC 76
 

Couture's picks are in:

Liddell - Shocking, I know
Griffin - Claims Griffin will win all 3 rounds. Doesn't mention KO.. Since he's on the same team, I think that pretty much confirms Forrest's game plan is to stay the hell out of range.

When Couture bets on the same sides I'm on, I'm one happy camper.

Randy also has Griffin and Fitch.

Re: UFC 76
 

just my opinion, but i think tavares should be the slight favorite vs. tyson. also lol @ couture saying griffin wins all 3 rounds.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Not betting against a guy (team or whatever), because you like them is a losers attitude. If you think there is value there you should bet Jardine.

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A lot of people in these threads aren't professional MMA bettors. I bet against Anderson Silva against Marquardt, and I really regret having to root against him.

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I am not a professional bettor myself. In fact I am a MUCH better boxing bettor than MMA bettor. I do well enough, but not enough to where I would quit my job and just bet. Anyways even if someone isn't a professional at something they should always try to improve. Just betting on your favs or against guys you don't like is kind of silly to me. If you see value in something and have an advantage I don't see how you don't bet it. People who say they are just small bettors and betting for fun sell thereselves short IMO, I know I have been there.

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dude, I make $300 a hour playing poker, if I want to make a $500 -EV bet on a MMA event because when I go to hooters with some friends and watch the fight and it makes it more exciting/fun...then so be it.

side note: I don't think I'd bet against liddell no matter what (unless it was worth $300+ in EV)

Re: UFC 76
 

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Not betting against a guy (team or whatever), because you like them is a losers attitude. If you think there is value there you should bet Jardine.

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People can do whatever they want, the problem/what's hilarious is that you might say you'r ebetting Liddell for fun and some other people take that as advice.
A lot of people in these threads aren't professional MMA bettors. I bet against Anderson Silva against Marquardt, and I really regret having to root against him.

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I am not a professional bettor myself. In fact I am a MUCH better boxing bettor than MMA bettor. I do well enough, but not enough to where I would quit my job and just bet. Anyways even if someone isn't a professional at something they should always try to improve. Just betting on your favs or against guys you don't like is kind of silly to me. If you see value in something and have an advantage I don't see how you don't bet it. People who say they are just small bettors and betting for fun sell thereselves short IMO, I know I have been there.

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dude, I make $300 a hour playing poker, if I want to make a $500 -EV bet on a MMA event because when I go to hooters with some friends and watch the fight and it makes it more exciting/fun...then so be it.

side note: I don't think I'd bet against liddell no matter what (unless it was worth $300+ in EV)

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Re: UFC 76
 

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just my opinion, but i think tavares should be the slight favorite vs. tyson. also lol @ couture saying griffin wins all 3 rounds.

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QFT

Re: UFC 76
 

I wouldn't really put much stock into what Randy says in regards to Shogun/Griffin. As objective as he can be (picking against his good friend Hendo against Rampage), he isn't going to be able pick against someone in his camp. I think the fact that he picks Forrest by UD shows what kind of confidence he has with this fight.

Re: UFC 76
 

can this be watched online?

Re: UFC 76
 

I just got back from bellagio and the lines were -125 fitch -105 Sanches (for some reason I thought bodog had fitch @ +115, guess I was way off..), +275 Jardine, and +275 Griffin...I took the -ev bet just to have something to root for and layed $300 on Griffin....

Re: UFC 76
 

I ordered ufc 76 has coverage started? so far tv is blank.

Re: UFC 76
 

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can this be watched online?

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round by round


web page

Re: UFC 76
 

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I ordered ufc 76 has coverage started? so far tv is blank.

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8pm cetral..call your cable company if you have a blank screen.

Re: UFC 76
 

Coverage started in the middle of round 1 of the Griffen fight were there any fights previous to this? I want to know if I need to call and bitch for a partial refund.

Re: UFC 76
 

***** Spoiler *****






Forrest/Shogun round 1 absolutely amazing. Forrest with a great game plan (Couture's influence?) Very controlled, absolutely great ground defense from the bottom and ability to get back up. He seemed to actually out box shogun.

Re: UFC 76
 

******Spoiler******








Round 2 of the Forrest/shogun fight. Forrest eats some ground and pound, especially 1 big elbow that cuts open forrest's forehead. Shogun starts gassing like crazy and Forrest may have pulled the round out in the last 1:30. Tough call for who wins this round. Fight has to be 19-19 or 20-18 griffin at this point.

Re: UFC 76
 

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just my opinion, but i think tavares should be the slight favorite vs. tyson. also lol @ couture saying griffin wins all 3 rounds.

