Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's the way I read it and it looks like TN's reasoning is sound. Having a random 20 BI downswing is not the same as starting with 20 BI and losing it all. It is possible to have multiple 20 BI swings on the road to bustoville with a 20 BI bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

We know that it's not the same . None of us even questioned this at all . You may want to re-read the thread again since I was the one to first make this distinction .

I provided a "correct" answer to the way I interpreted the problem .

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting seeing as half the posts were on that very topic. Never mind then, not worth the time.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
You may want to re-read the thread again since I was the one to first make this distinction .

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you were the first one to explicitly make a distinction that nobody needed, because the rest of us knew what we wanted to know, and you were "correctly" answering a completely different problem, that nobody gave a [censored] about.

So kudos on being "correct", while also managing to be completely irrelevant, I guess.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Depends how aggressive you are in regards to table selection. Play only unknowns/loose-passives, you are bound not to swing too drastically, although you should expect some 10-buyin downers on a semi regular basis.

Play some tough aggressive opponents, expect some 30-buyin downers.

At least that is the way it was for me.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel sorry that I brought up this old thread

[/ QUOTE ]

i was so excited to wander into this forum and see this thread on the front page. but after reading it, i now regret starting it.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
i was so excited to wander into this forum and see this thread on the front page. but after reading it, i now regret starting it

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

1) Your question was answered
2) It could not be predicted it would develop this way
3) TNixon was spurred on to really investigate the question at hand, and he probably learned a thing or two about spending one's time fruitfully viz. heated debates on "teh internets", eh? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Besides, it was a good question and many knowledeable people answered you.

Cheers,

Smurf

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i was so excited to wander into this forum and see this thread on the front page. but after reading it, i now regret starting it

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

1) Your question was answered
2) It could not be predicted it would develop this way
3) TNixon was spurred on to really investigate the question at hand, and he probably learned a thing or two about spending one's time fruitfully viz. heated debates on "teh internets", eh? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Besides, it was a good question and many knowledeable people answered you.

Cheers,

Smurf

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest TN was probably the one who learned the most in this thread though (not intended to imply that you were not knowledgeable before TN) since he was the one who took the time to actually try and learn/understand. So it was probably EV+ for him that Jay was a bit pig-headed about his view of the problem.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

I play .5/1 using good game selection. As far as downsings... there aren't any.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Ok for real I have 13k hands only, beating it at 15+PTBB/100

my biggest downswings was 4 buyins... it was prolly a 4 buyin hit n run...

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

amen

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

You're crushing these games and you may be the world's best game selector. You'll still suffer +4 BI downswings. Why would you want to dispute that? It's just a fact of life, it has nothing to do with your abilities. I had a -60BB session in a LHE game I usually destroy a couple of days ago, but I was 0-for-7 with aces and kings. It happens. Last year I was gang-probing the Crypto 7CS game for +7.5BB/100 over 12,000 hands and thought I was God's mentor, when they hit me with a -250BB carnage over two sessions. Have you stumbled upon an anti-suckout charm? C'mon dude!

Cheers,

Smurf

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

You will have big downswings. Even if you select the game very well, villains will catch cards. 10 buyins up or down is pretty common for me.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]
Whahaha, wait until you'll hit 20 buy-in downswing some day, no matter how good your playing.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could trust you for not taking out hh, etc, etc I would accept this for $5000.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

he will try to outfold himself, and still lose 20 buy-ins, rofl.
I hope, he was joking.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could trust you for not taking out hh, etc, etc I would accept this for $5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would do that too. I don't know why you think you will only be a great player if you don't have that downswing. All the great players have that kind of a downswing. You think that 2+2ers have that downswings because we suck? LOL

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could trust you for not taking out hh, etc, etc I would accept this for $5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be in for as much as I can afford if you could find a way to make this legit...which is unlikely.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could trust you for not taking out hh, etc, etc I would accept this for $5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be in for as much as I can afford if you could find a way to make this legit...which is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that I wouldn't trust noone that he wouldn't make some adjustments in his data.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have have a bigger downswing than 4 bi's, i don't care how well you game select enjoy running hot

[/ QUOTE ]

we should do a prop bet.
who wants to lay me odds for making it to 30k hands w/ out a downswing bigger than 4BI, how about 40k, or 50k, any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

u serious? how much money do you have?

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be in for as much as I can afford if you could find a way to make this legit...which is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]
I second this.

Or third it.

Or seventh.

Or whatever we're up to now.

No way in hell you make it through 30k hands without a downswing bigger than 4bi without a guardian angel over your shoulder telling you when to fold.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

If you play HUSNGs on a site tracked by sharkscope, we can turn this into something verifiable. 30k hands is going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 games.

If so, I would be willing to put money down that at some point in your next 500 games, you will have a downswing bigger than 4bi. I'd probably be willing to give you 6, 8, or maybe even 10.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

you're right. it'd be very hard to trust me, and i never said good players don't experience downswings... it was just for fun

i also don't think i'm playing any where near perfect.

but i am taking the ego out and stop playin gwhen i encounter tough opponents

and it's so full of fisshhhhh


the bet idea was just for fun

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're right. it'd be very hard to trust me, and i never said good players don't experience downswings... it was just for fun

i also don't think i'm playing any where near perfect.

but i am taking the ego out and stop playin gwhen i encounter tough opponents

and it's so full of fisshhhhh


the bet idea was just for fun

[/ QUOTE ]


another thing I do is when I know i am playing against a bad player, they can get lucky on me and win 4 buyins but they usually get greedy stay on the table forever and eventually go bust.

the hit n runs are usually for 40 bucks, maybe 100, but when you start rebuying 3 or 4 times, people usually get greedy

i've busted people that were 8 buyins ahead of me before

i am very honest with myself when it comes to game selection and it goes both ways, if I KNOW this guy sux, i'll stay at the table and eventually they go bust

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

There is an online tracking software that I always see in bbv. I think it works exactly like PT, and you can't lie on it. People do data mine and sell the info these days. Actually, someone could data-mine all the sessions if the bet was still legit.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

INSTA-CALL. I was right he IS joking.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
INSTA-CALL. I was right he IS joking.

[/ QUOTE ]

no i'll take the bet. let me know

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

It would be a little silly for anybody to take you up on your bet at this point.

[ QUOTE ]
i've busted people that were 8 buyins ahead of me before

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people would consider dropping 8 buyins an 8 buyin downswing, regardless of whether it happens in a single session or across multiple sessions.

And you've never had an 8 buyin downswing, right? I mean, if you're so confident about not ever dropping 4 over 30k hands...

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Meh just post a graph already SV

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most people would consider dropping 8 buyins an 8 buyin downswing

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, I wanted to say that ... me [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Oh well, as long as someone said it. There's a Zen-like beauty to its crystal-clear logic.

Cheers,

Smurf

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Guys, the way he stated it he wants a prop bet that he MAKES it to 30k without a 4 BI downer. So that's 13k already under his belt.

This is my 1/2 graph winning for 16.11 PTBB over the last 17k hands and it has a 12, 5 and 8-9 BI downswing in it.

http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q303/MaterLJ/12.jpg

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

[ QUOTE ]
he wants a prop bet that he MAKES it to 30k without a 4 BI downer

[/ QUOTE ]

but he's already admitted to having at least one 8 BI downer.

The bet is already lost.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

20/14 ftw. Nit it up for three weeks and you're there!

I am pretty sure I have bigger swings than almost all of you, playing something like 48/33 at 1000nl. 10 BI downers are not extremely uncommon, and I really have very good tilt control.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Speak of the devil, another 5 BI downswong!

But I see dude already admitted to it not being possible.