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QFT

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QFT

Re: UFC 76
 

********Spoiler**********










Forrest/Shogun - What an unbelievable fight!!!!!111eleven God, that was so spectacular. Best fight I've seen in a long time. WOwowowow. Randy Couture has a hell of a lucrative future picking fights if he ever wants it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 76
 

Chuck Lidell v Keith Jardine fight

God, Jardine looks crazy he's so herky jerky when he's fighting. That's gotta make the timing a little difficult. Round 1 - Chuck lands a few more punches, does more damage. Jardine is beating the [censored] out of Chuck's lead leg and left side. If the fight goes very long this is gonna be a real problem. Round 2 - holy [censored]. Jardine drops Chuck!! Chuck does a little damage to Jardine's face but Chuck's side is absolutely raw and he's moving slower on that beaten left leg. Jardine's gameplan seems to be working. Jardine definitely takes round 2, looking better the later the round goes. Round 3 - Chuck just isn't landing much of anything. Jardine is staying patient and utilizing leg and body kicks to keep chuck off balance. Definitely out punching Chuck. Jardine is winded, badly winded. Can he hold on? OMG!!?!?? Absolutely incredible.

Re: UFC 76
 

Went 2-0 good job everyone that bet on Tyson and Fitch

Re: UFC 76
 

ship it with forrest....I wish I wasnt a Lidell fan I would have made like 1600 tonight...

Re: UFC 76
 

lol nice call on forest I just couldnt pull the trigger on that one

Re: UFC 76
 

Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

Re: UFC 76
 

Talk about an ironic title for the event.

I hope they call an upcoming event "UFC XX: Decision", so 4/5 won't go the distance.

Re: UFC 76
 

HAHAHAHAHA

I WAS MOCKED FOR PICKING FORREST

BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Note: I haven't actually seen the fights yet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
was occupied tonight. The recap i read said pretty much 30-27 griffin, and he got his sub in the last minute of a fight he dominated. I'm basking in sweet victory for this one. And also looking for a place to watch it online fo free.

Re: UFC 76
 

dominated is a bit of a stretch, i think shogun was winning the first half of the fight, but from the mid 2nd round on shogun basically demonstrated the definition of the term "gassed," he pretty much looked like he was moving in slow motion

i don't think there is any doubt in anyone's mind that forrest trained harder and wanted this win more than his opponent

one of my first thoughts after this fight was wondering just how much value there is in seeing fighters train firsthand, i couldn't help thinking about how confident performify was in houston alexander after seeing him in person before his last fight and comparing that to the rumors that shogun appeared out of shape coming in to this fight

Re: UFC 76
 

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HAHAHAHAHA

I WAS MOCKED FOR PICKING FORREST

BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Note: I haven't actually seen the fights yet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
was occupied tonight. The recap i read said pretty much 30-27 griffin, and he got his sub in the last minute of a fight he dominated. I'm basking in sweet victory for this one. And also looking for a place to watch it online fo free.

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

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Thats stupid unless you're a proffessional sports bettor. If I like someone enough to enjoy the fight without betting why should I bet against him just for a little value bet? I make more than enough playing poker and the 300 or 1k bet I make is pretty meaningless. If I bet its for enjoyment only, I'll only bet if the dude I like is a dog getting a decent price, or if I dont know either of the guys and I feel I can make a good bet to make the fight more exciting. I dont see anything wrong with that.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Talk about an ironic title for the event.

I hope they call an upcoming event "UFC XX: Decision", so 4/5 won't go the distance.

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lol I didnt even think of that....thats pretty funny. 15 seconds more and all 5 go the distance..

Re: UFC 76
 

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

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lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct?

One of my main points that was bashed

"MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better."

People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights.

Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up"

I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win

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I think that about covers it.



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However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

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Well, that's what I get for breaking my own rules.
Ah well, still made 3u+... good enough.

Re: UFC 76 *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Performify

Re: UFC 76
 

I got really sloppy drunk at the bar and don't really remember much clearly after Fitch/Diego. Shogun getting tapped out pushed me over the edge and I threw up a bunch, though. Can't believe Jardine ruined Wandy/Chuck. THANKS DANA!

Re: UFC 76
 

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

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Thats stupid unless you're a proffessional sports bettor. If I like someone enough to enjoy the fight without betting why should I bet against him just for a little value bet? I make more than enough playing poker and the 300 or 1k bet I make is pretty meaningless. If I bet its for enjoyment only, I'll only bet if the dude I like is a dog getting a decent price, or if I dont know either of the guys and I feel I can make a good bet to make the fight more exciting. I dont see anything wrong with that.

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Yeah,yeah everyone here makes a ton playing poker. Like that somehow justifies saying stupid stuff and costing yourself money.

Re: UFC 76
 

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

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lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct?

One of my main points that was bashed

"MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better."

People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights.

Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up"

I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning.

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Just read this post, I haven't followed the background and know nothing about the bashing or whatnot. I will say that I have thought about the "not yet a science" nature, and I think you might be on to something. I'll admit that my support means little, I know very little about MMA, just a fan, and less about betting on it. But I play winning poker and do watch all the fights, so FWIW, I agree.

Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine.

Re: UFC 76
 

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Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine.

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That's not a bad notion. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to gauge before they fight a lot of the time. You could go by weight for the heavyweights, but who would have thunk Couture, giving up x pounds, would manhandle Gonzaga in what basically looked like a strength-based competition.